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Hal Finney's $10 Million BTC - Is It Becoming A Reality?

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Written by   90
1 month ago

The Real Satoshi Prediction?

It has long been thought that Hal was indeed Satoshi. Hal Finney passed away on the 28th of August 2014 as a result of complications connected to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. I guess the most logical explanation for this idea is the fact that Hal was the recipient of the first Bitcoin transaction on the network. If you were Satoshi, would you not test the network by sending yourself BTC? This is a very logical and convincing proposal. 

Regardless of this being the case or not, Hal was very involved in the early days of Bitcoin and was instrumental in creating recognition for Bitcoin. He was mostly active on Bitcointalk, the official Bitcoin forum. It was merely a week after the genesis block that Hal proposed what seemed an impossibility back in 2009.

The Insight Of A Visionary

Hal proposed that if Bitcoin truly succeeded, the market cap would be that of the global household wealth. 

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

This is quite insightful and though while the economic backdrop has changed significantly since this prediction was made, it actually makes it even more likely. This idea was recently revisited and the new target would be in the vicinity of $18 million per coin. This now means that only just over half of the global household wealth has to take part in the Bitcoin economy.

Stock 2 Flow Confirms The Target

Whether you think the S2F model is legitimate or not is irrelevant at this point due to it being extremely accurate until now. So, until PlanB's model fails, it is a relevant and legitimate point of reference. 

The model actually predicts the price of Bitcoin to reach $10 million by 2030/31, which is a decade away. This sounds long but I have been involved in this space for approximately 7 years. Trust me, time flies by! Even if BTC falls short of this target, which I actually doubt due to the current macroeconomic climate, it will not fall far short.

This brings me to my final thought and why I advocate passive accumulation of sats!

Nothing To lose

There are a number of ways that people can stack free sats without spending time, effort, and money. The idea here is to not look at the dollar value of what you are stacking but simply allowing it to grow year on year. Even if you only have 200 sats coming in a day for 10 years, that will eventually be worth something. This would equate to 0.0073 BTC over the specific period and though not much now, at a BTC price of $10 million it would be worth $73K.  

This is a mere 200 sats a day! Running something like CryptoTab on an old laptop 24/7 is one way to keep sats rolling in without needing to do anything. The free version on mobile devices does require a captcha solve every 2 hours. However, on the desktop version, it simply mines non-stop without any attention. Set and forget! There are many other ways that require minimal effort but I like this particular idea because it just carries on in the background.

Building a mining network can also bolster that daily satoshi amount as well. Locking up approximately $800 worth of Bitcoin at current prices will also earn you about 200 sats a day. There are a number of options that you can make use of, such as BlockFi and Celsius. I am also making use of incredibly small amounts in this example so that readers new to the space can see how easy it is to set up something for the future. Finding ways to earn Crypto doing things you are already doing is also a great way to increase exposure without cost.

For us who have been around, there is never a time where you are generating too much BTC. Stack as much as possible! Large and small, it all adds up, especially in the long-term!

Disclaimer

First of all, I am not a financial advisor. All information provided on this website is strictly my own opinion and not financial advice. I do make use of affiliate links. Purchasing or interacting with any third-party company could result in me receiving a commission. In some instances, utilizing an affiliate link can also result in a bonus or discount.

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Written by   90
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Comments

Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

What Hal meant was the risk for the early adopters in 2009-2011 was pretty low. What he didn't say is the risk for anyone else is pretty high, since mining a little later turned industrial and prices stopped rising exponentially (from 0.01 to 100 inside a year). The people in Bitcoin early had different ideas. Anyway, I wouldn't stake any sats, I find BTC to be useless. If financial gain is the only approach there are plenty of better opportunities.

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