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Looking to the charts, one can see that a traditionally bullish formation is in play in the form of an ascending triangle. These formations statistically break to the upside 70% of the time, essentially making them bullish reversal patterns. This pattern is busy playing out on the 4-hourly chart and should have an answer for us fairly shortly. Currently, there appears to be some weakness, which could see BTC breakdown. However, “fakeouts” are also a possibility in any formation. As I have mentioned a few times, Bitcoin could actually reach as high as $38K and the bearish scenario would still be in play. This could provide the market some temporary relief, as a breakdown from $38K is extremely likely at this stage.
A breakout might also be short-lived and brought to an abrupt halt at $34k. We need to watch this level very carefully because there is a further underlying message being delivered.
What If The Pattern Fails?
This would be more of a warning than many are perhaps aware of. In a bullish market, bearish patterns are often negated. They often form but ultimately fail. The same applies to bear markets. If a bullish pattern fails it is often because the long-term underlying trend is dominating price action. This would ultimately provide further support that Bitcoin is in fact in a bear market, as opposed to a bearish trend. Obviously, either move would require confirmation.
This is a very important moment and so I have simply posted a very quick update to let you know that this next move is rather important in deciding a longer-term direction. Please exercise caution and do your own research!
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