If you compare soccer to sports like the NHL or NFL in the US, you’ll find that there are far fewer points/goals scored. It’s also a lot more random than these sports.
So, when it comes to betting on the over/under in soccer, there are a few things you need to take into consideration:
The average number of goals scored per game;
The value in the bet.
Let’s break down each individually:
The average number of goals scored per game
This is probably the variable easiest to find out. There are sites where you can download databases full of this information. Alternatively, you can just look at the league table and divide the number of goals they scored by the number of games played.
It will also help to look at a team’s defensive record. After all, if they are conceding a lot of goals, it might not matter if the opposition hasn’t scored that many previously.
These stats and more can help you make an educated guess if the match will go over or under the line. From here, dive a little deeper.
More and more stats are being tracked in soccer to help gain further understanding of the games. One of the ‘fashionable’ stats at the moment is Expected Goals (xG) but there are certainly plenty more that can help.
Even though soccer is random, xG can show us whether or not a team should or should not have scored in a particular scenario. The higher this stat, the more clear-cut chances were created.
The idea is to calculate a percentage chance that the number of goals will go over or under so you can use it for the next variable, which is:
Calculating value
This is the most important thing of all. Value bets are the key to making long-term profits from sports betting. You don’t need to win every single bet you make; as long as you make value bets, you will make money.
To determine if there’s value in the over/under market, simply using the following formula to turn percentage in the previous section into decimal betting odds:
Decimal betting odds = 1 / percentage chance going of over or under
Once you have this number, compare it to the bookmakers. If their odds are higher, take the best. If lower, wait for them to rise or don’t bet at all.
Let’s run through an example to make this all a bit clearer.
Example
Imagine that you calculated that there was a 75% chance that a match between Manchester United and Manchester City was going to go over 2.5 goals.
Turning this into odds, we get:
Decimal betting odds = 1/75% = 1.33
The bookmaker we want to bet with have odds of 1.55 for the match to go over 2.5 goals.
Since 1.33 < 1.55 we must take this bet as there is too much value on the table.
Conclusion
When betting on the over/under in soccer, remember to look at the average number of goals scored per game and if there’s value in the bet.