It’s absolutely possible to win at sports betting. However, to do so, you need to be doing the things that 99% of other people making bets are not.
Stop thinking of it as sports betting and more like sports investing. While this subtle change doesn’t seem like much, it has a huge impact on mindset.
Think of it like this: if you wanted to make money from trading forex or in stocks and shares, how would you go about it?
You’d probably do some research into why certain movements occurred and study to discover patterns that can be used going forward right?
Knowing this, why wouldn't you do the same thing for sports investing? After all, it’s the same thing: investing your money in a financial instrument and looking to profit on their outcome.
This is what most people don’t understand and why they are losing over their sports investing career.
There so many variables and statistics recorded for every sport that can help you make accurate betting decisions. Collect as much data as you can and filter out the helpful data and useless information.
Analyse it and look for patterns.
There are also a few other aspects that can help you win.
Bankroll Management
The idea of having a bankroll for sports betting is that once you've deposited into your account, you never need to do it ever again.
There are generally two ways to manage a bankroll for sports betting: using units or a percentage.
It’s absolutely possible to win at sports betting. However, to do so, you need to be doing the things that 99% of other people making bets are not.
Stop thinking of it as sports betting and more like sports investing[1]. While this subtle change doesn’t seem like much, it has a huge impact on mindset.
Think of it like this: if you wanted to make money from trading forex or in stocks and shares, how would you go about it?
You’d probably do some research into why certain movements occurred and study to discover patterns that can be used going forward right?
Knowing this, why wouldn't you do the same thing for sports investing? After all, it’s the same thing: investing your money in a financial instrument and looking to profit on their outcome.
This is what most people don’t understand and why they are losing over their sports investing career.
There so many variables and statistics recorded for every sport that can help you make accurate betting decisions. Collect as much data as you can and filter out the helpful data and useless information.
Analyse it and look for patterns.
There are also a few other aspects that can help you win.
Bankroll Management
The idea of having a bankroll for sports betting is that once you've deposited into your account, you never need to do it ever again.
There are generally two ways to manage a bankroll for sports betting: using units or a percentage.
The unit method involves betting a precise amount for every bet. Each unit would be between 1–2% of your bankroll.
For example, if your bankroll was $1,000, your units would be between $10–20.
The percentage method varies the amount you bet depending on the confidence of the play. The more confident you are, the larger the percentage of your bankroll you should use.
However, you should never bet more than 5%, even on bets that you are almost certain will win.
Consistent and profitable sports bettors never invest more than 1-2% of their bankroll per wager.
Value Betting
Once you employ bankroll management, you need to start making value bets.
In other words, understand how the betting odds on offer relate to a team’s chance of winning.
For example, a team considered the underdog against a team at the end of a 3-game back-to-back series may have value for a number of reasons, such as travel and fatigue.
It doesn’t matter if the bet wins or loses. If the odds are way higher than they should be, there is great value in that bet.
Backtesting
Once you have developed the strategy, you need to test it against past matches. If it shows signs that it can beat results from previous seasons, there’s a decent chance that it will work going forward.
Go back three seasons with your strategy. If it fails to be profitable in just 1/3, bin it and find another.
Also bear in mind that bookmakers also have access to the same data you have so may have updated their lines, rendering your new strategy useless.