The Afghan war began in 2001 and is still ongoing
The Vietnam War lasted from 1955 to 1965 for 620 years. The Afghan war began in 2001 and is still ongoing. As such, the Afghan war is the second longest running war in the United States. The question is, are the consequences of both wars going to be the same?
As many as 4,000 US-led troops and 15,000 Afghan government troops have been killed so far in the Afghan war. Millions of civilian deaths; 10 thousand last year alone. But there are no signs of US victory in this war.
The Washington-controlled Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Rehabilitation (SIGAR) says the country has 59 districts under full Taliban control and 119 districts under partial control. According to a BBC survey, the Taliban control 70 percent of the districts in Afghanistan.
One strong shadow government
It has been 16 years since the Taliban was ousted from power in the face of NATO attacks. But the Taliban was not defeated. The Trump administration says Pakistan's "non-cooperation" is to blame. Geopolitical commentators also speak of the secret fuel of Iran and Russia. But the UK-based think tank ODI (Overseas Development Institute) says the Taliban's main achievement is maintaining a viable alternative government across Afghanistan. The Taliban is not just ruling with guns, it has maintained health, education, financial management and the judiciary in the midst of regular NATO bombings. Each province has their own military commander as well as a separate shadow governor. They have had a ‘leha’ (code of conduct) since 2008 for staff-organizers at various levels, by which they are giving birth to an alternative regime-culture. They have established joint working relationships with local governments and international aid agencies in most provinces. They have about 500 judges working. The Taliban's shadow government has signed formal agreements with about 30 aid agencies. Private telephone companies are dealing with this shadow government. The bargaining work is in Dubai. Apart from the complete system of taxation from mining to agricultural products, civic activities like collection of electricity bills are being taken over by them in a large area. If necessary, they are also accountable to the people. The experience of ordinary Afghans is that the Taliban are less corrupt than government officials in Afghanistan. The Taliban's influence is not limited to the harshness of Sharia law.
Success is not limited to war
It was once thought that after the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban would split into factions and weaken. But after the death of Omar and the assassination of the next 'Amir' Mollah Akhtar Mansur in May 2016, the unity of the force was not broken. Rather, it has gradually become more than a force. The Taliban is able to take full control of the country immediately, even if it surrenders as part of any peace talks. As a result, no political gain was achieved against them through the war, it is clear. In recognition of this fact, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is calling on the Taliban for unconditional peace talks. But the Taliban wants to talk directly to the United States.
The Taliban have been on a spring offensive since last April. But their success is not limited to the battlefield. Diplomatically, too, the Taliban has been marginalized. The Taliban's ties with Russia, Iran and China are now open and much deeper, breaking the limited range of past contacts with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani has been cornered by the Qatari Taliban in many cases on the diplomatic front.
Russia and China's attitude towards the Taliban has been very flexible since the beginning of 2016. Russia publicly acknowledges such contacts. At the moment, China is desperately trying to find a political solution to the Afghanistan crisis in the interests of its Belt and Road program. They also have a special interest in the country's mineral resources. The most surprising development is the improvement in Iran-Taliban relations.
Guardian of the Shia Hazaras in Afghanistan along with Iran. In that sense, their relationship with the Pashtun-dominated Sunni Taliban has always been hostile. But now they are looking ahead, which on the one hand will reduce the Pashtun-Hazara conflict in Afghanistan and go against the interests of the United States as a whole.
The arrival of the mysterious IS on the scene
The Taliban's eyeballs at home and abroad
‘Success’ is in the recent Afghan situation
New elements have been added to the advent of IS. Who is helping ISK to take root in Afghanistan is a big maze. Started operations in 2014 in Nangarhar province adjacent to Pakistan. At the moment, IS is active in at least 30 districts. Forced to leave Syria and Iraq
Many fighters have also taken Afghanistan as a new workplace. NATO officials estimate that about 1,000 IS fighters are now active in Afghanistan.
As a result, the Taliban is facing major internal challenges. The Taliban have to step up military operations to counter ISK and prove to the youth that they are a major force against NATO. In this case, Iran-China-Russia is giving him the necessary cooperation. These three countries are against IS in their own interests. Russia suspects it is a new US project to destabilize Central Asia. Evidence of Uzbek presence in IS fighters in Afghanistan
Iran's concerns are even more acute. In Syria and Iraq, they are fighting directly against IS. IS is operating in Afghanistan under the name of 'Islamic State-Khorasan'. Naturally, Tehran is concerned about the announcement of the debut of IS involving its own territory. Several of the IS-affected Afghan districts border Iran. One of the regular victims of IS is Shia Hazaras, whom Iran has a responsibility to protect. Thousands are fighting in Syria with training in Iran. Russia and Iran are keen to cooperate with the Taliban in countering IS.
Russia's cooperation for the Taliban
Has been particularly encouraging. In the United States
Their position in bargaining has been strengthened. They also need to use the Russian border to avoid drone strikes in Pakistan
Can now.
Russia also benefits in at least two ways. It is a matter of emotional satisfaction for him to be able to keep the United States in a corner in Afghanistan. In this way, they want to take some revenge for the defeat in Afghanistan at the hands of the US-backed Mujahideen. In addition, Muslim freedom fighters from Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, are safe in Afghanistan
The Taliban's cooperation in closing down housing is a special relief for Russia. China is seeking similar cooperation from the Taliban in hiding Uighur guerrillas from Kashgar in Afghanistan.
In addition, China feels that the US agreement with the Taliban is inevitable because of the military situation on the ground. This has the potential to benefit China economically. As a result, China wants to stay ahead diplomatically in the future of Afghanistan. China is currently the most active international force in bringing the Afghan government and the Taliban into peace talks. China's contact with the Qatari Taliban office has increased significantly since the new Taliban emir, Haibatullah Akhunzada, took office (May 25, 2016). But China's further success in Afghanistan requires helping the United States find a dignified way to retreat from the 16-year-old war. The China-Russia-Pakistan trio has not yet achieved that success. Whether they have such a desire, he is also uncertain! Afghanistan is sending a bad message to the United States.
