India's lockdown was undoubtedly one of the harshest lockdowns in the world. The lockdown, which was issued in late March, has been easing India since a couple of weeks ago. And four months after the first Covid-19 infection was detected in the country, the number of infected people is now increasing by leaps and bounds.
Where are the places of concern about the Corona crisis in India?
Should India be concerned about the sudden increase in the number of identities?
Many may say that the statistics of India are not very bad.
The number of infections in India is more than three hundred and twenty thousand. India ranks fourth in the world after the United States, Brazil and Russia. But Kaushik Basu, a professor of economics at Cornell University in the US, says India ranks 143rd in terms of per capita infections.
The reproduction rate - also known as the 'R' number, which measures the ability of the virus to spread - has also declined in India. Infections are becoming more common and detection rates are rising.
But if you look at the number of infections in India, you will see that the number of infected people is very high. And in hotspot cities such as Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad, patient admissions and mortality rates have also increased. "If the infection continues to grow at this rate, hospitals will have to work as hard as New York to handle patients," said Kovid, a doctor in India.
In these cities, horrible news of deaths due to non-admission of patients to hospitals is coming. In one incident, a waiting patient died in the toilet, according to media reports. Due to the pressure on the labs, the test has to wait a long time or the results are too late.
India's economy began to falter before the epidemic. So it is difficult for India to go through a severe lockdown again. It will stop trade, more people will be unemployed. Therefore, India must now pay full attention to infection control.
"I'm really concerned about the numbers," said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
"It's not like the infection goes down on its own. You have to take action to make a difference."
In other words, if 80% of the people in India are infected, the country's population will have 'hard immunity' and the virus can be prevented. Says Dr. Jha: "It would mean millions of people would die, the set would not be acceptable."
The upward line of the transition graph in India has not yet come down, a permanent and definite downward picture has not been seen, says Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Michigan.
"I think there is cause for concern, but it would not be right to create panic," he says.
Is the low mortality rate in India misleading?
Both yes and no. The proportional mortality rate among patients diagnosed with covid in India is about 2.8%.
But there is controversy over this number. As with the various statistics of infections. Adam Kucharsky, a mathematician at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says the problem is that in many cases the infection is not reported or the time between death and infection is not taken into accoumy
India is still officially denying community transmission.
Experts say that at this stage of the epidemic, India may feel that the situation is not so dire, given the average case-rate of case fatality rate, or CFR. No worries.
"CFR is something that can be confusing," says Dr. Mukherjee. "If I believe the number of identified patients and the number of deaths is correct and divide the number of deaths by the number of patients who have recovered - if the patient's recovery data is correct, then the percentage of deaths will be much higher."
It is also difficult to calculate per capita death. Because the virus has not yet been able to gather information on where and how it has spread over a wide area of India.
Of most concern is the fact that three-quarters of the more than 9,000 deaths reported in Kovid-19 in India come from three states - Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi. Some states have underestimated the number due to their negligence in registering information. For example, the actual number of victims in the city of Chennai is twice the number given by the government. This is because of the discrepancy between the two separate death registration documents. There are also differences of opinion about the definition of death in Covid-19 in different countries of the world.
Economist Perth Mukherjee says a new study analyzing mortality in India, considering age, shows that young people in India are dying at a proportional rate.
In Maharashtra, as of April 30, 4% of the dead were between the ages of 40 and 49. The death rate among these ages in Italy was one-tenth of that
