Rememberable past
2021 will be remembered in history especially in the Middle East due to major political, diplomatic and geopolitical changes. The Gulf countries, used to seeking outside help for each issue, are now willing to talk to each other, a major change that actually led to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Saif-ul-Islam Gaddafi, son of Bashar al-Assad of Syria and former Libyan mardaahan Mu'marqadafi, has once again emerged from the ruins of the Arab Spring of 2011 and has come to the political scene.
Lebanon, which is in the Middle East, has become a tragic story of economic collapse, Iran has tightened its stance on the nuclear program under its hard-line President Ibrahim Raisi, threatens to attack Iran despite talks on an Iranian nuclear program in Vienna, while Iran is conducting war exercises in the Gulf, which Is being called an open threat to IRGC chief General Hussein Salami Tel Aviv. Considering these things, there is nothing wrong in saying that the region is clouded by war.
Thousands of U.S. military and deadly war machinery exist throughout the Middle East, but in the wake of the emerging conflict with Russia in Eastern Europe and the intensifying conflict with Taiwan, the debate over shifting military power to new bases has gained momentum, and U.S. interest in the Middle East has not been the same. After seeing allies hanging from American ships at Kabul airport, the Arabs no longer had the same confidence in Washington as before. Under these circumstances, Middle East leaders are now engaged in vigorous diplomatic efforts to minimize differences. The Arab Emirates National Security Advisor has met with iran's president to prevent attacks by the Iranian IRGC on ships near his ports. Although Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic relations with Iran in 2016, Saudi has now started talks with Tehran's representatives hosted by Baghdad.
Not only iran or its nuclear program is the problem, but the differences between Arab leaders are also a major reason for this. Saudi Arabia is restoring relations with Qatar after years of authority. Many years later, no member was absent from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Riyadh. Prince Mohammed bin Salman also visited member countries to activate the GCC, which aims to bring everyone together to counter the Iranian threat. The Arabs also distanced themselves from Turkey on the basis of their relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, but now Egypt and the Emirate are expanding their relations with Turkey, while Turkey, which is facing economic difficulties, also seems to be convinced of the warmth of relations with the Arabs.
In spite of all this, will arab leaders be able to find solutions to all problems on their own or not? So the answer is not very encouraging because conflicts in the region and external interference in them will not allow the Arabs to take all decisions. It is important to examine the problems and external roles, only then will it be known what the Arab leadership is able to do and where are the obstacles?Saudi Arabia is currently the focus of the world's attention due to the International Film Festival and the Formula E Carress in Riyadh. A statement made by Muhammad bin Salman in 2018 has gone viral again these days in which he said that the Middle East is the new Europe and Saudi Arabia will be a completely different state in the next 5 years. Muhammad bin Salman started 2021 with an attempt to correct mistakes made in the last year.
In fact, Muhammad bin Salman is trying to divert the waves against him. They are now trying to convince their neighbours that they are now completely different personalities and have learnt from past mistakes. At the beginning of this passing year, he took the first step towards Qatar and then tried to re-establish other neglected countries of the GCC. He started his recent visit to GCC countries with the Oman Empire, the same country that has been accused of reaching Yemen through which Iranian weapons arrive. After the death of Sultan Qaumis, oman's new leadership may have received the Saudi Crown Prince's red carpet under economic pressure, but historically Oman has never been an easy ally.
Saudi Arabia has always considered countries that are subject to it as allies, but obedience has never been an element of Oman's foreign policy.
Qatar was successful in fighting the Saudi boycott because it is wealthy and has influence in Washington. Now, after the boycott is over, Qatar may forget the bitterness, but it should not be forgotten that Qatar has considered its importance by playing a significant role in contacts with the Taliban and the withdrawal of Americans during the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Riyadh-Doha relations have returned to normal and Amir Qatar had a heated exchange with the Saudi crown prince, but will Doha mind the possibility of a new boycott during Muhammad bin Salman's rule? Although Riyadh's talks with Tehran hosted by Baghdad reached the resumption of trade relations between the two countries, is it possible for uninterrupted trade between the two countries to continue with the Yemen war? Will Lebanon's Hizballah Tehran, Riyadh not hinder warm relations? Only after the results of the ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear program will the future relations between the two countries be accurately assessed.
When Jamal Khashkji was killed, relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia became very strained, but now the two countries are expanding relations. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states do not like Turkey's relations with Arab political movements, but now Arab political movements have weakened, and authoritarian Arab rulers do not feel threatened by these movements. Nevertheless, the Khashkji case will continue to be a barrier between the two countries. Turkey will also not be willing to be part of any Saudi alliance against Iran, remember that Turkey imports large-scale oil from Iran and Iraq and has different relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia has the greatest headache and will continue to be in the future despite the ceasefire because the wounds of this war cannot heal in days. Even if there is a ceasefire, Yemen has inflicted so many wounds on saudi arabia, bigger and more powerful than itself, which will take time to heal, and in the event of economic damage, these wounds will continue to heal.
The Saudi Crown Prince has made more enemies than friends in the region since 2017 and now utern does not appear to be very effective in policies.In the Middle East, After Saudi Arabia, Israil has become the second major player, and after the Treaty of Abrahamwith the Arabs, it is now trying to advance these agreements outside the Gulf. Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in the world, is being placed at the top for normalizing relations with Israel, and US Secretary of State Intini Blinken has discussed the issue during her recent visit to Indonesia.
