Put this week down as an inflection point for bitcoin and bitcoin related stocks as the MicroStrategy Bitcoin for Corporation summit took place on Feb 3 and 4. It was a pivotal event, masterfully hosted by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, as 8197 attendees gather online to view the bitcoin playbook as laid out by MSTR.
Wonder what's in that playbook? Can we expect more FUD to drive down the BTC price so these corporations can get in? Maybe one should buy more MSTR since they will be a major beneficiary of their own event
Consequently, most of the Bitcoin stocks that I own on the list of publicly-traded stocks with bitcoin treasuries started to rise.
During the week, I managed to add both MARA and RIOT. Sure, I might be entering into the middle of the game but these miners are bellwether stocks for the industry. I should be able to use them to gauge (like canaries in a coal mine) when to start trimming my other larger and earlier positions.
In the meantime, here are my returns for the last twelve weeks based on the percentage gain/loss on the valuation tab on my discount brokerage summary page.
(DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice - only for entertainment purposes only.)
Enterprise
MicroStrategy (MSTR): +366.1% (Feb 5/21) +256.9% (Jan 29/21) +233.7% (Jan 22/21) +234.3% (Jan 15/21) +207.4% (Jan 8/21) +124.7% (Dec 31/20) +86.5% (Dec 24/20) +74.2% (Dec 18/20) +65.3 (Dec 11/20)+89.7% (Dec 4/20) +56.9% (Nov 27/20) +28.4% (Nov 20/20)
MSTR stock price still moving up. their BTC holdings are up 135% vs the stock up 366% . Over the last month, MSTR stock has risen faster than its BTC holdings but one factor is that MSTR has continued to purchase more bitcoin, having bought the dip at higher prices. They purchased another $10M worth of BTC last week. They will be a major beneficiary of their own event. Institutions are using MSTR as a BTC proxy.
Square (SQ): +9.1% (Feb 5/21) -2.0% (Jan 29/21) +1.2% (Jan 22/21) +3.4% (Jan 15/21) +9.6% (Jan 8/21)-1.2% (Dec 31/20) +3.6% (Dec 24/20) +6.9% (Dec 18/20) -1.7% (Dec 11/20)
Square's BTC stash has more than tripled in value from $50M to $178M but their stock price is now up 9.1%. I'm still waiting for them to make their next buy.
Mogo (MOGO.wt): +92.5% (Feb 5/21) +20.8% (Jan 29/21) +40.4% (Jan 22/21) +66.4% (Jan 15/21) +58.5% (Jan 8/21) -1.5% (Dec 31/20)
I bought these warrants a few weeks ago; it's another warrant play, which I have done well with (see HUT.wt below). Mogo is a Canadian fintech company with a crypto division. I see it eventually getting on the list at bitcointreasuries.org but they have yet to show up.
Bitcoin Miners
Bitfarms (BITF): +676.5% (Feb 5/21) +573.0% (Jan 29/21) +537% (Jan 22/21) +786.0% (Jan 15/21) +717.9% (Jan 8/21) +415.6% (Dec 31/20) +334.8% (Dec 24/20)+175.4% (Dec 18/20) +32.5% (Dec 11/20) +49.1% (Dec 4/20) +49.1% (Nov 27/20) +42.9% (Nov 20/20)
Hut 8 Mining (HUT.wt): +1352% (Feb 5/21) +1145.1% (Jan 29/21) +1258% (Jan 22/21) +1660.5% (Jan 15/21) +2243.6% (Jan 8/21) +524.5% (Dec 31/20) +411.6% (Dec 24/20) +249.8% (Dec 18/20) +39.2% (Dec 11/20) +50.5% (Dec 4/20) -4.1% (Nov 27/20) -6.0% (Nov 20/20)
Hive Blockchain (HIVE):+233.9% (Feb 5/21) +190.7% (Jan 29/21) +208.7% (Jan 22/21) +241.1% (Jan 15/21) +302.4% (Jan 8/21) +187.1% (Dec 31/20) +154.7% (Dec 24/20) +201.5% (Dec 18/20) +55.0% (Dec 11/20) +49.0% (Dec 4/20) +16.0% (Nov 27/20)
Fortress Blockchain (FORT): -4.2% (Feb 5/21) -10.9% (Jan 29/21) -1.9% (Jan 22/21)
Marathon (MARA): -6.8% (Feb 5/21)
Riot Blockchain (RIOT): +0.6% (Feb 5/21)
The miner group is showing a renewal of momentum, probably due to the MSTR summit. I managed to add some MARA and RIOT. Maybe the easy money has been made but the two can signal a slowing trend and therefore, can guide me when to sell my earlier positions.
Crypto Trading Platforms
Voyager Digital (VYGR): +2018.8% (Feb 5/21) +922.1% (Jan 29/21) +766.8% (Jan 22/21) +874.6% (Jan 15/21) +648.6% (Jan 8/21) +534.4% (Dec 31/20) +441.9% (Dec 24/20) +366.1% (Dec 18/20) +181.2% (Dec 11/20) +129.9% (Dec 4/20) +99.0% (Nov 27/20) +40.0% (Nov 20/20)
VYGR continued its torrid pace upwards with a stellar 2018% gain since the November 20, 2020 week. It doubled this week. Could it be due to valuation comparisons to the imminent Coinbase IPO? CEO Steve Ehrlich has been spreading the news all over the place, appearing before both stocks and crypto crowds. I noticed a language change in one of his presentations - sounds like the Canadian offering of the Voyager app might now be the first half of the year instead of Q1.
I still maintain that if BTC goes down in price, VYGR should be sheltered somewhat as they make money on the spread.
BIGG Digital Assets (BIGG): +69.0% (Feb 5/21) +22.8% (Jan 29/21) +17.5% (Jan 22/21) +32.0% (Jan 15/21) +53.1% (Jan 8/21) +32.0% (Dec 31/20) +24.1% (Dec 24/20) +21.4% (Dec 18/20) -12.9% (Dec 11/20)
One of BIGG's subsidiaries is netcoins.ca, a Canadian crypto exchange where I might start trading on. I have yet to buy more.
Bitcoin Funds
3iQ The Bitcoin Fund (QBTC): +78.0% (Feb 5/21) +59.6% (Jan 29/21) +57.4% (Jan 22/21) +80.2% (Jan 15/21) +109.9% (Jan 8/21) +54.5% (Dec 31/20) +24.7% (Dec 24/20) +21.7% (Dec 18/20) -16.8% (Dec 11/20) -10.1% (Dec 4/20) -15.0% (Nov 27/20) -5.1% (Nov 20/20)
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): +67.1% (Feb 5/21) +13.8% (Jan 29/21) +18.8% (Jan 22/21) +29.9% (Jan 15/21) +37.6% (Jan 8/21) +34.5% (Dec 31/20) +15.3% (Dec 24/20) +20.0% (Dec 18/20) -10.5% (Dec 11/20) -9.9% (Dec 4/20) -10.8% (Nov 27/20) -6.6% (Nov 20/20)
Both 3iQ Bitcoin Fund and GLXY were up. Galaxy presented at the MicroStrategy event and the stock price is finally moving up faster. They are a major beneficiary of the MSTR event as they presented on the second day, pitching their 'white glove' services to 5600 executives.
Actual Bitcoin
BTC purchased off Coinbase:+146.1% (Feb 5/21) +119.2% (Jan 29/21) +121.7% (Jan 22/21) +159.1% (Jan 15/21) +177.5% (Jan 8/21) +114.1% (Dec 31/20) +79.7% (Dec 24/20) +76.0% (Dec 18/20) +44.8% (Dec 11/20) +52.7% (Dec 4/20) +49.3% (Nov 27/20)+59.7% (Nov 20/20) (using bitcoindollarcostaverage.com)
Conclusion:
This week was a major inflection point for bitcoin and bitcoin stocks.
Over the last 3 months. this is what I can generalize about these stocks - miners are the first to spike, then the brokers/platforms and then finally the funds and infrastructure plays - the latter taking a longer time to unlock value. Also, the stocks seem to rise faster than the actual BTC holdings and the warrants even more so.
