(DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice; this post is for entertainment purposes only.)
The pre-Easter short week began well with the Visa announcement allowing payment settlement in bitcoin and ended on a combination Holy Thursday/April Fools day with the big news that Coinbase will be direct listing on Nasdaq on April 14, a mere two weeks away.
A good week for my Bitcoin stocks portfolio just got better, with the likelihood of an explosive month as historically, April to June have been good for bitcoin. Pundits are calling for $75,000 BTC, underscoring a higher bitcoin stock price just around the corner.
Looking at the updated table of publicly-traded stocks with bitcoin treasuries - it now shows 54 treasuries owning 6.54% of total BTC. New additions this week were mainly entities with relatively small amounts of BTC. Although not official, the table gives a good idea of the amount of BTC held by these entities. (I wonder if there might be double counting but then again, not all bitcoin treasuries have been identified.) I'm still waiting for more European and Asian treasuries to be added to the table.
In the meantime, here are my returns for the last twenty weeks based on the percentage gain/loss on the valuation tab on my discount brokerage summary page.
Enterprise
MicroStrategy (MSTR): +306.8% (Apr 1/21) +260.8% (Mar 26/21) +349.2% (Mar 19/21) +353.3% (Mar 12/21) +258.6% (Mar 5/21) +333.9% (Feb 26/21) +457.3% (Feb 19/21) +498.1% (Feb 12/21) +366.1% (Feb 5/21) +256.9% (Jan 29/21) +233.7% (Jan 22/21) +234.3% (Jan 15/21) +207.4% (Jan 8/21) +124.7% (Dec 31/20) +86.5% (Dec 24/20) +74.2% (Dec 18/20) +65.3 (Dec 11/20)+89.7% (Dec 4/20) +56.9% (Nov 27/20) +28.4% (Nov 20/20)
MSTR stock price was up from last week. Another Friday with no BTC purchase, their stockpile staying at 91,326 BTC (worth over $5.4B).
Interesting that MSTR market cap is only $6.7B, way down from their $11B high during the internet era (which was mentioned in this Charlie Rose interview in 2000.)
Tesla (TSLA):(Apr 1/21) -15.4% (Mar 26/21) -11.0% (Mar 19/21) -12.9% (Mar 12/21) -23.8% (Mar 5/21) -13.5% (Feb 26/21)
Still negative returns since my Feb 26 purchase. The market does not seem to like the bitcoin purchase weeks after original purchase despite TSLA making $1B on it so far. Even the news of consumers being able to purchase a Tesla with bitcoin (which Tesla will not convert to fiat) led only to a short term spike in price.
Fintech
Square (SQ):+4.2% (Apr 1/21) -3.0% (Mar 26/21) +2.1% (Mar 19/21) +9.9% (Mar 12/21) -1.7% (Mar 5/21) +4.4% (Feb 26/21) +25.6% (Feb 19/21) +23.8% (Feb 12/21) +9.1% (Feb 5/21) -2.0% (Jan 29/21) +1.2% (Jan 22/21) +3.4% (Jan 15/21) +9.6% (Jan 8/21)-1.2% (Dec 31/20) +3.6% (Dec 24/20) +6.9% (Dec 18/20) -1.7% (Dec 11/20)
After adding more bitcoin ($170M) to their stash, Square's returns have been up and down (up 4.2% this week) since I bought SQ.
Mogo (MOGO.wt):+284.9% (Apr 1/21) +224.5% (Mar 26/21) +357.7% (Mar 19/21) +258.5% (Mar 12/21) +149.2% (Mar 5/21) +200.0% (Feb 26/21) +329.4% (Feb 19/21) +262.3% (Feb 12/21) +92.5% (Feb 5/21) +20.8% (Jan 29/21) +40.4% (Jan 22/21) +66.4% (Jan 15/21) +58.5% (Jan 8/21) -1.5% (Dec 31/20)
MOGO.wts were up with the news that they have extended their mortgage cashback rewards to include bitcoin. Mogo is a Canadian fintech company with a crypto division. (My first $100 bitcoin purchase on the platform is now worth over $600.)
Banxa (BNXA):+170.9% (Apr 1/21) +148.6% (Mar 26/21) +207.8% (Mar 19/21) +108.9% (Mar 12/21) +3.0% (Mar 5/21) +5.5% (Feb 26/21)
Self-described as the Paypal of crypto, I have encountered this name before. While trying to make a deposit on Binance, I remember Banxa was one of 2 names involved in their payment processing, the other being Simplex.
BNXA shares were up a bit. The good news is that they showed up on bitcointreasuries.org with 136 BTC. Any time I hear about M&A in crypto, this is one name I often think of.
Bitcoin Miners
Bitfarms (BITF): +1194.2% (Apr 1/21) +1204.5% (Mar 26/21) +1281.1% (Mar 19/21) +1212.8% (Mar 12/21) +1055.4% (Mar 5/21) +1121.7% (Feb 26/21) +1542% (Feb 19/21) +804.9% (Feb 12/21) +676.5% (Feb 5/21) +573.0% (Jan 29/21) +537% (Jan 22/21) +786.0% (Jan 15/21) +717.9% (Jan 8/21) +415.6% (Dec 31/20) +334.8% (Dec 24/20)+175.4% (Dec 18/20) +32.5% (Dec 11/20) +49.1% (Dec 4/20) +49.1% (Nov 27/20) +42.9% (Nov 20/20)
Hut 8 Mining (HUT.wt): +2875.4% (Apr 1/21) +2578.3%% (Mar 26/21) +3172.6% (Mar 19/21) +3037.2% (Mar 12/21) +2570.7% (Mar 5/21) +2980.8% (Feb 26/21) +3240.4% (Feb 19/21) +2552% (Feb 12/21) +1352% (Feb 5/21) +1145.1% (Jan 29/21) +1258% (Jan 22/21) +1660.5% (Jan 15/21) +2243.6% (Jan 8/21) +524.5% (Dec 31/20) +411.6% (Dec 24/20) +249.8% (Dec 18/20) +39.2% (Dec 11/20) +50.5% (Dec 4/20) -4.1% (Nov 27/20) -6.0% (Nov 20/20)
Hive Blockchain (HIVE): +494.6% (Apr 1/21) +397.3% (Mar 26/21) +462.2% (Mar 19/21) +482.6% (Mar 12/21) +432.1% (Mar 5/21) +476.6% (Feb 26/21) +710.8% (Feb 19/21) +376.9% (Feb 12/21) +233.9% (Feb 5/21) +190.7% (Jan 29/21) +208.7% (Jan 22/21) +241.1% (Jan 15/21) +302.4% (Jan 8/21) +187.1% (Dec 31/20) +154.7% (Dec 24/20) +201.5% (Dec 18/20) +55.0% (Dec 11/20) +49.0% (Dec 4/20) +16.0% (Nov 27/20)
Cypherpunk Holdings (HODL): +56.4% (Apr 1/21) +64.9% (Mar 26/21) +121.8% (Mar 19/21) +84.8% (Mar 12/21) +79.2% (Mar 5/21) +93.4% (Feb 26/21) +93.4% (Feb 19/21) +90.5% (Feb 12/21) +62.1% (Feb 5/21) +19.4% (Jan 29/21) +22.3% (Jan 22/21) +45.0% (Jan 15/21) +76.3% (Jan 8/21) +19.8 %(Dec 31/20) +10.1% (Dec 24/20) +0.4% (Dec 18/20) -2.8% (Dec 11/20)
Fortress Blockchain (FORT): +194.1% (Apr 1/21) +189.7% (Mar 26/21) +229.8% (Mar 19/21) +203.1% (Mar 12/21) +176.3% (Mar 5/21) +171.9% (Feb 26/21) +136.2% (Feb 19/21) +27.0% (Feb 12/21) -4.2% (Feb 5/21) -10.9% (Jan 29/21) -1.9% (Jan 22/21)
Marathon (MARA): +98.5% (Apr 1/21) +47.0% (Mar 26/21) +74.4% (Mar 19/21) +64.4% (Mar 12/21) +23.2% (Mar 5/21) +24.3% (Feb 26/21) +77.0% (Feb 19/21) +58.3% (Feb 12/21) -6.8% (Feb 5/21)
Riot Blockchain (RIOT): +120.1% (Apr 1/21) +104.4% (Mar 26/21) +155.7% (Mar 19/21) +104.1% (Mar 12/21) +72.0% (Mar 5/21) +87.7% (Feb 26/21) +203.6% (Feb 19/21) +111.1% (Feb 12/21) +0.6% (Feb 5/21)
Mechanical Technology (MKTY): +124.4% (Apr 1/21) +150.1% (Mar 26/21) +102.5% (Mar 19/21) +52.9% (Mar 12/21) +25.9% (Mar 5/21) +37.6% (Feb 26/21) +122.7% (Feb 19/21) +69.9% (Feb 12/21)
Good Works Acquisition Corp (GWAC): -10.7% (Apr 1/21) -10.0% (Mar 26/21) -6.9% (Mar 19/21) +0.1% (Mar 12/21)
DMG Blockchain (DMGI): +0.3% (Apr 1/21)
Another roller coaster week for the miners - half up, half down. Some good news on bitcoin mining revenue. My newest buy being DMG Blockchain (DMGI).
My previous new purchase was the Good Works SPAC. It will merge with Cipher Mining, a subsidiary in the BitFury Group, which happens to hold a large amount of Hut 8 shares. Could this be the one that starts a M&A spree? Probably a bit early to say that.
At some point there has to be some M&A action in the miner space. You can build an arms race for only so long. Either miners merge with each other or a larger entity like a Galaxy (which has started a mining operation) or a SPAC takes them out.
Crypto Trading Platforms
Voyager Digital (VYGR): +4289.1% (Apr 1/21) +3609.8% (Mar 26/21) +3805% (Mar 19/21) +2570.9% (Mar 12/21) +2092% (Mar 5/21) +2348.8% (Feb 26/21) +2327.0% (Feb 9/21) +2158.8% (Feb 12/21) +2018.8% (Feb 5/21) +922.1% (Jan 29/21) +766.8% (Jan 22/21) +874.6% (Jan 15/21) +648.6% (Jan 8/21) +534.4% (Dec 31/20) +441.9% (Dec 24/20) +366.1% (Dec 18/20) +181.2% (Dec 11/20) +129.9% (Dec 4/20) +99.0% (Nov 27/20) +40.0% (Nov 20/20)
VYGR continued its torrid pace upwards with a stellar 4289% gain since the November 20, 2020 week. There's still so much good news for the company - valuation comparisons to the imminent Coinbase Direct Listing (April 14), a revised loyalty program, network effects. (VYGR's market cap is $4.45B CAD vs pre-IPO USD valuations of Coinbase ($100B), Robin Hood ($40B), eToro ($10B).)
Check out a recent update - some good nuggets of information.
Actually, this is the latest update - Analyst Pat Ackerman on the Alex Mascioli show on Youtube. They talk among other things, the idea of a takeout in the far future - not from a Robin Hood but a traditional finance type like a JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley. Also noted mention of an eToro $10B valuation upon IPO.
The only thing I did not like was the delaying of the Voyager app offering to Canadians. What was impending in Q1 is now Q2. Hope it's faster as I want access to the Voyager app as soon as possible so I can buy the VGX token and get interest on other cryptocurrencies.
BIGG Digital Assets (BIGG): +292.3% (Apr 1/21) +235.8% (Mar 26/21) +263.2% (Mar 19/21) +179.2% (Mar 12/21) +165.5% (Mar 5/21) +100.4% (Feb 26/21) +109.0% (Feb 19/21) +61.0% (Feb 12/21) +69.0% (Feb 5/21) +22.8% (Jan 29/21) +17.5% (Jan 22/21) +32.0% (Jan 15/21) +53.1% (Jan 8/21) +32.0% (Dec 31/20) +24.1% (Dec 24/20) +21.4% (Dec 18/20) -12.9% (Dec 11/20)
One of BIGG's subsidiaries is netcoins.ca, a Canadian crypto exchange where I might start trading on if the Voyager app doesn't come through sooner. Previously I did buy more BIGG shares after watching their presentation with Adelaide Capital.
I also like their Qlue product offering - comparable to product at Chainalysis, which has now privately raised another $100M and has a $2B valuation.
Bitcoin Funds
3iQ The Bitcoin Fund (QBTC): +159.3% (Apr 1/21) +134.4% (Mar 26/21) +154.3% (Mar 19/21) +145.2% (Mar 12/21)+111.4% (Mar 5/21) +100.1% (Feb 26/21) +124.2% (Feb 19/21) +120.1% (Feb 12/21) +78.0% (Feb 5/21) +59.6% (Jan 29/21) +57.4% (Jan 22/21) +80.2% (Jan 15/21) +109.9% (Jan 8/21) +54.5% (Dec 31/20) +24.7% (Dec 24/20) +21.7% (Dec 18/20) -16.8% (Dec 11/20) -10.1% (Dec 4/20) -15.0% (Nov 27/20) -5.1% (Nov 20/20)
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): +118.2% (Apr 1/21) +77.0% (Mar 26/21) +142.7% (Mar 19/21) +54.3% (Mar 12/21) +49.9% (Mar 5/21) +44.7% (Feb 26/21) +99.3% (Feb 19/21) +136.3% (Feb 12/21) +67.1% (Feb 5/21) +13.8% (Jan 29/21) +18.8% (Jan 22/21) +29.9% (Jan 15/21) +37.6% (Jan 8/21) +34.5% (Dec 31/20) +15.3% (Dec 24/20) +20.0% (Dec 18/20) -10.5% (Dec 11/20) -9.9% (Dec 4/20) -10.8% (Nov 27/20) -6.6% (Nov 20/20)
This week: GLXY released blowout earnings and planned US up-listing in the second half of 2021. Their market cap is still only $2.3B CAD. It's very obvious they will need to be on a bigger exchange.
I'm of the opinion that GLXY should have a market cap above VYGR ($4.5B) although they are are serving different areas within the crypto ecosystem.
I re-watched the MicroStrategy summit video, where Galaxy's presentation revealed that they should be a major beneficiary of the MSTR event as they pitched their 'white glove' services to 8000 executives. They are involved in direct investments in 90 start-up ventures, a trading desk, derivatives, investment banking, asset management and a $300M fund investing in the virtual space (ie. NFTs, virtual worlds). The value of these various divisions are slowly beginning to unlock.
Exchange traded funds - ETF
Purpose Bitcoin ETF - (BTCC): +25.0% (Apr 1/21) +14.4% (Mar 26/21) +25.3% (Mar 19/21) +20.5% (Mar 12/21) +4.7% (Mar 5/21)+0.6% (Feb 26/21)
Evolve Bitcoin ETF - (EBIT): +23.4% (Apr 1/21) +13.1% (Mar 26/21) +23.1% (Mar 19/21) +18.3% (Mar 12/21) +4.2% (Mar 5/21) -0.1% (Feb 26/21)
CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF - (BTCX): -1.3% (Apr 1/21) -9.4% (Mar 26/21) -1.5% (Mar 19/21)
Meanwhile, the two Canadian ETFs continued their steady rise. So far, BTCC, the world's first BTC ETF, has consistently eked out a small lead despite their rival EBIT initiating a price war by reducing their management fee. Already a battle is brewing.
However, a third ETF has entered the fray - CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF - whose major selling point - a tiny 0.4% management fee, is further exacerbating the price war.
Market Cap comparison - BTCC $92.87M
EBIT $71.10M
BTCX $42.51M
Actual Bitcoin
BTC purchased off Coinbase: +216.4% (Apr 1/21) +202.2% (Mar 26/21) +220.7% (Mar 19/21) +248.7% (Mar 12/21) +196.7% (Mar 5/21) +165.8% (Feb 26/21) +241.5% (Feb 19/21) +183.7% (Feb 12/21) +146.1% (Feb 5/21) +119.2% (Jan 29/21) +121.7% (Jan 22/21) +159.1% (Jan 15/21) +177.5% (Jan 8/21) +114.1% (Dec 31/20) +79.7% (Dec 24/20) +76.0% (Dec 18/20) +44.8% (Dec 11/20) +52.7% (Dec 4/20) +49.3% (Nov 27/20)+59.7% (Nov 20/20) (using https://www.bitcoindollarcostaverage.com/)
Conclusion:
Bitcoin seasonality has arrived. Looking forward to the Coinbase direct listing and more massive gains for my bitcoin stock portfolio but one needs to keep an eye at two directions - the possibilities of a BTC super cycle and a giant crash in the near future.
The goal for next couple weeks - BTC seasonality should be good for the market. Look into GLXY and BIGG.
My long term holds - all the ETFs, GLXY, VYGR, BNXA.
