(DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice; this post is for entertainment purposes only.)
In a week, when Square launched a bank , Twitter offering a $1.25B convertible notes deal, prompting speculation it will be used for bitcoin purchases and MicroStrategy making their usual Friday bitcoin purchase, there actually was a lot of doom and gloom in the stock markets .
Regarding my bitcoin stock portfolio, expectations were high on Monday as Voyager's (VYGR) superb earnings call happened but the share price tanked. It was a case of 'buy on rumour, sell on news', I guess. Same price drop happened to Galaxy Digital (GLXY). Even though it felt like my BTC stocks got crushed during the week but by the end of it, the drop was just a haircut.
Looking at the updated list of publicly-traded stocks with bitcoin treasuries - it now shows 42 treasuries owning 6.49% of total BTC. The top four entities with the most BTC include Grayscale, Mt Gox, Block.one and MicroStrategy. It seems rather ironic that the latter two are mentioned in the same sentence. The last time that happened was in 2019 when Block.one overpaid a record $30M for the voice.com domain name, which was sold to them by MicroStrategy - a pre-bitcoin Michael Saylor showing his visionary genius. Check out this video from DomainSherpa.
In the meantime, here are my returns for the last sixteen weeks based on the percentage gain/loss on the valuation tab on my discount brokerage summary page.
Enterprise
MicroStrategy (MSTR): +258.6% (Mar 5/21) +333.9% (Feb 26/21) +457.3% (Feb 19/21) +498.1% (Feb 12/21) +366.1% (Feb 5/21) +256.9% (Jan 29/21) +233.7% (Jan 22/21) +234.3% (Jan 15/21) +207.4% (Jan 8/21) +124.7% (Dec 31/20) +86.5% (Dec 24/20) +74.2% (Dec 18/20) +65.3 (Dec 11/20)+89.7% (Dec 4/20) +56.9% (Nov 27/20) +28.4% (Nov 20/20)
MSTR stock price has now dropped back three weeks in a row as they continue their plan to buy more bitcoin. Even after the $1B purchase with the convertible notes, they purchased another $10M on Friday.
Their BTC holdings were up 103% vs the stock being up 259% . Over the last few months, MSTR stock has risen faster than its BTC holdings but one factor is that MSTR has continued to purchase more bitcoin, buying at ever increasing prices. They were a major beneficiary of their own event; they now hold over $4B in BTC.
Interesting that MSTR market cap is only $5.9B, way down from their $11B high during the internet era.
Tesla (TSLA): -23.8% (Mar 5/21) -13.5% (Feb 26/21)
The market does not seem to like the bitcoin purchase so far.
Fintech
Square (SQ): -1.7% (Mar 5/21) +4.4% (Feb 26/21) +25.6% (Feb 19/21) +23.8% (Feb 12/21) +9.1% (Feb 5/21) -2.0% (Jan 29/21) +1.2% (Jan 22/21) +3.4% (Jan 15/21) +9.6% (Jan 8/21)-1.2% (Dec 31/20) +3.6% (Dec 24/20) +6.9% (Dec 18/20) -1.7% (Dec 11/20)
After adding more bitcoin ($170M) to their stash, Square's return has turned negative (-1.7%) since I bought SQ.
Mogo (MOGO.wt): +149.2% (Mar 5/21) +200.0% (Feb 26/21) +329.4% (Feb 19/21) +262.3% (Feb 12/21) +92.5% (Feb 5/21) +20.8% (Jan 29/21) +40.4% (Jan 22/21) +66.4% (Jan 15/21) +58.5% (Jan 8/21) -1.5% (Dec 31/20)
Finally, Mogo showed up on the bitcoin treasury list as I predicted they would. I bought these warrants two months ago and this week the MOGO warrants fell back a little, now up only 149%. Mogo is a Canadian fintech company with a crypto division. (My first $100 bitcoin buy on the platform is now over $500.)
Banxa (BNXA): +3.0% (Mar 5/21) +5.5% (Feb 26/21)
Self-described as the Paypal of crypto and I have encountered that name before - in trying to make a deposit on Binance, Banxa was one of 2 names involved in their payment processing.
Bitcoin Miners
Bitfarms (BITF): +1055.4% (Mar 5/21) +1121.7% (Feb 26/21) +1542% (Feb 19/21) +804.9% (Feb 12/21) +676.5% (Feb 5/21) +573.0% (Jan 29/21) +537% (Jan 22/21) +786.0% (Jan 15/21) +717.9% (Jan 8/21) +415.6% (Dec 31/20) +334.8% (Dec 24/20)+175.4% (Dec 18/20) +32.5% (Dec 11/20) +49.1% (Dec 4/20) +49.1% (Nov 27/20) +42.9% (Nov 20/20)
Hut 8 Mining (HUT.wt):+2570.7% (Mar 5/21) +2980.8% (Feb 26/21) +3240.4% (Feb 19/21) +2552% (Feb 12/21) +1352% (Feb 5/21) +1145.1% (Jan 29/21) +1258% (Jan 22/21) +1660.5% (Jan 15/21) +2243.6% (Jan 8/21) +524.5% (Dec 31/20) +411.6% (Dec 24/20) +249.8% (Dec 18/20) +39.2% (Dec 11/20) +50.5% (Dec 4/20) -4.1% (Nov 27/20) -6.0% (Nov 20/20)
Hive Blockchain (HIVE): +432.1% (Mar 5/21) +476.6% (Feb 26/21) +710.8% (Feb 19/21) +376.9% (Feb 12/21) +233.9% (Feb 5/21) +190.7% (Jan 29/21) +208.7% (Jan 22/21) +241.1% (Jan 15/21) +302.4% (Jan 8/21) +187.1% (Dec 31/20) +154.7% (Dec 24/20) +201.5% (Dec 18/20) +55.0% (Dec 11/20) +49.0% (Dec 4/20) +16.0% (Nov 27/20)
Cypherpunk Holdings (HODL): +79.2% (Mar 5/21) +93.4% (Feb 26/21) +93.4% (Feb 19/21) +90.5% (Feb 12/21) +62.1% (Feb 5/21) +19.4% (Jan 29/21) +22.3% (Jan 22/21) +45.0% (Jan 15/21) +76.3% (Jan 8/21) +19.8 %(Dec 31/20) +10.1% (Dec 24/20) +0.4% (Dec 18/20) -2.8% (Dec 11/20)
Fortress Blockchain (FORT):+176.3% (Mar 5/21) +171.9% (Feb 26/21) +136.2% (Feb 19/21) +27.0% (Feb 12/21) -4.2% (Feb 5/21) -10.9% (Jan 29/21) -1.9% (Jan 22/21)
Marathon (MARA): +23.2% (Mar 5/21) +24.3% (Feb 26/21) +77.0% (Feb 19/21) +58.3% (Feb 12/21) -6.8% (Feb 5/21)
Riot Blockchain (RIOT):+72.0% (Mar 5/21) +87.7% (Feb 26/21) +203.6% (Feb 19/21) +111.1% (Feb 12/21) +0.6% (Feb 5/21)
Mechanical Technology MKTY: +25.9% (Mar 5/21) +37.6% (Feb 26/21) +122.7% (Feb 19/21) +69.9% (Feb 12/21)
Virtually, all miners dropped this past week except for FORT.
Check out this tour of the Hut 8 facility in Alberta.
Friday's announcement of Cipher Mining merging with a SPAC. Could this be the one that starts a M&A spree?
At some point there has to be some M&A action in the miner space. You can build an arms race for only so long. Either miners merge with each other or a larger entity like a Galaxy (which has started a mining operation) takes them out. To do that, GLXY needs to have a much larger market cap.
Crypto Trading Platforms
Voyager Digital (VYGR):+2092% (Mar 5/21) +2348.8% (Feb 26/21) +2327.0% (Feb 9/21) +2158.8% (Feb 12/21) +2018.8% (Feb 5/21) +922.1% (Jan 29/21) +766.8% (Jan 22/21) +874.6% (Jan 15/21) +648.6% (Jan 8/21) +534.4% (Dec 31/20) +441.9% (Dec 24/20) +366.1% (Dec 18/20) +181.2% (Dec 11/20) +129.9% (Dec 4/20) +99.0% (Nov 27/20) +40.0% (Nov 20/20)
VYGR continued its torrid pace upwards with a stellar 2092% gain since the November 20, 2020 week. Price may have dropped but there's still so much good news for the company - valuation comparisons to the imminent Coinbase Direct Listing, a revised loyalty program, a soaring VGX token. It appears market bought on rumours and sold on news.
CEO Steve Ehrlich continued to spread the news all over the place (especially their Loyalty Program), appearing before both stocks and crypto crowds. (I noticed a language change in one of his presentations - sounds like the Canadian offering of the Voyager app might now be the first half of the year instead of Q1. Hope it's faster as I want access to the Voyager app and to buy the VGX token and other cryptocurrencies.
BIGG Digital Assets (BIGG): +165.5% (Mar 5/21) +100.4% (Feb 26/21) +109.0% (Feb 19/21) +61.0% (Feb 12/21) +69.0% (Feb 5/21) +22.8% (Jan 29/21) +17.5% (Jan 22/21) +32.0% (Jan 15/21) +53.1% (Jan 8/21) +32.0% (Dec 31/20) +24.1% (Dec 24/20) +21.4% (Dec 18/20) -12.9% (Dec 11/20)
BIGG had a big week. Lots of hoopla from the Youtube channels highlighting their netcoins exchange and other product offerings. It was their time to be in the spotlight this week.
One of BIGG's subsidiaries is netcoins.ca, a Canadian crypto exchange where I might start trading on. I did buy more BIGG shares after watching their presentation with Adelaide Capital.
I like their Qlue product offering - comparable to product at Chainalysis, which has privately raised $100M.
Bitcoin Funds
3iQ The Bitcoin Fund (QBTC): +111.4% (Mar 5/21) +100.1% (Feb 26/21) +124.2% (Feb 19/21) +120.1% (Feb 12/21) +78.0% (Feb 5/21) +59.6% (Jan 29/21) +57.4% (Jan 22/21) +80.2% (Jan 15/21) +109.9% (Jan 8/21) +54.5% (Dec 31/20) +24.7% (Dec 24/20) +21.7% (Dec 18/20) -16.8% (Dec 11/20) -10.1% (Dec 4/20) -15.0% (Nov 27/20) -5.1% (Nov 20/20)
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): +49.9% (Mar 5/21) +44.7% (Feb 26/21) +99.3% (Feb 19/21) +136.3% (Feb 12/21) +67.1% (Feb 5/21) +13.8% (Jan 29/21) +18.8% (Jan 22/21) +29.9% (Jan 15/21) +37.6% (Jan 8/21) +34.5% (Dec 31/20) +15.3% (Dec 24/20) +20.0% (Dec 18/20) -10.5% (Dec 11/20) -9.9% (Dec 4/20) -10.8% (Nov 27/20) -6.6% (Nov 20/20)
Both the 3iQ Bitcoin Fund and GLXY went up by the end of week. Galaxy presented at the MicroStrategy event and they should be a major beneficiary of the MSTR event as they presented on the second day, pitching their 'white glove' services to 8000 executives. Only time will tell when all the value in their various divisions begin to unlock.
I took out my cost in GLXY but then bought back in after a news release mentioning a blowout quarter - 650% increase in comprehensive revenue - increasing my cost base and decreasing my returns.
Exchange traded funds - ETF
Purpose Bitcoin ETF - (BTCC): +4.7% (Mar 5/21)+0.6% (Feb 26/21)
Evolve Bitcoin ETF - (EBIT): +4.2% (Mar 5/21) -0.1% (Feb 26/21)
Meanwhile, the Canadian ETFs began their steady rise. So far, BTCC, the world's first ETF, has eked out a small lead despite their rival EBIT starting a price war by reducing their management fee. Already a battle is brewing
Actual Bitcoin
BTC purchased off Coinbase: +196.7% (Mar 5/21) +165.8% (Feb 26/21) +241.5% (Feb 19/21) +183.7% (Feb 12/21) +146.1% (Feb 5/21) +119.2% (Jan 29/21) +121.7% (Jan 22/21) +159.1% (Jan 15/21) +177.5% (Jan 8/21) +114.1% (Dec 31/20) +79.7% (Dec 24/20) +76.0% (Dec 18/20) +44.8% (Dec 11/20) +52.7% (Dec 4/20) +49.3% (Nov 27/20)+59.7% (Nov 20/20) (using https://www.bitcoindollarcostaverage.com/)
Conclusion:
One needs to prepare for both a BTC super cycle and giant crash in the near future.
The goal for next couple weeks - the stimulus bill has passed, should be good for the market.
