Bear Market

I entered Bitcoin in March 2017. It was exciting times, as Bitcoin was in obscurity since the beginning of 2014 and the fall of the MtGox exchange. Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market and a time of zero interest, big problems, and disappointment. However, it remained in the back of my mind, and when I saw that it beat its previous ATH I knew it wasn't just going to stay there.

I have to admit, I was lucky. Because I read the correct news and I was alerted to buy at the right time in 2017 at a price lower even than $2000. I didn't stick to this purchase, I sold later, traded a little, bought again in September at $4000, and sold again later at $10000. The time between the psychological level of $10000 and the previous ATH was small, just a couple of weeks, but it was a time that I was feeling I made a mistake to sell. It wasn't though.

In the peak of the bull run of 2017 everyone was discussing Bitcoin, blockchain was trending and in almost all corporal presentations, there was a mention of blockchain infrastructure. The same is happening again, in 2021. Today we have the same organized marketing campaign in social and mainstream media. Everybody is discussing Bitcoin as Bitcoin delivers.

But there comes a time when we have to take a good look at the picture we see and realize the price has inflated to unsustainable levels. The governments are pretending the markets are free and just want to regulate Bitcoin and tax the investors. The corporations that bought have other plans. It will be exciting to see the peak of this bubble because the price of Bitcoin is in bubble territory once again..

This is a parabolic rise and not sustainable under any circumstances. Bitcoin should better crash from this level and not go higher as then it will be worse for it.

By the way, in 2017 around this time in March, most of us that were buying we expected retail adoption of Bitcoin as a method of purchasing and worldwide adoption. This of course proven to be a futile hope as Bitcoin fees risen dramatically and gave absolute proof that it just can't scale and it was a failure in the original terms of becoming digital cash and currency. It is not a currency and the use case of Bitcoin today is this:

A game for the wealthy to pass between them at a higher price. Whoever buys at the top losses. This is how it goes. Bitcoin is obsolete technology, that is sustained by 65% in Chinese mining farms.

Those of us that we don't hold thousands of Bitcoins don't care a lot about all of this. Nobody believes that the dollar will collapse and that Bitcoin will become the next gold. All these are fake promises and narratives that mean nothing to those that understand the markets.

There are countless signs Bitcoin is in a bubble today, just open your eyes and ears and don't be fooled by the shills or the cocky ones that will be happy to dump their bags and exit the market once the signal is given. Just today, I had two random people I knew very little talk to me about cryptocurrencies and their investments in a few of them. Today again, I heard conversations about cryptocurrencies on my local TV. I have a very bad habit of remembering everything in detail. This was exactly the same in 2017, just without the lockdowns part and the virus fears.

After the top, Bitcoin will crash dramatically and another two-year bear market arrives. The parabolic trend looks to be over, if it keeps going it will be over the next time, but I don't see it. I see a top being settled and not reached again perhaps until 2024.