It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been an interesting week so far, so we’ll see how accurate I can be. I also do a weekly video on Saturday’s over on my YouTube channel, where you can get my end of week overview of a few of the larger cryptos.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advise.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that last week there was a lot of price movement down, which got pushed all the way back up, and this week we see a lot of price movement up, that was pushed back down. There was a lot of price action, but we ended up more or less where we started, around the $35,000 price point.
The weekly chart is not telling us a whole lot at this point, other than price seems to be consolidating again around this range. We are below the 200 and 20 week EMAs, but above the 50. We can also see the Average True Range is starting to come down, showing the volatility is starting to calm down a bit on the macro level.
Daily Chart Analysis
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that we broke away from the trend I was expecting a couple of days ago. We came down and bounced off the $30,000 price point back on 26 June, and I expected us to stick around between that price and $33,000, but we managed to make it up past even my upper support line.
We currently have a downward day at hand, but we seem to be getting a lot of buying pressure when the price tries to get too far below the $33,000 support line, so this may be the new price we settle at. The market is definitely cooling off today, but if we can maintain this line, we might be able to see it start to push up towards the resistance lines and start testing those again.
We still have the death cross of the 50 and 200 day EMAs, but we have managed to push up and recapture the 20 day EMA. We are also in the strange situation where we set the new higher high back on 15 Jun, followed by the new lower low on 22 Jun, so we need to see where this current price movement manages to get to before it does a full reversal to see truly how strong that bounce was and where it might take us.
Hourly Chart Analysis
From the hourly chart, we can see that price movements have been quite the battle at times, we can see a few aggressive candles upwards, and also some periods where the price is forced down, but it takes a longer period of the prices to get shoved down that it has in the previous weeks.
From the hourly chart, we look like we are in a current uptrend, we pushed up past the 200 day EMA, and if the price pushes up from where it is currently, we will have take the 20 and 50 as well, and everything will be aligned in a clear upward trend, or we could be seeing the local top with how they are crossing over now. The next few hours will be very telling on if the current trend will continue or break.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance is still in an up trend as money is moving out of the alt market, but the last few days has seen this stopping and starting to reverse. This could be a nice signal that the markets are starting to stabilize and getting ready to start recovering, as money is starting to flow out from the big guy into the alts. Seeing this push back into the low 40s would be a very nice sign.
My Prediction
Making a mid week prediction is a little hard this week, especially with how the price is currently in flux. It broke away from my previous pattern, where I was predicting it to fall as low as $25,000, but with the current move up past the $35,000 price, this is seeming a little less likely.
Basically, I’m going to have to make my prediction variable based on what the next few days look like. If we can manage to maintain price at about the $35,000 range, and start seeing it trend even higher, that I would think that the markets are ready to start recovering for real. If this is the case, we should expect to see the price start moving upwards again, to start retesting the lines at $37,500, $40,000 and $41,000. Each one of those that we manage to take and hold, puts more weight on the fact the market may be ready to start pumping again.
On the other side, if we do not manage to maintain the $35,000 price point, and we start seeing the price going back down from here, this would a lower high than we set the last time, we peaked last week, and might be a sign that things are going to push back downwards again, possibly then moving as low as my $25,000 prediction, but possibly finding it’s bottom again around the $30,000 point.
The market is definitely in a weird place, and the technical indicators all show it could go either way as well, depending on how you interpret them, so it’s anybody’s guess really, and the next few days will dictate how the price is going to move.
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I also post a weekly price update video every Saturday over on my YouTube channel, where I will be discussing the weekly price action for some of the major cryptos. You can also sign up for my newsletter which I send out every Friday with news and whatnot from the crypto space, delivered right to your inbox!
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Want some more content right now? Check out some of my previous posts:
Bollinger Bands
Liquidity Pools
Impermanent Loss
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Originally Posted On My Website: https://ninjawingnut.xyz/2021/06/30/weekly-btc-2/