Today’s post will be a little different, as I won’t be exploring blockchain technology, technical analysis, or any of the usual topics I’ve been looking at. Today I’m going to look at the current price action and trends with the price of Bitcoin (BTC), and hopefully this analysis and prediction may prove useful.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advise.
Current Daily Chart
Please note, this is still early on in the day for the most recent candle, so we can’t really trust the price movement from it just yet.
When we look at the current price action on the daily chart, we can see that we are among a number of areas of resistance. We managed to sneak up and set a new short term high of $41,330.00 back on 15 Jun, but it appears that we have bounced from that resistance line and are starting to trend back down towards the lower ranges to retest support.
On the candle for today, the price pushed back up past my resistance line at $39,300, but was rejected back down. I would say this would help point towards the downward trend continuing, as it did not manage to secure itself back over that line.
We are currently above the 20 day EMA, but below both the 50 and 200 day lines. The 50 and 200 are also only a few days away from crossing, in the so called “death cross”, which is also not a great sign, but as the death cross is also a lagged indicator, it’s not always the best for long term predictions, but helps confirm the current state of affairs, which is a little bleak.
Current 1 Hour Chart
Stepping back from the macro trend and looking at the more recent price action based on the hourly chart, it’s more clear to see that we did reach up and touch that resistance line a back on 15 Jun and are starting a downward trend. We can see the current retests happening around the next resistance line down as well, so there is a back and forth battle happening a bit currently.
From this view, we are actually above the 20 and 200 hour EMA lines, but below the 50. We also can see that the 20 and 50 crossed over yesterday morning after the bounce back down.
Looking at the hourly volumes, another concerning thing is that all the high volume hours have been down hours, while all the sessions where the price made any grounds up, were relatively low volume movements. This means that a lot of the bigger money is working to push the price down, while only a small amount is being used to try and move it back up. This is also a very worrying sign to see for anyone hoping the price goes up.
Institutional Manipulation
What I actually see playing out here, based on the high volume sells and low volume buys. As well as looking at how the market crashed back a month ago, this would seem to line up with the way big money institutions have been leveraging their positions in order to soak up money from us normal consumers.
This looks to be following the Wychoff Market Cycle, which was first written about by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century. As big money is now playing the crypto markets, I’d suggest anyone that is trying to make money off active trading to familiarize yourself with this trading theory. I’d suggest this video from the CoinBureau channel, as it does a very good job of explaining it out.
My Prediction
What I predict the price of Bitcoin (BTC) doing for the next little bit is trend downwards. I have a feeling, since we managed to push up past the previous resistance line a few days ago, that this is the final “show of weakness” phase in the Wychoff accumulation phase, and we are going to see the markets get pushed down, at least as far as what I have as the lower support line around $30,000.
I’m actually expecting it to go lower than that, if this is the final push downward, I would expect to see it drop below that by a not insignificant percentage. I’m expecting us to dip below $25,000 before the market springs back up and does a final retest before re-entering the bull run to take us to the end of the cycle.
I don’t expect this to be a very fast process, I would expect it to take a couple of weeks for us to trend all the way down to what I am expecting to be the bottom. I am then predicting a little bit of sideways motion down around that level for a few days to a week, followed by the climb back up to the upper resistance lines over the few weeks after that, and then another period of consolidation around the top before the breakout.
All told, I would say we are looking at having the return to the bull run no earlier than mid August, possibly even closer to early September depending on how fast the markets move, and how much retail money the whales are going to try and soak out from us.
Again, none of this is financial advice, it’s just one guy on the internets opinion based on his own analysis, so you should always do your own research.
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Want some more content right now? Check out some of my previous posts:
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
Decentralized Applications
Earning Crypto
Originally Posted On My Website: https://ninjawingnut.xyz/2021/06/17/btc-prediction/
