1. Growing realization that Taliban can’t be defeated by military means alone
2. Losing public support for an unwinnable war
3. Suffering huge losses both in terms of men and material
4. Regional stakeholders (Pakistan, Iran, china and Russia) are wary of the American policy
London Conference: The 60-nation delegation declared support for the Afghan national process of reconciliation and reintegration in a way that is “Afghan-driven”. The London Talks aimed to galvanize support for Afghan development and provide funds to buy off Taliban foot soldiers to back up an extra 30,000 US troops being sent to Afghanistan to destroy the hard-core element.
Taliban Viewpoint: On the other hand, Taliban have called for the withdrawal of foreign troops before any peace talk can start. They are also distrustful of Western attempts to split the Taliban by buying off foot soldiers.
Pakistan’s Stand Point: the international community, at the London Conference has endorsed Pakistan’s policy of opening a corridor of dialogue with moderate Taliban to integrate them into mainstream. In fact, Pakistan is the largest stakeholder in Afghanistan. According to an estimate, Pakistan has so far suffered a loss of almost 250 trillion rupees, not to mention the loss of men, in the war against terror. It goes without saying that the spill over effect of the Afghan war has a direct bearing upon Pakistan.
Fund: A fund of $ 140 million has been pledged to help reintegrate Taliban foot soldiers into mainstream of Afghan Society. The present US strategy in Afghanistan focuses on the need to increase Afghan security forces; the Afghan National Army (ANA) to 240,000 and the Afghan National Police (ANP) to 160,000 for a total security force of 400,000.
Gen Kayani on Afghanistan : “We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but we don’t want to control it”.
WHAT IS THE ‘’STRATEGIC DEPTH’’
On one side, there is Pak-India border extending from kargil to the Arabian Sea and on the other side, we have the Pak-afghan border ranging from Wakhan to Chaman.Therefore the strategic position of Pakistan is very volatile especially if India manages to secure a pro Indian government in Afghanistan. In that case, Pakistan is left with the only one available sea route given that the northeastern and the northwestern sides consisting of small tracts of lands and mountains that cannot provide strategic support to our defense system. In this backdrop, we need a stable, prosperous and friendly Afghanistan that remains independent and sovereign.
Under the changed scenario, Pakistan cannot put all of its eggs in Taliban’s basket. Now, Pakistan will also have to look towards the Northern Alliance and Iran.
Pak-Afghan relations have been unfortunately sour since independence of Pakistan. Afghanistan refused to accept the independence of Pakistan and the recognition of Durand Line. The only Afghan leader who demonstrated willingness to recognize the Durand Line was Sardar Daud, who was killed on the eve of his visit to Pakistan in 1978, lest he ‘sell out’ to Pakistan.
AFGHANISTAN – MILITARY OPERATION
Operation Moshtarak: Launching on Feb 13, 2010 and is a joint operation by ISAF comprising military personnel drawn from the US, the UK, Denmark, Estonia, Canada, and The Afghan forces.
“Poppy Grooving belt”: of Helmend province in Southern Afghanistan.
USA’s “exist plan” to commence in 2011.
Gen. Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani briefed a group of defense analysts and shared the presentation he had made to the heads of 45 armed forces at the NATO Commanders Conference in Brussels.
1- Pakistan’s unaided and single-handed silent troop surge of the deployment of up to 147,000 soldiers, the sacrifices of 8,785 casualties suffered vis-à-vis 1639 of the US / NATO forces comprising 43 nations must have driven home the aspects of Pakistan’s contribution to the Brussels addresses.
2- The comprehensive strategy must be aimed at clearing the area of the miscreants, holding it until such time the building of local forces and infrastructure takes place and then transfer control to the resident security forces.
Afghan National Army (ANA-240,000 by 2014) and Police Force (160,000): The concerns expressed by Ambassador Karl Ekinberry’s recently leaked report, regarding the capacity and capability of the Afghan national army and police force are quite genuine and need to be factored into any transition plan. The afghan security forces also lack national composure due to lopsided over- representation of ethnic minorities.
Pakistan’s Strategic Constraints: Non-state actors; Pashtun factor- the advent of Afghan refugees; national & military capacity to absorb and operate the limited cutting edge military capacity & budgetary space.
INDIA IN AFGHANISTAN
Under the pretext of Talibanization of Afghanistan and Pakistan, India has been running a secret operation against Pakistan for its Consulates in Mazar-i-Sharif, Jalalabad, Kandhar, and other sensitive parts of the Pak-Afghan border. It has spent millions of dollars in Afghanistan to strengthen its hold on the country. New Delhi has not only increased its military troops in Afghanistan, but has also decided to setup cantonments. In this respect, puppet regime of Hamid Karzai encouraged India in using the Border Roads Organization in constructing the ring roads by employing Indo-Tibetan police force for security.
Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani assertively said in the NATO meeting at Brussels that NATO courtiers, which have greater stakes in Afghanistan, should pay heed to the concerns raised by Islamabad,
Kayani denied that Pakistan wanted a “Talibanized” Afghanistan, and said his country has no interest in controlling Afghanistan .
Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani described the Indian role in Afghanistan as “unhelpful”.
During the month of Jan 2010, Pakistani intelligence arrested a RAW hatched conspiracy to hijack a Pakistani civilian aircraft to internationalize the Baluchistan issue.
Indians have ringed the Af-Pak border with strategically placed Consulates to support terrorism in Pakistan under the garb of diplomatic legitimacy.
Pakistani forces have recently hauled a truck full of Indian weapons, ammunition and communication equipment from the Taliban.
In settling scores with Pakistan by helping Taliban, the Indians are actually undermining the US and NATO operations in Afghanistan.
Late last year (2009), the US Forces Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. McChrystal said that peace in Afghanistan couldn’t prevail unless Pakistani state interests are taken into account and that, increased Indian Influence and its growing role in the Afghan affair is counterproductive in view of its being unacceptable to Pakistan.
Unstable Afghanistan provides the space to anti-Pakistan elements to spread chaos in our country.
Indian Army Chief, Gen Kapoor’s brag of fighting a two front war with China and Pakistan.
Gen. McChrystal (NATO Commander), on Sept 20, 2009 revealed that, “Indian political & economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant development efforts – is likely to exacerbate regional tension”.
BRITISH SPONSORED CONFERENCE ON AFGHANISTAN IN LONDON
With a view to evolving an international architecture for coordinating global efforts for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan.
Karzai wanted the international forces to stay in Afghanistan for 5-10 years time required to develop the Afghan army as a workable security force.
The EU and the Americans want troop’s withdrawal to start by the middle of next years.
The current internal aid to Afghanistan is $6.2 billion dollars, which is 45% of the Afghanistan GDP.
The drug business in Afghanistan is flourishing at $ 3.6-4.2 billion and corruption is rampant while no development has taken place. According to an estimate, world’s 90 % heroin is cultivated in Afghanistan.
American Admiral Mike Mullen: the US cannot afford to lose the war in Afghanistan since the “Stakes are too high”.
It was a vague attempt and not up to the international expectations.
During a trilateral Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan Foreign Minister’s Meeting in Islamabad on 16th Jan, the three sides in their joint declaration clearly opposed the idea of including any country other than Afghanistan’s geographically contagious neighbours China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to join the regional arrangements.
INDIA ROLL IN AFGHANISTAN IS LIKELY TO LESSEN
On 16th of Jan- three foreign ministers of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan committed to non-interference in the internal affairs of each country, ensuring that their territories were not used for activities detrimental to each other’s interests.
On Jan 29, in their final communiqué, world leaders of London Conferences agreed on a timetable for the hand over of security duties to the Afghan forces in late 2010, while backing Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s plan to reintegrate the willing Taliban to pursue political goals peacefully.
While India was interested in the training of Afghan security forces, and was covertly making strenuous efforts in that respect, but no country in the London Conference considered New Delhi ’s case.
while praising Pakistan’s security forces, Western high officials insisted upon New Delhi to observe restraint in connection with its war-mongering style.
In his state of the Union address, President Obama has repeatedly said that American combat troops will begin a phased withdrawal from Afghanistan from July 2011.
American Stakes & Loses in War More than 6 trillion dollars, financial crises & domestic pressure – Now US strongly supports process of reintegration, peace and reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban with the sole aim of leaving that country.
Way forward regarding Afghanistan:
Pakistan wants strategic partnership among Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Although no easy solutions are available to the Pak-Afghan, problem and it will certainly be a long way for a durable mutual trust to build. However, some immediate measures like preserving Afghanistan’s integrity, balancing the structure of central government and denying the regional and extra regional states to meddle with Afghan domestic affairs, can come handy to boost the bilateral relations.
The US should not dictate terms nor should Pakistan and Iran try to impose their will on Kabul. Otherwise, the problems will linger on and the war will continue in one form or the other.
It would be appropriate to remandate and recompose ISAF as US peacekeepers and force trainers
The US has an obligation to leave behind a viable and stable Afghanistan.
Conspiracy theories aside, if the US and its allies are serious about stabilizing Afghanistan, India must be marginalized in the Afghan context.
Russia and China should be taken on board for reaching to any viable and long-lasting solution of the Afghan issue.