The Forgotten Lads Have Just Become Interesting - Earn 1 BCH for 6 Lads With 8 Traits

I admit it.

When I first saw the new "Forgotten Lads" NFT series, I didn't get the appeal. At all.

However, having looked at the artwork for some time now, I not only got used to their looks, but - to my own surprise - I started to like them.

The last time I had this reaction was when I first saw the Tesla Cybertruck and I thought that Elon Musk lost his mind and would bankrupt the company. The opposite was the case and the Tesla stock price 10x-ed in the months after the reveal- meaning the stock price increased tenfold.

Will something similar happen to the Forgotten Lads?

After "getting used to the artwork" I suddenly got very interested in the "Forgotten Lads" after a contest was announced that gives me the opportunity to earn a 1 BCH bonus by minting some Forgotten Lads. The NFT creator announced in the official Forgotten Lads Telegram group that anyone who ends up holding 6 forgotten lads with the maximum amount of traits (8 traits), would receive a 1 BCH reward. 🤯

That announcement blew my mind. The minting price of 1 Forgotten Lad is just 0.026 BCH and you can mint them on their website. Including gas fees it costs just 0.1578 BCH to mint 6 Forgotten Lads - which may end up giving me a 1 BCH reward. That's a great deal!

And you can buy Lads with 8 traits from oasis.cash, too!

Yes, you can buy qualifying Lads from oasis.cash, too. I did exactly that - and I paid less for my lad than it gives me as a reward. 😁 Someone definitely sold it too cheap as each lad with 8 traits is worth 1/6 BCH = 0.1666... BCH in rewards alone - and I paid only 0.127 BCH for it.

There is one caveat when you're buying from Oasis, though!

Check if the reward for the lad has already been claimed here.

But how many Forgotten Lads are there with 8 traits?

That number is not known, but with some Math we can estimate it based on the trait list which has been published by the creator.

Every lad has at least 4 features: A background, a body, a top and some eyes.

The optional traits are eyewear (none for 4183 Lads), mouthwear (none for 5097 Lads), headwear (none for 2199 Lads) and extras (none for 4961 Lads).

We can now estimate the probability of a Lad having all 8 features if we use the above information and multiply the probabilities for having a trait in each category in the following equation.

p = (7500-4183)*(7500-5097)*(7500-2199)*(7500-4961)/7500^4 = 3317 * 2403 * 5301 * 2539 / 7500^4 = 3.39%

We used the information that there are a total of 7500 Lads minted and the result is that the probability for a lad having all 8 traits is 3.39%. We get an estimate for how many Lads have all 8 traits by multiplying this number with the total number of Lads (7500):

n*p = 7500 * 3.39% = 254.3

We expect that around 254 Lads exist with all 8 traits. As we can claim 1 BCH for every 6 Lads with 8 traits, we expect that about 42 BCH will be distributed to the community!

Has all this Math made you want to mint some Lads?

If not: What is wrong with you?! Why don't you love my sexy Math skills?!

Just kidding!

But this reward is truly great! And the roadmap was updated, too. And now it does look great, because for every forgotten lad that you mint or purchase, you will get an additional NFT of a present lad for free and you will be able to stake both the Forgotten lad and the present lad for passive income. Sounds great, right?

Here is the full roadmap

By the way, the more artsy-inclined people may also get excited about the philosophical side of the project - which gives it a nice touch. 😊

However, let's get back to numbers. 😅

The Rarity List

This list uses the official published numbers. I only polished it a bit and included the "none" category.

background

Name Count Percent # of traits 13

80's Purple 223 2,97 %

Brady Fun 228 3,04 %

rainbow 232 3,09 %

aqua 237 3,16 %

Disco 453 6,04 %

purple 626 8,35 %

red 635 8,47 %

50 Shades of Grey 679 9,05 %

Vice City 685 9,13 %

yellow 693 9,24 %

blue 695 9,27 %

pink 929 12,39 %

green 1185 15,80 %

body

Name Count Percent # of traits 8

black body 370 4,93 %

orange body 395 5,27 %

avatar body 416 5,55 %

asian body 774 10,32 %

purple body 1169 15,59 %

red body 1226 16,35 %

white body 1556 20,75 %

green body 1594 21,25 %

top

Name Count Percent # of traits 10

2pac sweat 153 2,04 %

yellow tshirt 158 2,11 %

gold armor 162 2,16 %

white shirt 165 2,20 %

rogerVer sweat 308 4,11 %

purple tshirt 844 11,25 %

pink tshirt 853 11,37 %

green sweat 1587 21,16 %

blue sweat 1621 21,61 %

red sweat 1649 21,99 %

extra

Name Count Percent # of traits 4

bitcoin chain 530 7,07 %

tear 536 7,15 %

beard 1473 19,64 %

none 4961 66,15 %

eyes

Name Count Percent # of traits 9

vairons eyes 241 3,21 %

gold eyes 289 3,85 %

blind 303 4,04 %

drugged eyes 597 7,96 %

blue eyes 832 11,09 %

brown eyes 1147 15,29 %

green eyes 1205 16,07 %

black eyes 1427 19,03 %

white eyes 1459 19,45 %

eyewear

Name Count Percent # of traits 5

sunglasses 367 4,89 %

3dglasses 410 5,47 %

glasses 1269 16,92 %

lunettes 1271 16,95 %

none 4183 55,77 %

mouthwear

Name Count Percent # of traits 6

yellow mask 261 3,48 %

purple mask 500 6,67 %

blue mask 525 7,00 %

red mask 548 7,31 %

gray mask 569 7,59 %

none 5097 67,96 %

headwear

Name Count Percent # of traits 10

whiteHat 213 2,84 %

headphones 220 2,93 %

bandana 248 3,31 %

birthday hat 421 5,61 %

brownhat 656 8,75 %

coloredcap 715 9,53 %

cap 866 11,55 %

backwardsCap 875 11,67 %

red hat 1087 14,49 %

none 2199 29,32 %