The economy likely remained under marked stress in Q3, following the steep GDP contraction in Q2 due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns and collapse in oil prices. According to secondary sources, crude oil output was down by over a fifth in Q3 from last year as the country increasingly stuck to OPEC+ cut commitments. Together with oil prices stagnating at weak levels in the quarter, the all-important energy sector likely continued to reel. Moreover, accelerating double-digit inflation and tight FX liquidity should have weighed on household purchasing power and general business operations. Meanwhile, leading data points to some improvement in conditions at the outset of Q4: The private sector PMI edged up on robust output and new orders growth, while firms turned markedly less pessimistic in October. That said, the outbreak of widespread violent protests that same month could have weighed on activity to some extent.
Nigeria Economic Growth
On the heels of the worst downturn in recent history this year owing to the pandemic and oil price shock, the economy is seen emerging back to growth in 2021 as demand at home and abroad recover. However, the outlook remains fragile, clouded by uncertainty regarding the oil price trajectory, rising inflation, elevated unemployment, security challenges and social tensions. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth at 1.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before picking up to 2.9% in 2022.
Nigeria Economy Data
20152016201720182019Population (million)181186191196201GDP per capita (USD)2,7442,2141,9572,1832,363GDP (USD bn)497412374428475Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-1.60.81.92.3Consumption (annual variation in %)- - - - - Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-3.09.78.3Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.87.5Unemployment Rate4.37.18.48.28.1Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-4.0-5.4-4.3- Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.2- Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.16.3Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6Current Account (% of GDP)-3.10.72.80.9-3.6Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.43.9-17.0Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.120.52.9Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.861.265.0Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.862.1Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.033.66.1Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.752.4International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6Extern