Large catastrophes – earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes and tsunamis, as well as war - all have some things in common: the most important is that they are dangerous, and that to the point of putting lives in danger, or destroying whole cities.
Many of these things are possible to at least suspect in advance. A war is not starting overnight. Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, and hurricanes turn up in specific areas. One cannot always know when they approach, but they occur repeatedly in the same places, although sometimes it can pass a century or more between the big ones. But one thing is almost for sure: where there has been a big one, there will come another big one, sooner or later. People know that, still they choose to live in the danger zone. Not because they love the danger, but because in their minds they deny it. The brain doesn't want to see reality; instead it repeats a false message: “Why would that happen to me? It won't happen to me.” In that way, human nature is self-destructively over-optimistic. This is an interesting psychological phenomenon. Without it, people would not choose to live in Tokyo, large parts of California, Sumatra or Java, or in houses clinging to the world's mightiest volcano, Krakatau. And many more Jews would have left Nazi Germany while they were still allowed, even encouraged to leave.
Wars offer the same observation, a never ending refusal to see reality. The preludes to a war take at least months, and the signs are there for all to see. Still many people in the future war zone refuse to leave while they can. Their brain denies the danger. Even when the war starts, they think it will soon be over and all will be well – and that however unfounded their optimism is!
One can also see this denial of danger when it comes to health and diseases. A lot of people have unprotected casual sex despite the risk of catching HIV. This is a deadly virus, although it kills slowly. There is no cure and in spite of all attempts to limit it, it is spreading. Yet the danger is denied. “It won't happen to me.”
We find this in almost all health matters. Why don't people take measures to prevent cancer and cardiovascular disease to the best of their knowledge? Why are they smoking, etc.? Why are almost all human beings committing a slow suicide?
Bad self-discipline, yes, but it is also because their brain denies the danger. It doesn't want to see it, so it applies the ostrich method; “put your head in the sand so you won't see what's happening, then it won't happen.” There is just one problem with that method: it will happen anyway!
Let me take one more example of this mentality: all sorts of environmental pollution. The world is rapidly heading towards a catastrophe, yet most people refuse to take it seriously enough. Quite frankly, what is done about all the environmental problems is just a play for the galleries. It is to earn political points and votes. But despite what is done, the world is still heading towards the same catastrophe, just infinitesimally slower.
Why has this attitude developed? Does it give any evolutionary advantage?
I have no real answer to that, but we can always speculate.
Optimism might give some advantage, because it makes people try, it makes them make an effort even when the outcome looks bad. That effort might be what makes them change the outcome to something better.
The pessimist would see the futility of even trying, so the most logical action would be just to sit down and die.
Primitive man was living in an environment surrounded by dangers and he had no possibility to see the patterns in natural catastrophes either. Such things were his least problem anyway. To get food, to avoid being killed by predators or human enemies, or to avoid dying by infections or consequences of injuries were probably his major concerns. His life was so full of dangers and death came so early and often, that he hardly thought of earthquakes or hurricanes – except when they really stroke – and he rarely lived long enough to discover degenerative disease. But he lived in a world where death was never far away. This, however, in opposition to natural catastrophes, were things whose outcome he could learn to influence. That's why we got agriculture and the medical science. They were created by optimists, who thought the problems of starvation and illness could be overcome. So optimism increased survival, at that stage in development it became an evolutionary advantage, and it still is, in its right place and in right proportions.
Yet the optimism went too far; it became stupidity. But that is not uncommon with human properties. What evolves as advantageous in a limited sense, evolves to a general property, and then it becomes a weakness. It is applied to the wrong things or in the wrong way. The “put-the-head-in-the-sand” mentality is no advantage; it is optimism going astray completely. It is no longer the belief that with effort seemingly impossible problems can be solved, it is the belief that they will disappear if you deny them, and that is pure stupidity. Fact is that it is not even a belief, most people intellectually know that problems will not disappear by being denied, but emotionally they still act as if they would. Perhaps we have reached the core of the problem there, a much bigger problem of which “denial of real danger” is just one manifestation; human imbalance between intellect and emotion.
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It is really nice to know that you are changing tha thoughts.i loved your articles