Bleeding bitcoin’s holding out for a hero

Who can save bitcoin?

The world’s biggest cryptocurrency can’t seem to catch a break. It finally looked to be regaining strength this month, breaching $25,000 for the first time since its June collapse, only to relapse towards $20,000.

A deflating end to August has forced the market to confront the Big Bitcoin Question: where will a real rally come from?

Right now, doughty retail investors are looking like the most likely source of relief, as institutional players get cold feet in the midst of a macro maelstrom.

The amount of “illiquid bitcoin” across the market – held by wallets that rarely spend or sell – has risen by 73,840 bitcoin over the past week, the largest weekly increase for more than two months, according to Chainalysis data. That equates to roughly $1.7 billion at recent prices.

Furthermore, the amount of bitcoin held for over a year has increased by 54,300 on average in the last four weeks, the largest rise in about four months, Chainalysis said. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchanges have seen net outflows for three straight months as investors pulled their tokens into “cold storage” rather than selling, according to Arcane Research.

“It’s clear that longer-term holders at the retail level are also accumulating, the number of wallets holding relatively small amounts of bitcoin is indeed growing,” said Jay Fraser, head of strategy at BSTX securities exchange.

“Don’t underestimate the impact of the retail HODLers,” Fraser added, referring to a cohort whose name emerged years ago from a trader misspelling “hold” on an online forum. “Their lack of selling helps to create more scarcity so that, eventually, a supply shock for bitcoin will again play out.”