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Disclaimer: This article is a Google Translated version on Jiang Zhuoer's price prediction post. I didn't correct the grammar as I didn't want to misquote him and if I took the time to get this translated properly, too much time would pass.
In the last article "About the question of whether the halving bull market will come and how it will come", I took the LTC halving bull market in the past as an example to illustrate the amazing similarity of the halving bull market, and the bull Resonance formed by bear cycle + halving cycle.
So, if you use BTC to halve the bull market and do a similar calculation, what is the result?
The following figure is the relationship between BTC historical currency price and halving, in which:
1. The price is a logarithmic coordinate, and the price of a coin increases by 10 times (10 yuan, 100 yuan, 1000 yuan ...)
2. Today is 197 days away from the expected halving time (May 5, 2020). The blue arrow is the position where the distance has been halved 197 days twice in history. It can be seen that the halving point continues to rise.
3. The bull market (halving point to the highest point) after the halving is significantly higher and faster than the bull market before the halving (the lowest point to the halving point), which is often said: the big bull market is opened after the halving.
In addition, the lowest point → halving point → the highest point forms an obvious periodic law, which can be used to predict the peak of this halving bull market. But before making predictions, everyone must be aware that predicting the top is a very difficult thing, far more difficult than predicting the bottom.
Second, it is difficult to escape the bottom Taking me as an example, in the last round of BTC and BCH, I successfully hit the bottom:
BTC: "I think the wave last night should be emotionally low"
BCH: "I'm here to play a post-mortem"
But for the top, friends who have heard my lecture know that I actually escaped the top twice:
The first time to escape from the top was when the currency price was 30,000 before 2017.9.4. The reason is that "Before the bull market," I also talk about 4000 yuan is the beginning of the Bitcoin bull market ", I predicted that the top is 30,000, and there have been obvious Bubble and market overheating sentiment.
As everyone knows about the following trend, after the 9.4 currency price briefly fell from 30,000 to 18,000, it has soared to 130,000 all the way -_- b
Fortunately, I sold all the money that escaped the top to sell coins, and all of the S9 mining machines sold in the market panic. When the bull market soared in the last 4 months, the price of the mining machine was too fast and the output of the mining machine was insufficient. The increase is far more than the increase in computing power. The S9 from the bottom of the bargain not only paid back once in terms of currency, but also rose from 8000 to 9000 to 28,000, and the income was higher than the fixed currency.
The second escape is the correct escape position
1. A story from the last bull market With so many examples, I hope everyone knows that it is extremely difficult to predict the escape. There was a pantheon in the last round of the bull market, and its main string theory predicted that the bull market in the bear market would rise to eight hundred and eight.
And led the followers to escape from the summit in 1800.
After helping the believer earn ten times, some people still blame him
Fourth, see the top coin price prediction So, for the prediction, I hope everyone will take their own responsibility. This ultra-long-term forecast is mainly used for long-term planning of company development or personal assets. If a long-term forecast must be made, then the forecast is as follows:
1. The highest point time: time symmetry has appeared in the last two rounds ("minimum price distance minus half days" is slightly more than "highest price distance minus half days"), according to the same proportion as this round of "minimum price distance minus half days" 507 days, the highest point available is 491 days, the specific time is September 8, 2021.
2. The highest price: the greater the investment volume, the lower the volatility. The descending line should be a curve. For simplicity, it can be replaced by linear, so we can get: Assuming that the "increasing multiple" decreases linearly, the current multiplier is 29 times, which corresponds to a currency price of 89133 US dollars. Assuming that the "total market value increase multiple" decreases linearly, the current total market value * 7 times, corresponding to the currency price of 120,876 US dollars.
1. In general, the time is on the side of the bull market. The longer the time, the stronger the defense of 7000 ~ 8000.
2. To be honest, don't play with leveraged futures and do not rule out the possibility of falling to 6000 in the short term. Exploding positions before the big bull market is the worst thing. (Added on April 22: I did not expect that it fell to 6000 in the short term, but fell to 3800 -_- b)
Marcel's Comments: Wow, Jiang Zhuoer is a pretty good trader, lol