It's that time of year again when everyone debates where Bitcoin's price will be by year-end. $100,000? $40,000? Honestly, I'm tired of tracking the endless articles and videos predicting crypto futures.
Tech, rich, Lambo, rekt, SEC, decentralized—you get the idea.
I'd say, let the future unfold. Predictions will be right eventually; it's just a matter of time. But does it really matter?
For most people, it does. It can mean breaking the bank or buying a new Lamborghini.
Crypto is all about speculation. We've thrived on price predictions, right? Maybe for some. But "some" isn't "most," and certainly not "all."
99% of investors might disagree that crypto can make you rich but won't say so openly. Let's exclude those who got rich by scamming, hacking, promoting scams, and manipulation. Losing trades are a stigma. Admitting failure means losing credibility and the right to brag. Hence, failures are often hidden.
I've convinced myself that if I predict the last trade correctly, I'll be fine. But I've played the same game over and over. I appreciate crypto for one thing: it offers multiple ways to "do things."
Some enjoy predicting. If that makes you happy, go ahead. I'm not good at it and not brave enough to risk my money, so...
I'm here to raise awareness and offer a different perspective.
I might be someone who tries different approaches to achieve the same result. Does that make me a contrarian? Maybe. I do it because that's who I am.
I know that to create income, I need to do what the masses are doing, or at least what's acceptable to them. Being different provides a unique perspective, but no rewards.
I chose this topic to tap into the critical thinking aspect of our market. This is primarily for myself, to control my own FOMO, FUD, and the biased voices that could affect my investment and well-being.
I'm not fond of being asked about specific cryptos or their future prices. If you've read my writings, you'd know that prices could go up, down, or stay the same, depending on the period.
Nothing is justified, especially in crypto. There are many reasons for crypto price behaviors.
Predictions are based on multiple reasons, often inaccurate. The reason? Black Swan events.
Speculation is a mix of gambling and educated research, relying heavily on past results. But Black Swan events, which are nearly impossible to predict, render scholarly advice and research useless, especially in finance.
A Black Swan event affects the entire market and is 99.9% unpredictable. Examples include the 9/11 attacks, Covid-19 lockdowns, and the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
These events are unpredictable and affect the market significantly. Market influencers can blame their failures on Black Swan events, but it highlights the risk of following their predictions.
To learn more about Black Swan events, I recommend this free audiobook. Listen to it before it's taken down for copyright reasons. I enjoy audiobooks while driving or doing chores.
The best investment advice might be following Nancy Pelosi's portfolio. She’s an insider and knows when something is going to happen. Check out her portfolio performance.
Before the lockdown, government conglomerates sold off their stocks. However, insider info can also be wrong, so it's the "closest" to the best advice we have.
Why do people insist on playing catch-up with the market? It's driven by ego and the need to show off. "I'm a self-made millionaire" is a powerful feeling.
But predicting the market is like a coin toss. It's a gamble. No one knows for sure what will happen to Bitcoin by year-end. Even a correct prediction might be a lucky guess, which is 50% accurate—like the odds of a coin toss.
Who knew Bitcoin would drop from $74K to $54K? I had a gut feeling, but I didn't know when. Guessing the timing takes effort.
Sometimes the market aligns with predictions.
Let me illustrate with a story.
Remember the original Star Wars movies? They were a huge success. Anakin Skywalker was predicted by the Jedi Council to become a dark force. Treated as a villain before becoming one, he ultimately became Darth Vader. The council’s fear guided him to the dark side.
Similarly, in real life, treating someone as a criminal before they are one can lead them to act that way. Thoughts can manifest into reality. If you expect failure, you're halfway there.
The saying "Be careful what you wish for" holds true. Wishing Bitcoin to be $100,000 or $40,000 can cause liquidation of shorts or longs, respectively. It’s a vice versa game.
Someone will always get hurt. There’s no WAGMI (We’re All Gonna Make It). My previous article "WAGMI anyone?" explains this.
The market is influenced by mass sentiment. More Bull sentiment means market growth, and vice versa. Media plays a crucial role in investment world manipulation.
FUD can destroy lives and price speculations. Always verify facts to avoid spreading FUD.
Charts are another tool for predictions. I don't understand them and find them futile. Success rates are manipulated to trick you.
Being a contrarian might not be bad. I learn what NOT to do instead of blindly following advice.
Whatever model you use to gauge market trends will likely be wrong. Some succeed by doing the wrong things because it’s random.
One correct prediction doesn’t mean the model is accurate. People often overlook the many failed attempts before one success.
Predicting the BTC halving chart is interesting but uncertain. Will it continue to follow the chart?
What if governments intervene in BTC mining or dump confiscated BTC? What if economic pressure forces people to sell crypto for survival? These events are unpredictable.
Nassim Taleb, author of "Antifragile," suggests staying safe by understanding what could go wrong, not what could go right.
You just need to win once, right? But losing all 10 attempts means 100% loss. It’s gambling. What if you try 100 times to win once? Breaking the bank and taking loans is risky.
As a crypto investor, I avoid predictions. I follow these mindsets:
- I get involved with crypto projects that reward effort, like writing for Bulb. Projects like Do to Earn and Play to Earn are great.
- I keep my crypto in the market as long as possible. Compounding is a true friend in investment. I invest in cryptos that reward stakers with airdrops. Market fluctuations don’t matter; staying longer does.
- I don’t predict.
- I diversify into multiple assets, including skills and improvement.
- I invest in Bitcoin for its potential, not price action. Lower entry points are preferred. More BTC is better.
- I never invest more than I can afford to lose, even if it means missing out on overnight riches.
- I follow market narratives and trends but don’t trade often.
The best investment advice: never lose your money. I avoid speculation games in NFTs or crypto. Success in wealth involves taking chances, but I take calculated risks.
Remember, the market will flow as it always has, with occasional Black Swans. Follow your principles to ،
shape a future you’re satisfied with, without regrets. Believe in yourself but proceed cautiously.