Russia, Is it worth it to invade?
The Embassy evacuation has begun. The intelligence community has made it clear that military war is a possibility. But I don't expect a significant fight.
This is what I mean because most power forecasts are domestic. The Falkland Islands conflict is a good example. Leaders frequently distract attention from local catastrophes. Las Malvinas!
The epidemic has devastated Russia. Putin's image is in jeopardy. As a result, I believe the current NATO and Western military exercises are a "Stare-Down."
It works. Europe and the US are shocked and react haphazardly. Russia has already shown its terrible potential.
Putin will now play the "bigger man" card to appear to his people as a mediator and leader who can look down on the West's fearmongering. The Russians want to be able to say, "See?!" We were honest. You liars.
I could be mistaken. No way. These are tested and true approaches.
Vladimir Putin's worldview must be grasped, whether you agree or disagree with his demands. Aside from the Baltic states, he has publicly stated that former Soviet republics will not join NATO. That year's Russia-Georgia conflict proved it. He believes the 2014 Maidan revolution was an illegitimate takeover of a democratically elected government, invalidating the agreements Russia made guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity. That's his position. Even if you disagree, it is his position. In other words, he has staked a claim. The US, some European countries, and NATO have disputed Ukraine's "right" to join NATO. The only way out of this impasse is for one side to concede or for war to break out. Conflict is imminent because Russia has decided that it will not be the one to back down. In my opinion, Russia may adopt a salami-slicing strategy to attain its geopolitical goals without risking an invasion. As a result of his stand, Russia has recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsky and Luhansky People's Republic.
The Russian economy is strong enough to withstand any economic sanctions that are imposed or threatened. I agree with him that now is the moment for military action. Any confrontation in Ukraine will primarily affect Russian and Ukrainian citizens. The illusion of Western invincibility will be tested if he can maintain his military advantages. A new financial system might be built on gold, cryptocurrency, the yuan or the ruble, and its own payment processing infrastructure. Vladimir Putin wants to make Russia a country that cannot be ignored. If this is Putin's goal, he can only achieve it through his current actions.
