How far will the price of bitcoin go?

There is little historical evidence that economists have made big bucks.

It is said that, with the exception of Keynes's value investment aid, most economists have suffered huge investment losses.

New York University professor Roubini, best known for "Doctor Doom", who refers to people who are pessimistic about the economy, predicted a major Bitcoin crash around January 15th.

Prof. Roubini was a man who denied the existence of bitcoin from the very beginning, so from his point of view, the collapse of bitcoin, which recently surged by more than $ 40,000 apiece, would seem natural.

But I think this prophecy will not come true.

Of course, there will be temporary adjustments. However, a fall in prices of more than 50% is not expected to correspond to the term "bust".

Rather, I think it's not much more than $ 50,000.

In 2018, I predicted the price of 1 bit at $ 50,000.

The basis for the estimate was that global gold assets at the time were around $ 8 trillion (now over $ 10 trillion), but gold is a safe asset used as a representative asset preservation tool.

Therefore, when there is an economic crisis or an emergency in a country, gold prices often jump.

At the time, I expected bitcoin to replace safe assets and $ 50,000 per bit, assuming that 10% of the $ 8 trillion global gold market would be replaced by bitcoins.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency limited to 21 million in total.

However, the calculation is based on the assumption that the total amount available for circulation at the time of completion of mining, due to the loss of the key value at a time when the initial value of bitcoin was not recognized at all, will be 18 million units. ...

Bitcoin's current market capitalization of over $ 40,000 apiece is around 800 trillion won, a significant figure of 8% of the gold market. At the time of 2018, the price of 1 bit dropped to 3-4 million won, and now it is almost 10 times higher than then.

So how far will the price of bitcoin go?

As a rule, the price of a product is influenced by the relationship between supply and demand. No matter how good a product is, when the supply overflows, the price falls, and even the smallest product rises when demand is high.

Bitcoin supply is limited. After all, demand has no choice but to have a big impact on pricing, but demand is overflowing around the world.

In particular, as financial institutions accept Bitcoin as one of their financial products, excess liquidity in the currency will drive the price of Bitcoin even higher.

Bitcoin went through a long upheaval after Satoshi's white paper was published on October 30, 2008, and the Genesis Block was created on January 3, 2009. Now it has become one of the most suitable financial products and is almost fully recognized as a safe asset.

Bitcoin is in the spotlight as a typical asset hiding method because it is more convenient to store and move than gold. In particular, the emergence of CBDCs in countries around the world has diminished due to the release of China's CBDC (digital currency issued by the Central Bank) and the completion of tests in the open market. The emergence of these digital currencies will further strengthen Bitcoin's status.

In addition, excess foreign exchange liquidity is likely to fuel inflation, as reported by Bloomberg News that liquidity poured out from the world, including the United States, Japan and China, surpassed $ 14 trillion due to Corona 19 last year.

Even if it is unaffected by inflation, the monetary authorities are ultimately expected to make efforts to reduce liquidity in some way, and an attempt to control liquidity through monetary reform to digital currency is expected, rather than a method of restoring liquidity by increasing interest rates. rates as in the past.

On the other hand, in August last year, a number of global central banks sold significant amounts of gold as a result of the rise in gold prices, which is believed to have limited the size of the gold market to about $ 10 trillion a year. world economy as estimated by central banks.

Ultimately, central banks are also expected to buy bitcoin as an alternative safe asset, so demand for bitcoin is expected to continue to grow.

In the Star Wars movie, the currency used in space is called Credit.

Even in an imaginary movie, real money, which is difficult to store and move, has no value, and this is a world in which even minerals like gold are simply synthesized and used with advances in technology. The artist's idea is named as fresh.

It is now believed that the digital currency Bitcoin, which can be traded anywhere in the universe, has won the trust of many people and is expected to increase its value more and more.

There are many safe assets besides gold, but Bitcoin is expected to gradually become the best safe asset given the convenience of storage, concealment and transaction.

, replacing about half of the existing global gold market. Based on the preconditions, it is estimated that the price per bit could exceed $ 300,000.

But predicting stock or commodity prices is God's domain.

People were only given the ability to react, not predict. Therefore, we need to be humble.

Professor Roubini, who predicted the recent Bitcoin crash, is still the prediction of a global scientist, so let's look at it with interest.