Bangladesh has lost to India several times in cricket. Football has also won occasionally. There is success beyond the game. Bangladesh lost to India in several social indicators. The last victory is in the real economy. If all goes well, Bangladesh will lose to India in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2020.

The gap is very small though. But after falling behind, the field of economy and politics is heating up in India. Bangladesh is surpassing India in per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report last week that Bangladesh's per capita GDP would be 1,006 in 2020, while India's per capita GDP would be 1,006.

 India is now one of the largest economies in the world. India is one of the top 5 countries in the world in terms of total GDP. In terms of total GDP, India's share in the world economy is 3.27 percent, and Bangladesh's share is 34 percent. So there is no comparison from this point of view. India's economy is 10 times bigger than Bangladesh's. So the news of a country with such a large economy being left behind in terms of per capita income may have given rise to much discussion. The anti-Modi camp has got a weapon to defeat its opponents. As a result, the Indian government now has to explain in various ways.

Here is the tweet of Kaushik Basu, the former chief economist of the World Bank. "The IMF estimates that in 2021, Bangladesh will surpass India in per capita GDP," he wrote. The good news is that any emerging economy will do well. Surprisingly, five years ago, India was 25 per cent ahead, but now it is falling behind. India now needs a bold fiscal and monetary policy. " 

Why India is lagging behind?

Discussions are going on about the way Bangladesh is advancing and why India is lagging behind. Various explanations are being given. The Indian media The India Express cites three reasons for India's backwardness.

1. Since 2004, Bangladesh's economy has grown at a much faster rate. However, at this time India has advanced at a faster pace. And this trend was maintained till 2016. As a result, the gap between Bangladesh and India has not narrowed. But the situation started to change from 2016. Since then, India's economy has slowed down. On the other hand, Bangladesh has advanced faster than before. With the impact of GDP per capita.

2. In the last 15 years, the population growth rate in Bangladesh was low, while in India it has increased at a much higher rate. For example, in 15 years, India's population has grown by 21 percent, and at the same time, Bangladesh's population has grown by 18 percent. We know that GDP per capita is calculated by dividing GDP by population. The gap between the two countries was narrowing due to differences in population growth. Even in 2008, Bangladesh's per capita GDP was half that of India. And if 2004 is taken into account, India's per capita GDP was 70 percent higher than Bangladesh's. Bangladesh has been able to reduce this gap rapidly in the last few years. And due to the prevalence of Kovid-19, Bangladesh went ahead.

3. The impact of Covid-19 has not been the same for both countries. India is one of the most economically disadvantaged countries in the world at the time of the epidemic. On the other hand, Bangladesh is doing relatively well. According to the IMF, in 2020, Bangladesh's growth will be 3.7 percent, and India's growth will be 10.3 percent. In other words, India's economy will shrink excessively, which is having an impact on per capita GDP.

The way Bangladesh is moving forward

After gaining independence by fighting with Pakistan, Bangladesh had to fight a long battle for rapid development. Bangladesh had the opportunity to start all over again. But the fight was not easy. The first report of the World Bank on the economy of Bangladesh was on 25 September 1972. It said, ‘Even in the best of circumstances, the development problem of Bangladesh is very complex. The people here are very poor, with a per capita income of ৫০ 50 to ৭ 60, which has not increased in the last 20 years. The overpopulation here, with 1,400 people living per square kilometer, has a much shorter life expectancy, still below 50, with an unemployment rate of 25 to 30. Percentage and a large part of the population is illiterate.

Researchers were not very kind to Bangladesh. For example, Norwegian economist Just Faland and US economist JR Parkinson published a book called Bangladesh The Test Case for Development from London in 1986. In that book, they said, ‘Bangladesh is a testing ground for development. If Bangladesh can solve its development problems, then it must be understood that any country can improve. '

India is one of the most economically disadvantaged countries in the world at the time of the epidemic. Photo: Reuters

An analysis published in The India Express on October 16 further said that Bangladesh's economic structure is taking the country forward. For example, in terms of GDP, Bangladesh is now much more dependent on industries and services. This sector is now creating employment, which the agricultural sector is not able to do. On the other hand, India is struggling to revive the industrial sector and people are still much more dependent on agriculture.

That Bangladesh has already surpassed Pakistan. And now it has challenged India as well. Analysts in India say the higher participation of women in the labor force is playing a big role in Bangladesh's progress. And this is where India lags far behind. And the main driving force for women's participation in the labor force is the ready-made garment sector. Bangladesh has taken a good place in the world market with this garment sector. According to estimates, the participation rate of women in the labor force in Bangladesh is 32 percent, while in India it is only 20.3 percent.

An analysis published in The India Express on October 16 further said that Bangladesh's economic structure is taking the country forward. For example, in terms of GDP, Bangladesh is now much more dependent on industry and services. This sector is now creating employment, which the agricultural sector is not able to do. On the other hand, India is struggling to revive the industrial sector and people are still much more dependent on agriculture. Apart from this, some other social indicators are also taking Bangladesh forward. Such as health, sanitation, financial inclusion and women's participation in politics. Here is a good example. For example, Bangladesh lags behind India in terms of sanitation. However, the death rate due to unsafe water and sanitation is higher in India and lower in Bangladesh.

Challenge for Bangladesh

This is not the first time that Bangladesh has advanced in per capita GDP. Once in 1991, Bangladesh went ahead. India's GDP growth that year was only 1 percent. A year later, however, India went ahead again. The question is, will it go ahead again?

Even if it lags behind Bangladesh this time, India will turn around next year.

Even if it lags behind Bangladesh this time, India will turn around next year. For example, in 2021, India's growth will be 7.6 percent and GDP per capita against the dollar will increase by 6.2 percent. On the other hand, at the same time, the growth of Bangladesh will be 5.4 percent.

The answer, of course, is in the IMF report. The international organization says in its report that even if it lags behind Bangladesh this time, India will turn around next year. For example, in 2021, India's growth will be 7.8 percent and per capita GDP will increase by 6.2 percent against the dollar. On the other hand, at the same time, the growth of Bangladesh will be 5.4 percent. As a result, India's per capita GDP will rise 2,030 next year, with Bangladesh expected to reach 1,990. However, it is true that in the last few years, Bangladesh has narrowed the gap with India in per capita GDP. Even if it lags behind again, Bangladesh will continue to challenge India in the coming years.

There is no chance of complacency as Bangladesh is moving forward.

Bangladesh is in the top three of growth

Because, in terms of poverty rate, Bangladesh is in a worse position than India. Due to Covid-19, the number of new poor people will increase at a much higher rate in Bangladesh. Again, the growth of Bangladesh has been criticized for several years, it is the growth without employment. As a result, GDP growth has increased, but employment has not. Again, in terms of inflation, Bangladesh is not in a tolerable position. Food inflation tends to rise. So many challenges have been created in front of Bangladesh. If we want to move forward, Bangladesh has to move forward by facing these challenges.