NFL Picks for the Championship Round are here — WE WERE SO ABSURDLY CLOSE!
Welcome back to NFL Picks!
DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEK SUMMARY
SO... CLOSE!
After a perfect Divisional Week, the Packers decided to let us down. All the rest, impeccable. Even my predictions about how the other games would unfold came out on point, as you can check for yourselves. It's surreal to me that, of all the things that could go wrong for Green Bay, the weather was the thing ultimately getting in their way. In a stable weather, I have no doubt they would've seen the Niners off with a much more prolific passing game being in place.
Either way, WE TURNED A PROFIT! AGAIN!
After the SuperBowl, I'll bring the full breakdown of what happened during the season, with % of correct picks and money balance.
PICKS: 3 out of 4 (75% accuracy)
BALANCE: $40 placed - $62.5 as return = PROFIT $22.5
How about the game against the market in the NFL PREDICTION GAME?
We... didn't get them! LOL! Problem was, as you can see, those damn Packers!!! It was the game I had the most confidence going in, as the slider shows. And failing that ultimately sealed our fate. I "hedged my bets" correctly elsewhere, which would have been enough to secure a W.
You'll see my "confidence sliders" for this week at the end of the post. Should we have any important adjustments between the time of the post and the start of the game, there will be a new post updating the situation.
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND!
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF!
COMMENTS ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED!
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PICKS
CIN @ KC - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.22)
What could go wrong: Chiefs' defense failing to capitalize on one or two turnovers. Expected weather: around 38F - 3ºC, firm skies. I have absolutely no doubt that KC can rescue a win from the jaws of the defeat — I'd be crazy to say otherwise, especially after last week. But one morale hit to Burrow and Co. would go a long way. Bengals didn't play conservative or afraid or shy last time out in Kansas City, and it paid off. They'd better "drown those kittens" in the river soon and get a good headstart. We all know too well what usually happens when a team has to play chasing a deficit. Anyway, it's gonna be a very tough game for the Bengals, which is understandably an incredible Cinderella Story this season. I'm fine with either of those teams winning and I'm going with the one that's knocking — should I say 'punching' — on the door for longer. Mahomes gets his 3rd shot at a ring, in his young but stellar career.
SF @ LAR - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.5)
What could go wrong: Rivalry insanity. Expected weather: DOME. Look, we know divisional games can go nuts, right? This Rams team is by far the best of the two rosters at the moment but, as we all witnessed, they've lost both games to SF this season, including a key one in the last week of the regular season, which send the Niners to the playoffs and had the Rams drop in the seed ranks. Oh, by the way, Shanahan has won the last SIX GAMES against McVay. That kinda... makes you wonder if Shanny's got his former 'office mate' all figured out. I don't expect the Rams jumping ahead as they did against the Bucs, but SF might be faced with a similar situation: their best OL, Trent Williams, has not practiced all week. I'm expecting him to play, but we don't know — and won't know — what he's gonna be feeling like. Last week, missing one single OL meant way too many. Donald and Von Miller had a feast in the backfield repeatedly and catapulted their team to a road win. LAR has everything they could have dreamed of at the start of the season: they are deciding a SuperBowl ticket-punching game, at home, they are relatively healthy, their roster got better with two stars in OBJ and Miller AND THEY GET TO PLAY THE SUPER BOWL AT HOME if they win on Sunday. I'm betting on more star power wearing blue as the game decider. However, in any given Sunday, in the NFL... well, we've seen a thing or two.
How I feel about the Prediction Game Slider this week?
SUBJECT TO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK
If anything rash happens, I'll update with a new post.
Well, that's it for this week.
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