NFL Picks 2021 SEASON BREAKDOWN is here — HOW MUCH DID WE EARN (or lose)?
NFL 2021 SEASON FINAL NUMBERS!
"After the SuperBowl, I'll bring the full breakdown of what happened during the season, with % of correct picks and money balance."
Hello everyone, and welcome back. After a hectic couple of weeks, in which I failed to deliver the aforementioned 'Season Balance' post, here I am to see what kind of 'scorched earth' scenario we are looking at LOL!
Without any further ado, let's get to it:
SEASON PICKS: 184 out of 284 (64.8% accuracy)
BALANCE: $2840 placed - $2653.6 as return = LOSS $186.4
(Here is where things get interesting!!!)
I did not disclose this during the season, but during this NFL season I would rank games in terms of how certain I was about a given game's outcome. This certainty wasn't based in any formal mathematical or statistical model, it was just my gut feeling about something, gauging things based on the experience of being an NFL fan for roughly 20 years now.
So I ranked them in FOUR LEVELS of certainty:
BLUE (very certain);
YELLOW (unsure), and;
RED (I have no capability to give a reasonable prediction of what's going to happen).
As you'll see, my gut feeling usually correlates with what the betting markets say about a game, given the odds they've put up for a given game (or the aggregate of games in that "range of certainty").
So let's look at all those games, stratified with this criteria (yes, I kept track of what I thought about a game before ALL GAMES during the season):
38 total games — 29 correct | 9 incorrect
Average odds for the sample: $1.165 for every $1
RETURN: -12.4% of the money committed to those games.
73 total games — 53 correct | 20 incorrect
Average odds for the sample: $1.276 for every $1
RETURN: -7.9% of the money committed to those games.
86 total games — 53 correct | 33 incorrect
Average odds for the sample: $1.4505 for every $1
RETURN: -11.86% of the money committed to those games.
87 total games — 49 correct | 38 incorrect
Average odds for the sample: $1.7825 for every $1
RETURN: +0.4% of the money committed to those games.
As you can see by this breakdown, although there was much less certainty regarding the games labeled as RED, and although my accuracy went down, the return on the money was WAY BETTER!!!
This is obviously due to the higher odds, everybody knows that. However, what surprised me was checking the actual measurements with a big sample of games.
This is definitely something I'll be taking with me for the upcoming season: I'll be bringing the NFL picks as usual, but I'm going to anticipate and be transparent about my feelings regarding a certain game, so we can keep track of them for one more season.
Your inputs in the comment section are and will still be very much appreciated!
How about the game against the market in the NFL PREDICTION GAME?
Well, about that one, it's really hard to say what could have really happened had I discovered the Prediction Game prior to Week 1.
I've managed to get really close to the top 100 predictors against the market, but those weeks I missed on sliding the markers left and right really ended up making a difference. Lots of points left on the table.
I'll keep playing the Prediction Game next season. This time out, from the first kickoff to the last.
Honestly, I don't know yet. I thought about adding some NBA Parlays while we still have a regular season going on, but that's also about to end. And during the playoffs, variance goes sky high and that would be a waste of time for someone who hasn't really followed that league so closely during the season.
Come next NFL season, I will, as I've mentioned before, try to add more nuances when it comes to the certainty of a given prediction. I'll also be looking to suggest the best parlays in a given week. I've lost a lot of profit expectancy by trying to get all weekly picks correctly TOGETHER. I'll keep trying to do that, out of pride. But I will point to better, "shorter" ideas in each and every week.
I could definitely see myself bringing some extra notes when the NFL Draft gets closer and closer, being transparent and commiting myself to some informal bets on players I think will do well among the pros and also my 'super early busts prediction'. It will be fun to go back to these posts a couple of seasons later and laugh at how wrong I was!!!
For now, though, I think the blog is going to be on "Pause" mode for a few weeks, unless I can find a new niche to ramble about in here.
Well, that's it for this week.
Thank you all so much for reading, commenting, tipping, subscribing and being a part of the 2021 season journey! Hope to see you again come September — or sooner! Who knows?