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Bitcoin transactions have been crowded since April 30, when the virtual currency market soared.
The capacity of the memory pool (mempool) of the Bitcoin network has increased rapidly, and the number of unconfirmed transactions has reached 80,000.
The 80,000 number is near the highest level in the middle of 2018 when the bubble market ended. That means that there was a demand for moving Bitcoin.
Data at the time of the bubble with the most transactions: data at the end of 2017, when the “scalability problem” that asked the scalability of Bitcoin was actively discussed, it was confirmed that 180,000 transactions were blocked.
What is a memory pool
A memory pool (mempool) is a pool in which transactions sent by users are temporarily placed.A miner who finds the correct nonce acquires the right to create a block from the memory pool and connect it to the blockchain. Is generated.
It is an image of a "waiting place/pending" waiting for valid transactions to be confirmed by the Bitcoin network. In some cases, the increase in the number of transactions waiting can lead to delays in remittance and higher transaction fees. (Because the maximum block size is fixed and transactions with high fees are prioritized)
If you check the status of fees and approval time at bitcoinfees.earn.com, the zone of fees that does not delay the transfer (probably zero waiting time) is 99 to 100 Satoshi. The lowest price standard for smooth confirms that fees have already risen.
At this point, delays in remittances and soaring fees are expected to be temporary.
Regarding the factor, it is considered that the temporary increase in remittance demand is a factor, as the decrease in hash rate of the mining pool has not been confirmed.
Trading demand due to soaring bitcoins
Arbitrage demand due to price volatility
Japanese trader withdrawing from BitMEX
It is thought that the main factors are 1 and 2, but since May 1st BitMEX bans transactions by residents of Japan, it has been pointed out that the rush rush may also be one factor. There is.
At BitMEX, existing users announced restrictions on transactions using BitMEX from Japan as of May 1, in response to the virtual currency related amendment bill that will be enforced in Japan from May 1.
Halving coming up!
It was found that the attention on BTC halving increasing in the world in response to the soaring price of Bitcoin.
According to the trend of Google trend, the search trend of "bitcoin halving" is double the global standard from the previous halving. If it is limited to the United States, it has tripled, and in Japan it has increased to four times.
Global (English) "Search word: bitcoin halving"
United States "Search word: bitcoin halving"
Japan "Search word: Bitcoin halving"
Different trends in the world, the US, and Japan
Although it is not an accurate comparison due to the different languages to be searched and the scale of the number of searches, it showed different trends in the world, the United States, and Japan in the search for the halving of Bitcoin.
The common point is that the level of interest has increased significantly since the past half-life. On the other hand, the different trends have the following two points.
Search volume ratio by half-life ratio 4 years ago
Time when this half-life was taken into consideration
Regarding the ratio, as mentioned above, it is possible that the interest level of Japanese people was lower than that of the world during the halving of 2016.
Regarding the “initial movement” in which the number of searches for the half-life increased significantly, it was confirmed in Japan in December 2019, whereas it was confirmed in the United States and global (English-speaking) in the middle of March.
This data shows that the market was conscious of Japan early on, and it became clear that users in the English-speaking world did not consider halving early.
Increasing interest due to rising prices and the coming of age is likely to be an important indicator for maintaining the expected value after the halving.
"I don't know the exact halving time, but different articles have different halving times."
These voices also increased as the halving approached.
The exact date and time of execution of the halving cannot be known because it is determined by the number of blocks in Bitcoin. Timing is every 210,000 blocks (number of generated blocks per day x 365 days x 4 years). This year, the halving will be executed when it reaches 630,000 blocks.
The date and time is the number of blocks remaining until the execution block is calculated backward by the average block generation time of 10 minutes, and may change depending on the block generation status.
As of 11 o'clock on May 1, 628.408 blocks have been generated, and 1.592blocks remain until the execution block. If this is converted into a date and time, it will be about 11 days later, around 12th.
Bitcoin has reduced its block reward to 6.25 BTC after its halving. Inflation is expected to fall to 1.8%.