How much will Trump's foreign policy change if Joe Biden becomes president?

There are only a few days left before the US presidential election, which has nurtured democracy as a system of governance for two and a half centuries. As the President of the United States is the head of state and the head of government at the same time, the internal affairs of the United States are immense. So far, Democratic candidate Joe Biden has been leading in all polls, with Biden leading the way in the polls. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio are known as the swing states of the United States, and Florida is also known as the deciding state. Apart from this, Biden is also ahead in states like North Carolina and North Dakota and is also ahead in getting class votes. Joe Biden enjoys a record of being ahead of the ruling party in opinion polls since the 1938 US presidential election.

Despite all the polls, the defeat in the 2016 election may still haunt Democrats, as well as political analysts. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump was a test case for US voters. Earlier, military generals were elected president of the United States, as were members of the US legislature. Donald Trump was a man outside of this traditional background, never served in the military, nor was he a member of the legislature. Sadly, in the last four years, the testcase of U.S. voters has failed, the society of the United States has been divided many times, and Trump has failed to lead the United States. As a result, the imaginary image of Donald Trump has come to an end.

In the remaining days of the election, any October surprise can change the calculation, can change the demographics of the vote. But, if there is no such thing as unimaginable, there is no good news for Donald Trump, there is no possibility of coming down in the presidential election. Alan Lickman's analysis, which has accurately predicted the last nine presidential elections, offers a similar explanation for Biden's victory.

Six-time Senator Joe Biden once served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and also on the Judiciary Committee. Biden, who served as vice president in the Obama administration, was an influential figure in the administration's foreign policy. If Joe Biden is elected President of the United States in the 2020 presidential election, how much will Trump's foreign policy change? How will the United States protect its own interests and those of its allies?

The United States will be at the center of international politics

Outside of the traditional political environment, Donald Trump has shown inability to present the United States globally as president, during which time the United States has lost control of one international organization after another. Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, and has begun withdrawing allegations of incompetence from the World Health Organization. The United States has been embroiled in various global conflicts and has failed to protect the interests of its allies. As a result, with the "America First" policy, Donald Trump has largely returned to the conservative trend, leaving the leadership seat.

Joe Biden, who has worked in international politics for a long time, will definitely want the United States back in the lead if elected president. The first step in returning to the global leadership seat will be international vaccine management, where Biden will seek to lead. The United States is suffering from a crisis of qualified representatives in various international organizations, and Biden would like to see an effective solution. The United States has a global diplomatic network that Biden wants to use to advance US interests, to protect the interests of allies. That is, if Biden is elected president from Trump's conservative foreign policy, he will return to the center of traditional global leadership.

Restoring relationships with allies

During his tenure as President of the United States, Donald Trump has made various decisions against the interests of the Allies, various decisions have left the Allies in disarray, creating a security crisis. Relations between the United States and its longtime European allies have cooled under Trump, and the rate of mutual interest has decreased. Important allies of the United States, such as Germany and France, have also been embarrassed by Trump's behavior.

If Biden is elected president, an important challenge will be to restore cooperative relations with allied countries, to return to the concept of collective security. India, a longtime ally of the United States, has recently faced Chinese aggression, losing control of key areas. Donald Trump's administration did not stand by India during this crisis, Donald Trump's comments on this issue have been the food of laughter. If Biden is elected president, there will be relatively more international attention to such aggression.

The exchange of values serves as a key element in international politics. Trump's populist U.S. values are similar to those of Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom, Rudrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Modi, who pursues divisive politics in India, and even Kim Jong Un of North Korea. If Biden is elected president, foreign policy will move away from these populist leaders to countries with democratic values, to countries with freedom of speech.

Middle East

The Middle East has been an important part of US foreign policy since the turn of the century, and its endless conflict has become an important issue in international politics. Donald Trump did not engage in any new conflict in his presidency, nor did he create any conflict. However, Trump's Middle East peace plan has been widely criticized in the Muslim world, sparking a new crisis in the Arab world. The Middle East monarchy has become stronger under Trump, the monarchy has gained immunity.

If Joe Biden is elected president, he will have to control the turmoil in Turkey-Iran-Saudi regional politics from a place of power-equality, and the US foreign policy under Trump will come out of the Saudi-UAE-Israel belt. Biden has already backed a six-nation deal with Iran, promising to withdraw troops from the Middle East. However, with the withdrawal of troops, the United States is less likely to withdraw its hand from the Middle East, using drones instead of troops under Biden.

However, in a nutshell, Biden could break away from the trend that Trump created with the monarchy in the Middle East and focus on reviving democratic values. In addition, immigration to the United States from the Middle East will increase, from where a large portion of the United States' academic intellectuals come.

Populism and authoritarianism in the third world

Populist politicians use class, tribe, caste to create divisions among the people, present a section of the people as enemies of the people, incite the deprivation of the rights of minorities. As a result, the practice of democratic values was repeatedly hampered during the period of populist rulers, and authoritarianism arose.

Under Donald Trump, there has been a global rise of populists, as well as authoritarianism that stands in opposition to democratic values. If Joe Biden, a leftist, is elected president, these populists will be challenged globally, as will the authoritarians who came to power through questionable elections. Another rise in global liberal democratic values can be seen in Biden's time, which has been steadily declining under Trump.

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea

Donald Trump and Joe Biden share a similar view of China, which he sees as the biggest threat to US interests. After being elected president, even Joe Biden is unlikely to pursue a very exceptional foreign policy on the China issue, and the trade war is unlikely to end. Rather, the conflict over China's expansionist activities will escalate under Joe Biden, increasing the distance.

While talking about a return to a nuclear arms deal with Russia, the United States is unlikely to normalize relations with Russia under Biden. Rather, the actions of Russian hackers during Hillary Clinton's election will encourage Biden to take a tougher stance against Russia. Although North Korea now emerges as a major threat to U.S. security, Joe Biden has not yet made a clear statement on the issue.

However, Iran could see a glimmer of hope if Biden is elected president. Biden has already promised to return to the six-nation deal with Iran, promising to lift all economic sanctions if conditions are met.

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