Factors Affecting Cryptocurrency Prices
Supply and Demand. The supply of Bitcoin is limited by code in the Bitcoin blockchain. The rate of increase of the supply of Bitcoin decreases until the number of Bitcoin reaches 21 million, which is expected to take place in the year 2140. As Bitcoin adoption increases, the slowing growth in the number of Bitcoin all but assures that the price of Bitcoin will continue to grow.
Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency with limits on issuance. The supply of Litecoin will be capped at 84 million units. The purpose of the limit is to provide increased transparency in the money supply, in contrast to government-backed currencies. With the major currencies being created on open source codes, any given individual can determine the supply of the currency and make a judgment about its value accordingly.
Applications of the Cryptocurrency.Cryptocurrencies require a use case to have any value. A miner of a rare metal may see rapid appreciation in value if it’s used, for example, in the next iPhone 8; if the metal is not used, however, it becomes worthless. The same dynamic applies to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has value as a means of exchange; alternate cryptocurrencies can either improve on the Bitcoin model, or have another usage that creates value, such as Ether. As uses for cryptocurrencies increase, corresponding demand and value also increase.
Regulatory Changes. Because the regulation of cryptocurrencies has yet to be determined, value is strongly influenced by expectations of future regulation. In an extreme case, for example, the United States government could prohibit citizens from holding cryptocurrencies, much as the ownership of gold in the US was outlawed in the 1930s. It’s likely that ownership of cryptocurrency would move offshore in such a case, but it would still severely undermine their value.
Technology Changes. Unlike physical commodities, changes in technology affect cryptocurrency prices. July and August 2017 saw the price of Bitcoin negatively impacted by controversy about altering the underlying technology to improve transaction times. Once the change was completed, the price of Bitcoin shot up—increasing from $2700 to a record high of $4000 in just over two weeks. Conversely, news reports of hacking often lead to price decreases.
Still, given the volatility of this emerging phenomenon, there is a risk of a crash. Many experts have noted that in the event of a cryptocurrency market collapse, that retail investors would suffer the most. According to Mohamed Damak, S&P Global Rating sector lead, “For now, a meaningful drop in cryptocurrencies’ market value would be just a ripple across the financial services industry, still too small to disturb stability or affect the creditworthiness of banks we rate.” Read more here on the bear case of the cryptocurrency market.