Adaptation - Winning in a Post COVID-19 World

I was shocked to see a blog post recently that considered Evolution to be fake. I was even more stunned to see that everyone in the comments actually supported the idea that evolution is fake.

Without a doubt I think that we should all question everything, however I didn't see any arguments in the comments against evolution, just simple beliefs against it.

Evolution is adaptation to a changing environment. That's it. The bit about us evolving from apes is emergent and coincidental.

In this post, I want to focus on specifically our ability to adapt to a changing environment.

Given that fact that our environment has radically changed, do we still have the ability to adapt?

Rather than speculate with beliefs let's look at who is winning and losing in these massively uncertain times. This is perhaps one way of ascertaining who is adapting well.

Finances

Sasol lost 90% of it share value in two days. Oil futures fell to negative $36. The JSE is still deep in the red and the rand lost 20% of it's value.

The winners are Telsa whose stock increased 9%. Bitcoin is more than doubled since hitting its low, gold is reaching all time highs and Hex is up 725%.

That's what happened on the in the finance space.

In the food production space the following happened.

Slaughterhouses around the world have been shut down . Chicken sales in India dropped 50%, and dairy farmers are dump their milk because its not usable, and meat markets around the world are being banned.

The winners however, are vegan companies like Beyond Meat whose shares went up 12%, the vegetable produce sector that is operational and technology companies like Zoom that are dominate market share.

Why are they winning

So the question must be asked - why are some winning during the world worst pandemic in modern times, and why are some losing?

What is it that has enabled these winners to adapt to quickly?

What is it that enables them to flourish in adverse times?

The answer is foresight. They have awareness of what's happening in the world, and what will happen. They have been preparing long time for a new normal.

This is what research gives you. It's a crystal ball that illuminates the vagaries of the future.

What were the signs?

In 2008 Dr Gregor a renowned scientist gave a presentation about the severity of upcoming pandemics originating from livestock. Bill Gates gave a TED talk about this in 2015. The CDC said that 3 out of every 4 new or emerging infectious diseases in people come from animals.

For the past 15 years, financial luminaries like Max Keiser, Jim Rickards and Nomi Prins have spoken about the fragility of the global economy and a potential full scale economic collapse. They also recommended certain actions to take to preserve wealth.

Likewise Al Gore in 2005 spoke of an impending Climate crisis heading our way.

Who Adapted

Tesla, Beyond Meat, Bitcoin, Gold, Solar and a myriad of other companies who listened to the information came out as winners. Those who continue the status quo whilst ignoring the facts lost badly.

Today adaptation isn't about how big our brains grow, or how much faster our muscles move.

Adaptation for us is about much can we read, how much can we discern, can we act accordingly on the facts irrespective of our beliefs. Can we think critically given certain information.

George Soros, perhaps the worlds great investor coined a term "Reflexivity". It refers to the how congruent perception and reality are. If perception and reality are disconnected then we get a economic crash. However if perception and reality are the same we can become prosperous.

If we can see the facts for what they are, we will be adapt. If we learn to read the signs of our environment then we will thrive.

In a post COVID-19 world the winners will be those who see reality.