Bitcoin and BCH: too soon? Are we going to the moon?

Dec 14, 2022

Too early or at a good time? Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching $18,000, thanks to the release of encouraging inflation data in the United States. Can markets expect a bullish continuation and a quick recovery to $19,000?

Bitcoin Price: CPI Drives Bulls

Bitcoin price surges as high as $17,981 on Bitfinex today, December 13, 2022. The cryptocurrency is trading at $17,761 at the time of writing. Its price is currently recording a daily gain of around 3%.

The price of Bitcoin reacts positively to the publication of the latest data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI rose 7.1% for the 12-month period ending in November, versus forecasts of 7.3%.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, this is the “lowest increase in 12 months since the period ending December 2021.” Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, against forecasts of 0.3%.

Interest rates face the challenge of $19,000

Following today's ascent, the Whalemap team recalled the existence of a "gap" in terms of concentration of whales, between $17,400 and $19,000. It predicts a rise to $19,000 if Bitcoin price manages to consolidate above $17,400.

Are these forecasts realistic or too optimistic in the current context? The daily Bitcoin price chart below shows that the cryptocurrency has finally managed to break through the resistance at the 30-day exponential moving average – orange line – which stands at $17,245.

However, an analysis of the Bitcoin price with the Ichimoku shows that today's rise was halted by a cloud, which could complicate a bullish continuation in the $18,000-$19,000 area.

The following chart shows the BTC in 1-day candles.

Can Bitcoin then benefit from the announcements of the next FOMC meeting of the American Federal Reserve (FED) scheduled for tomorrow, to cross this zone?

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 425 – 450 basis points is currently 79.4%, compared to 20.6% for a target range of 450 – 475 basis points.

How will the markets react and what will be the strength of this reaction to a possible moderation in rate hikes?

Despite today's bullish momentum, caution is still warranted. Markets need to hold prices against the possibility of another bear run during this persistent crypto winter. The crypto industry is not immune to another shakeup, again due to the FTX disaster. Speaking of FTX, the person in charge (Sam) is already behind bars, he was arrested. We'll see where this all ends.

It has been nice to see how the BCH has also increased in value and the USDT in the wallet increased.

Do you think we will return to happy times?