Hey everyone,

It’s update time. Uptober is finally here!

So am I bathing in cash?

YES!

In my dreams. Truth is, we’re still down about 0.2%.

But there’s been a subtle change in overall market sentiment. Like something telling us that good days are coming.

Or at least that’s how it feels. Because in reality things are not looking that great.

The market and short-term predictions

There’s rumors about banks collapsing, Europe is falling apart, inflation is still at all-time highs for most of the world and the UN is begging the FED to stop raising interest rates. There’s even a rumor that the money printer will be soon turned back on because foreign currencies are dipping like shitcoins.

But frustration with the current financial system is what caused the birth of crypto. Maybe people will get so mad at banks and governments that they will look for alternatives. We already saw Bitcoin inflows surging in the UK as the pound was collapsing. Maybe the great decoupling is not that far away.

Probably not. Trading the global financial collapse by betting on crypto would be an unorthodox move to say the least. It’s very unlikely that events like these will leave the crypto markets unaffected.

At the current stage, crypto is mostly a tech-driven and innovation-driven industry. And these things don’t perform very well when there’s economic stagnation.

So what do all of these mean? It means that the next CPI report and the next FOMC meeting are extra important.

Honestly, I expect inflation numbers to be hot. And I expect the market to tank again. But maybe this will lead us towards the inevitable bottom, and from there I can start to make moves more comfortably.

I’ve found so many good opportunities in the last few weeks but I’m too scared to make risky moves right now. Especially after what happened last month. It’s better to wait for the inflation numbers and then try to think more long-term.

What makes me feel a little bit more comfortable however is that I’m seeing plenty of very attractive prices without feeling like I’m trying to catch a falling knife.

For example, I mentioned how after ATOM 2.0, Cosmos is one of my highest-conviction bets in the entire industry. Cosmos is now trading at $13 after hitting a high of $16.9 this month and a low of $12.03. So I can finally buy without feeling like I’m overpaying or feeling like I’m trying to fight the market’s momentum. $13 is a great entry point for ATOM in my opinion and it’s one of the coins that I’ll be buying and staking once I get in.

But before we check on any new moves, let’s see how the current portfolio is performing.

Portfolio

DAI represents the ETH put I profited from 2 weeks ago

Most coins are still in the red, with Premia casually doing a +22% in the last 24hours. Let’s go through all the coins one by one:

ETH

I’m not messing with my ETH holdings this week. I think there’s a solid chance it’s never going below $1k again and also, it’s the highest cap coin I’m holding. I don’t think it would be wise to go full degen right now, and while BTC outperforms Ethereum historically in October, I don’t think it makes sense to get into Bitcoin now either. I’m not totally against it however so don’t be surprised if you see me flip some ETH for BTC.

MATIC

Polygon had a very solid week, +12% in the last 7 days. Since this is a project I believe long-term (this, ETH, ATOM, and BNB, if you’ve read my Bear Market guide you know what I’m talking about), and it’s no longer a Merge play, I have 2 options:

• Stake it right now for an estimated APY of ~19% in Binance

• Sell now and try to catch a bottom after the CPI numbers

After some heavy consideration, I decided that the second option is f*cking stupid.

So I just staked my 113 MATIC and decided that if I wanna play Michael Burry with this coin I can just short MATIC on Margin near the CPI numbers and then use the profits to buy even more.

Staked 113 Matic with Binance at an est. APR of 19%

Premia

Holding. Obviously. At this point Premia could be here just for entertainment purposes. Jokes aside, this is a very solid project and I’m waiting for their V3 update that is coming out some time this month.

dYdX

Selling. I took a hard L on this move trying to buy a bottom. As much as I love the dYdX v4 plan (standalone chain in Cosmos to become the biggest decentralized futures exchange), I don’t expect it to happen any time soon. What I do expect to happen soon tho, is the market dumping/shorting the token when they realize that the circulating supply essentially doubles in January because of token unlocks.

BNB

Was thinking about selling it last week but BNB is a classic bear market coin. Will be holding

XMON

Sudoswap has been overperforming competitors this month, so I’m going to double down for the airdrop.

Synapse

It’s been a good performer but I’m going to exit my positions and get into other opportunities.

Cardano

Since the Vasil Hard Fork is now completed, this pick only makes sense from a long-term perspective. I believe in the vision and the tech and I have staked some Cardano in my main portfolio, but it’s not what I need for this challenge. I’m selling.

ThorChain

I want to maintain exposure to the cross-chain sector, so since I sold Synapse I’m going to hold. It’s a relatively safe bet long-term in my opinion because it is the market leader for something that will have very high demand in the future. Will be looking more into the project this week and figuring out if it makes sense to lock the token for rewards

Illuvium

Hard L in this play as well. I believe in this project long term but maybe this is not the best way to stay exposed to the Crypto Gaming sector. Maybe I’ll flip it for blue-chip gaming coins like Gala, Decentraland or Sandbox

The moves

Selling

Sold 58.12 dYdX for $68 (-18.09%)

Sold 39.3 SYN for $51.96 (+3.9%)

Sold 104 ADA for $55 (-8.86%)

Sold 0.669 ILV for $38.79 (-22%)

Total amount of cash from sales: $213.75

Total cash available: $443.75

Buying

First and foremost, I’ll buy and stake $100 in X2Y2, in the autocompounder. Why? I’ve already dedicated an entire post to that, you should read it here.

Truth is that at the time of the post X2Y2 was almost at an all-time low, Since I made the post it’s up 12%, which makes me a little scared to put a lot of money in here but remember, this is a yield play. I kinda wished I pulled the trigger 3 days ago instead of waiting for the challenge update but whatever. I trust my analysis and still consider it the most asymmetric bet in crypto right now.

Bought $100 of X2Y2 at 0.094 (1062 X2Y2) and staked it in the auto-compounder

I will also buy $100 of Optimism. I double down on my Layer 2s play and for a good reason. TVL has been surging in these protocols and they’ve been consistently outperforming Alternative Layer1s like Cardano and Avalanche in terms of capital inflows.

Bought $100 of OP at $0.862 (116 OP)

So that leaves us with $243 in cash. From that, I’ll use $100 to buy my new favorite coin, ATOM. I’ll be also looking to stake it. I’ve talked about how I put ATOM in the same tier as ETH, BNB, and MATIC in terms of conviction level that they’ll be profitable investments. I’ll stake an amount with Binance at the crazy est. APR of 35.86% for 120 days, and use the rest of it to play in the Cosmos Ecosystem.

Bought $100 of ATOM at $13.17 (7.65 ATOM). Staked 5 ATOM with Binance at an est. APR of 35.86%

Total cash left = $143.

I’m feeling extra degenerate this month.

I’ll be looking to spend that extra $43 to XMON in the next dip. As I said, I’m doubling down on the SUDO airdrop.

And the rest of $100 will be used to protect me from downside. Instead of playing it safe and keeping capital in cash to avoid getting rekt on a dump, I decided to use that capital to buy puts and futures whenever I believe there’s a significant chance that the market will dump.

So I’m essentially hedging my risk through gambling even harder. r/wallstreetbets would be proud.

So the updated portfolio after all the moves looks like this:

Updated Tether to include the liquidation losses from the perpetual future 2 weeks ago

Other opportunities

These are things I keep my eyes on and will probably publish analysis in a few days

Chainlink

After the updated tokenomics, this has the potential to be in my high-conviction bets territory

Doge

Yes seriously Doge. Elon is buying Twitter so if he decides to incorporate the coin in to the platform somehow, this thing could moon.

IMX

A more long-term move because they have a token unlock in the 5th of November. Maybe I can find a crazy discount for an otherwise solid project

Dust

I’ve talked before how I want exposure to the DeGods ecosystem, especially with the y00t reveal coming up. I have to take a look in its tokenomics before I make any decisions

Tokenized Blue-chip NFTs

The more I get into the NFT rabbithole, the more I understand that the boom we saw in 2021 was only the beginning. The NFT space is here to stay and OG collections like Cryptopunks could be super valuable in the future. KuCoin offers an option to buy the 1/1000000 of NFTs like Cryptopunks, Bored Apes etc. They’ve essentially bought the NFT and tokenized it. It’s a good way to get exposure without breaking the bank

That’s all I have. I delayed this update two days because I wanted to make sure that I’ve done the proper research to make moves. This is probably the most-action packed post in the series so far. Let me know what you think of my moves in the comments.

In the following days, expect more posts on the Bear Market guide series, and the much anticipated NFTs post I’ve been working on for so long.

As always, If you want to see my moves in real time, get live updates for the challenge, or discuss crypto and web3 with me, follow me on Twitter. Stay safe, and see y’all next week!

Remember: this is NOT financial advice. Content is purely for entertainment purposes. Also, I know that this image isn’t from the Wolf of Wall Street. It just looked cool as an outro.