The reasons that I turned bullish on BCH

I'm a finance guy that have experiences in Stock and FX Market, and I bearish on cryptos during 2017 to 2018. But I change my thoughts and bullish on crypto markets last year, especially on BCH.

The first time that I heard bitcoin and cryptos was in Feb 2017, when the bitcoin price was just above $1000. During that summer, bitcoin became a hot topic and the price increased to $3000 - $4000. Everybody talked about blockchain and bitcoin, but to me, it was just another speculation case for the following reasons:

1. No valuable applications: I don't see any commercial applications of bitcoin at that time

2. extremely high volatility: many bitcoin believers said bitcoin would replace fiat money in 2017, but the high volatility could prevent bitcoin to achieve that goal, not to say other problems. From my point of view, with that volatility, the biggest 'application' of bitcoin was investment, or speculation.

3. regulations: the anonymous feature of cryptos definitely will face regulations soon.

Thus, I didn't buy any cryptos during 2017 , and the collapse of crypto market around the beginning of 2018 was not unexpected to me. While I thought the bitcoin games was over (no liquidity any more), the price was rebound many times during 2019 (still pretty high trading volume), so I started to learn blockchain and crypto market and realised that bitcoin and cryptos do have their values. Among all cryptos, BCH is my favorite.

1. the reason to bullish on crypto market

   (1) QE: QE is the trend, I may talk about this in another article. With the fiat money deprecated, cryptos (and stocks, commodities) market size tend to increase.

   (2) the value of blockchain: I believe blockchain is a breakthrough technology that can solve many problems in our world in the near future. Although blockchain is not equal to cryptos, but they are closely related.

2. why BCH?

   (1) BCH is 'Bitcoin': the reason that bitcoin can represent and dominate the cryptos is the first mover advantage. This advantage is so important that, from my point of view, no other cryptos could replace bitcoin in many years (ten or even more). However, BCH is the first 'hard fork' blockchain from bitcoin, in other words, the different opinion in the 'original bitcoin community' split the 'original bitcoin' into two communities: 'new bitcoin' (current bitcoin) and BCH. Theoretically, both 'new bitcoin' and BCH could represent the 'original bitcoin' and thus represent cryptos.

   (2) keep decentralised feature: the basic idea behind the cryptos and blockchains is the decentralised feature, and that is the value of them. We can see some blockchain projects, such as EOS, achieve higher performance through supernodes model, which sacrifice decentralised feature. BCH keep this most important feature of blockchain, and increase the performance (far better than bitcoin) largely meanwhile.

   (3) potentials to support real applications: the performance of blockchain is one of the most important factor to generate commercial value. Compared with bitcoin, BCH has much lower transfer fees, much higher transfer speed, etc. which make BCH has much higher commercial value than bitcoin.

Eventually, I believe that BCH could replace current bitcoin to represent the 'original bitcoin', with huge commercial value, whereas the current bitcoin would more like a 'symbol' or gold. Of course, this could take a long time to happen (if would happen).

Finally, there are still some problems that cryptos may face in the future:

1. regulations: cryptos market size is still small-the whole cryptos market is less than half of the market cap of Facebook. If cryptos market want to become another 'stock market', regulation is an inevitable problem.

2. safety: During the last three years, there are lots of hackers successfully attacked personal wallets and exchanges, and due to the decentralised feature, once the asset is lost (especially in personal wallet), it gone forever. So basically there are two kind of risk by holding cryptos (except price volatility), one is being hacked, the other is personal reasons (you lost your wallet and the private key). Thus, how to safely store crypto asset is an important issue.

3. performance: to generate real commercial value, blockchains need to improve the performance further, so how to improve the performance while keeping the decentralised feature is another challenge.

Hope the community could lead BCH to a bright future !