It finally happened: Bitcoin is rising more than 20% on Friday (19), while gold appreciated 0.2%, and US stocks measured by the S & P500 ended the day up 0.4%.
Many said that the thesis of unrelated assets, or even “digital gold”, had died. After all, the 40% drop in the dollar in the month was as strong as the Ibovespa shares, oil, and much worse than the 11% devaluation of gold in the last week.
But, after all, is this an exception day or has there really been a change of feeling?
Funding rate or charge rate
Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts traded on Bitmex, OkEX and Deribit work by charging a charge fee that depends on the amount of leverage of customers. Although the amount of bets on the high (longs) and fall (shorts) is necessarily the same, the side that has the most use of leverage by customers pays a periodic fee. Positive rates mean that high (long) bets pay, while short (short) bets receive, and vice versa when the rate is negative.
Some traders like to buy when the rate is above 0.10%, equivalent to 9.4% per month. For them, the signal that there are investors paying high rates to leverage is a sign of optimism. The opposite is true when the rate is negative at 0.10% or more, signaling pessimism. We continue in the negative territory, but clearly in a much better situation compared to the beginning of the week.
Deposits and withdrawals on exchanges
Through the TokenAnalyst website it is possible to track deposits and withdrawals at the main exchanges. Although a very imperfect analysis, a larger number of withdrawals from BTCs usually means customers buying to keep in cold wallets.
In total, withdrawals exceeded deposits by USD 220.5 million for the week, led by Huobi with USD 183 million net. The reading here, although inaccurate, is positive.
HODL waves
This indicator measures how long the addresses have been without moving currencies. When long-term holders decide to make transfers, this is a warning sign. These people saw hikes to USD 12,000, falls below USD 4,000 and made no move whatsoever. 47.8% of Bitcoins have not been moved for more than 18 months, according to figures from Unchained Capital. Two months ago this indicator was at 48.6%, so it is possible to say that there was no major change in this aspect, which is positive.
Conclusion
The recent spike indicates an adjustment after investors realize there is no reason to panic, as Bitcoin's fundamentals remain intact. The detachment from traditional markets, so far, seems to make sense. The scenario of Central Banks disclosing stimulus packages is beneficial for Bitcoin price, so the recovery movement should continue.
https://livecoins.com.br/a-alta-do-bitcoin-marca-o-inicio-do-descolamento/amp/
I don't know, but it seems like a good move.