How global warming makes Russia superpower again

Climate change is a nightmare for the majority of the nation in the modern world. In 2017, alone the World Economy suffered a $100 billion loss, as a result of climate change and its associated effects. It is feared, that climate change may render some regions inhospitable, triggering a massive migrant crisis.

Numerous island nations are apprehensive about their future viability. Many nations are relocating their capital cities science the old ones are submerging due to the rise in sea level. Indonesia, for example, is considering relocating its capital to Jakarta.

However, the situation will not be universally detrimental for every nation in the present world. According to the IPCC assessment, rising temperatures will be damaging to the temperate and tropical regions, but will present new opportunities for countries in the polar regions such as Canada, Scandinavia, Greenland, Iceland, and, most importantly, Russia.

As global warming continues, the world’s coldest countries will transform into a more tolerable temperate zone. Which will play a critical factor in determining the economic development of nations located in the arctic zone.

Climate Change and Global Economics

Before we understand how climate change will transform Russia into a superpower, it’s vital to understand the economics of climate change.

Numerous scholars are examining the economic effects of climate change, and they suggest that the prevailing atmospheric temperature has a direct effect on human productivity and economic activity.

According to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, an average temperature of 15 degrees Celsius is ideal for human productivity.

(Attribution: Our World In Data, CC BY 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons edited by the author) This map proposed by Mashall burke. The countries lying on the upper half side of the map will show a positive growth rate while countries on the lower half side will show a negative growth rate.

Marshall Burke of Stanford University believes that if we draw a circular line connecting the northernmost regions of the United States and China, the economic impact of climate change will be visible. He also predicted that by the end of the twenty-first century, countries such as the United States of America will lose up to 33% of their economy, while temperate countries such as India would lose up to 92% of their economy. While polar countries such as Canada, Scandinavia, Iceland, and Russia will experience growth of up to 5%.

Facts About Climate Change

The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, asserts that if current warming patterns continue, the global temperature would rise by 3–5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century. because most scientists and policymakers believe that even a 2°C/35.6°F increase in global temperature would be catastrophic for humanity. That is why the IPCC intends to restrict global temperature increases to 1.5°C/34.7°F, yet another WMO data indicates that between 2005 and 2015, the average sea level rose by 3.6mm.

U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) has claimed that the thickest ice sheet of artic has shrunk by 95%.

The most significant consequences of climate change are the rising sea levels, increasing ocean temperatures, disruptive changes in rainfall patterns, and thawing permafrost.

All of these consequences will add up and contribute to an increase in the global hunger index, potentially resulting in global food insecurity crises. … the most severe result will be an increase in the chance of contracting vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria. These diseases are currently most widespread in tropical regions, but they will spread all over the globe once the tropical zone disappears.

Climate change’s negative repercussions also include biodiversity loss and coral reef devastation. And all these effects will have a permanent impact on Sociopolitics and Socioeconomics.

It is anticipated, that climate change would render some regions inhospitable, triggering a big migrant crisis. According to the ‘New York Times,’ report roughly 3 billion people would live in a harsher climatic zone by 2070, creating a major motive for migration. People will migrate from the tropical and temperate regions to the arctic regions.

Climate change-related migration may result in a similar migrant crisis and associated sociopolitical and Socioeconomic issues, as Europe experienced earlier.

Upper Hand of Russia

In March 2017, Russian President Vladamir Putin acknowledged that climate change and resulted melting of ice that has followed are advantageous to the country.

If you Compare Russian megacities with their counterparts in the United States and you will find a startling discrepancy. The majority of U.S megacities are located in climate-vulnerable coastal regions, but only three Russian cities are located in climate-vulnerable coastal regions.

This is one of the reasons why Russia may invest significantly more money in their economy by spending significantly less money on climate change.

So moving forward, in that context, let’s talk about how climate change will help Russia?

(Attribution: Hellerick, Nicolay Sidorov, Seryo93, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons) The coloured portion represents the eastern half of Russia.

Agriculture, and Global Food Shortages

Russia’s eastern half (Siberia) is well-known for its prolonged, harsh winter days. However, the region is undergoing considerable changes as a result of climate change and rising temperatures.

Siberia was never habitable for humans, and the major portion of Siberian land is covered in permafrost. However, the climatic change would alter the face of Siberia.

Permafrost is a layer of the Earth’s surface that is permanently frozen. It is composed of dirt, gravel, and sand that are typically held together by ice.

The tropics and temperate regions will see increased desertification, severe drought, and flooding, resulting in a catastrophic food crisis and motivating people to migrate. The Siberian region of Russia may become the ideal destination for climate change-induced migration and the centre of agriculture production.

When agricultural land becomes scarce, food security will be critical in determining a superpower. In an interview, John Kerry, the first Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, stated the following:

Food security in the tropics and temperate regions is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and it will play a critical role in balancing global power in the future — John Kerry

During the Arab spring, we observed how food insecurity exacerbated sociopolitical instability in the Middle East. Food scarcity and a subsequent increase in food prices were the primary causes of the food riots and political instability.

In that context, Russia is already the major producer of wheat, barley, and oats. Russia produces about a quarter of all wheat grown globally.

Siberia is one of the world’s largest continuous landmasses, accounting for over 9% of the planet’s surface. If it becomes agriculturally viable, Russia will reap enormous benefits from it.

Russian climate ecologist, Nadezhda tachebakova estimated that Russian permafrost will be reduced in half by 2080, and it will be suitable for agriculture.

However, it appears as if the Russian government doesn’t really intend to wait for 2080, there have been gradual attempts to convert wild forests, wetlands, and grassland into soybean and wheat fields. And in the near future, the shift will be considerably more rapid. And this is why Russia will have the upper hand in the global food insecurity crisis caused by climate change.

Natural Resources

According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic contains around 13% of the world’s untapped oil deposits and 30% of the world’s untapped natural gas reserves. The Arctic is the backyard of Russia.

Russia will be able to harness these hidden mineral treasures as the permafrost melts and technological innovation and advancement continue. Russia is already the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas and the main exporter to Europe. Russian gas pipelines are Europe’s lifeline.

As the Middle East’s oil reserves diminish in the future, Russia’s natural resources will expand, giving Russia a geopolitical advantage.

Apart from this, Russia holds 15% of the world’s rare earth metal reserves, with more reserves expected to exist in Siberia. Rare earth elements are critical raw materials for the electronic industry. As a result, rare earth elements will also help to boost the Russian economy.

Northern Sea Route(NSR)

Despite having the largest coastlines in the world, most of the Russian coastline remains close round the year due to natural ice-locking, which is why, despite having the world’s longest coastline, the country only has four operational seaports.

Russia has always faced difficulties due to its natural ice-bound geographical location. Russia is also vulnerable to western invasion due to the natural ice locking. This is why ‘Peter the Great’ advised his successor to push westward, toward the Baltic and Black Seas.

However, this situation appears to be changing, as the Arctic region will remain mostly ice-free by the 2050s, allowing Russia to open the Northern Sea Route, or NSR.

(Attribution: Collin Knopp-Schwyn and Turkish Flame, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons) Blueline represent Northern Sea Route and the Redline represent Southern Sea Route

NSR is critical because it will shorten the distance between Shanghai and Rotterdam by 7,500 kilometres and also lower the transit time from 40 to 22 days. NSR will generate revenue for Russia in the same way as the Suez Canal generates revenue for Egypt.

Bridging the Digital Gap

Russia will also be able to connect via submarine high-speed fibre optic cable as the ice sheets melt in the Arctic. Russia can easily connect the NSR to Asia and Europe via these cables. Thus, to close the digital gap between Europe and Asia.

At the moment, the majority of cable runs through tropical waters, and very few cables connect Europe to Asia. These cables are responsible for up to 90% of global data and voice traffic. And if these cables pass from Russia, they will significantly bolster Russia’s geopolitical influence.

The USA, Loss of Superpower Image

America’s strategic challenges will also aid Russia’s ascension to superpower status.

By 2050, climate change may result in the eviction of 14 million Americans. Additionally, the majority of US military installations worldwide are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise effects. This would provide Russia with an opportunity to eclipse the U.S in global politics.

A US defence department analysis, in 2018, estimates that 1700 U.S military installations may require to be relocated, due to the rising sea level and extreme climates.

The food crisis will also have an effect on the United States’ dominance, as agriculture plays a significant role in US foreign policy. The US supplies 1/3 of soybeans and 13% of wheat globally, and this supply goes to 174 different countries, ensuring the US’s patrimony is maintained. However, some estimates indicate that the agriculture industry in the United States may contract by up to 90% by 2040.

Conclusion

In summary, a warming climate will result in massive sociopolitical and socioeconomic crises, with tropical and temperate countries bearing the brunt of these. However, Russia will maximize all potential benefits associated with climate change and its geographic location.

However, Marshal Burke is apprehensive of Russia’s easy benefits from climate change. Citing the low population of Russia, marshal says the country needs to put in efforts to reap the benefits of climate change.

Now, only time will tell how Russia will seize this opportunity and how the climate will alter the global socio-economic landscape.

I hope this post was worthwhile of your time, and I appreciate you taking the time to read it.

This is a frightening prognosis