Have you ever felt envious of someone who produces high quality output in a short amount of time?
In fact, many people who can do so-called work often use their heads differently than ordinary people .
In this article, I will introduce how to train the skill "Hypothetical Thinking" that is essential for conducting business efficiently.
Wɦat is Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg?
Hypothetical thinking is simply a way of thinking that looks ahead, "probably this will happen ."
A hypothesis is your own "tentative answer."
Rather than searching for an answer to a question from the grounds (= information or data), we first assume the most probable "provisional answer" from limited information, and then as if "back calculation". I'm going to find the rationale needed for the answer.
Hypothetical thinking may be called "backward thinking".
Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg prօcɛss
Hypothetical thinking basically consists of these four steps.
The key to producing more accurate output is not to end when you reach step 3, but to go around steps 1 to 3 .
Based on the knowledge gained in step 3, we will return to step 1 again and grow into a more reliable hypothesis while reinforcing the initial hypothesis at the first idea level with data and facts.
Bɛռɛʄits օʄ ʟɛarռiռɢ Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռɢ
Hypothetical thinking has many benefits.
Aɖʋaռtagɛ 1: Work speed and quality are improved
The merit of hypothetical thinking is that you do not have to do extra work by trial and error, so you can do speedly, concentrated and highly accurate work .
If you work without a hypothesis, it will take time to proceed with the work only by trial and error.
If you have infinite time, you may find the answer this way someday.
However, hypothetical thinking is essential because business always requires results in a limited amount of time .
Aɖʋaռtagɛ 2: You can quickly correct the trajectory
Since it is a "tentative answer", of course, in the process of analyzing and verifying the data, it may be found that it was a "wrong".
However, there are benefits even if the "tentative answer" is incorrect as a result.
Since it deviates from the story development that I had envisioned, I can quickly notice the mistake and get hints for making a new "temporary answer", so it is possible to correct the trajectory speedily and accurately. I can do it.
Wɦʏ Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg is bɛcօʍiռg ʍօrɛ aռɖ ʍօrɛ iʍpօrtaռt iռ tɦɛ cօʍiռɢ ɛra
Hypothetical thinking has often been treated as a way of thinking for consultants whose livelihood is problem solving at client companies.
However, in modern times, all business people need to wear hypothetical thinking .
In the past, there was a time when the numbers increased to some extent in the field of business as long as the past success patterns were done.
But now is the VUCA era, where the rapid evolution of technology is changing and unpredictable .
In such a situation, companies and individuals who can make decisions quickly by looking to the future and having hypotheses, rather than just being swept away by the times, will survive in the future .
3 waʏs tօ ɛռɦaռcɛ Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg
Hɛrɛ arɛ sօʍɛ pօiռts tօ ҡɛɛp iռ ʍiռɖ աɦɛռ ʟɛarռiռɢ Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg
Mɛtɦօɖ 1: Increase "withdrawals"
First of all, "knowledge" is indispensable for making a hypothesis.
The power to have a hypothesis depends on how much business and "drawers" you have to see things .
Without any drawers, you can't even set up an initial temporary construction.
There are two types of knowledge: "knowledge gained from experience" and "knowledge gained from learning."
[Hypothesis drawing = knowledge (experience + learning)]
"Knowledge obtained from experience" is accumulated in daily work.
While it is the most deeply engraved knowledge in the head, it has the disadvantages of being limited in width and depth and not giving a sense of the whole because it can only be obtained through what you can experience.
Complementing this is the "knowledge gained from learning" cultivated by systematically learning business.
Mɛtɦօɖ 2: Learn "questions"
Knowing the patterns of commonly used questions can help you make hypotheses.
The " business framework " is useful here .
For example, when working on a new product plan using 3C, which is a typical framework, you can translate it into a question and use it as it is.
・ Cʊstօʍɛʀ: Who are the target customers and why do they buy their products?
・ Cօʍpaռʏ: Do you meet the conditions for customers to buy?
・ Cօʍpɛtitօr: How will other companies take on the challenge?
Increase the number of business framework drawers and use them as clues to draw hypotheses.
Mɛtɦօɖ 3: Make a "usable hypothesis"
A "usable hypothesis" is a hypothesis that ultimately leads to a solution (action for solution) .
It makes sense for a business not only to analyze, but to actually take action and produce results.
For example, suppose that when your boss asks you to make a "proposal for strengthening sales capabilities," you make an initial provisional statement that "sales results may be polarized."
This alone does not lead to action even if the data can be validated.
Therefore, it is useful to ask your own hypothesis , "So What? ", To make a "usable hypothesis."
"Isn't the sales performance polarized?"
↓ So What? (So what?)
"I think it is necessary to raise the level of people with poor grades."
↓ So What? (So what?)
"I think people with poor grades are spending time working in the office and not being able to visit customers."
↓ So What? (So what?)
" Isn't it better to reduce wasted time and increase the number of visits
By repeating "So What? " In this way, actions for the actual solution You can see the hypothesis that leads to.
Tips ʄօr traiռiռg Hʏpօtɦɛticaʟ Tɦiռҡiռg iռ ɖaiʟʏ ʟiʄɛ
Hypothetical thinking can be learned by training, but it is not something that can be learned immediately.
In order to train hypothetical thinking, I would like to introduce what you should be aware of in your daily life.
① Train your logical thinking ability
② Correctly grasp the causal relationship
③ Become future-oriented
④ Predict the future from past քattɛʀռs
① Traiռ ʏօʊr ʟօgicaʟ tɦiռҡiռg abiʟitʏ
Logical thinking is a way of thinking that systematically organizes things and creates a path without contradictions and leaps.
This is the most important way of thinking that supports hypothetical thinking, so be sure to learn it .
It's easy to think of it as difficult, but everyone can wear it through training.
② Cօrrɛctʟʏ grasp tɦɛ caʊsaʟ rɛʟatiօռsɦip
In training hypothetical thinking, it is also important to "correctly grasp the causal relationship of things."
A causal relationship is a relationship between cause and effect .
What we often do during discussions is the "leap of logic."
Sometimes it's hard to see what the connection is based on.
For example, you often hear the story that AI may take over the job in the future.
Is that really the case?
Vague anxiety is often encouraged by "unfamiliarity".
Don't just leave the story that feels strange, but get in the habit of properly investigating and analyzing "what is the support" and "what is the basis" for the story .
③ Bɛcօʍɛ ʄʊtʊrɛ-օʀiɛռtɛɖ
It is also helpful to train your hypothetical thinking by always trying to keep your consciousness toward the future, such as "what will happen in one year" and "what will happen in five years" in your daily life.
For example, think with a question, "Is this product left in the future? Or will it be replaced by a more convenient product?" "While such clothes are popular now, how long will they be popular?"
The world is full of various information.
By all means, be curious about various things and collect information on a daily basis, and get in the habit of making your own hypothesis .
④ Prɛɖict tɦɛ ʄʊtʊʀɛ ʄrօʍ past pattɛrռs
A hint in predicting the future is to think about what kind of pattern has been repeated from the past to the present.
Look back on the past, think structurally, and notice a pattern.
By thinking about the future based on that pattern, "what will happen next?", The ability to create hypotheses will be refined .
sʊʍʍary
Hypothetical thinking may be the most important skill in the future.
First of all, be curious and interested in what is happening now, and always be aware of the problem.