Countdown to bitcoin halving: analysts outbid each other with extreme short targets

Just a few days before the third bitcoin halving, many self-proclaimed crypto experts outbid themselves with dubious price targets, forecasts and analyzes and thus damage the reputation of Bitcoin and Co.

• Upcoming halving creates euphoria
• Extreme price targets come at the expense of your reputation
• Bitcoin price already 125 percent above March low

Sensitive price targets and unrealistic assessments by self-proclaimed crypto experts about the future price development of bitcoin are almost as old as the digital currency itself. Right now, right before the third bitcoin halving, the analysts are outdoing themselves with exorbitant forecasts.

Bitcoin halving - the impetus for euphoria

Since the number of bitcoins available on the crypto market can only be increased through active mining, the so-called bitcoin miners put a lot of computing effort into the bitcoin network. As soon as they have calculated the completion of a new block, the miners receive a reward for this effort, which is called block reward. This serves as an incentive for the miners to make their own computing power available for calculating the individual blocks within the blockchain. For many miners, this activity is a very lucrative source of income.

So that the total number of 21 million available bitcoins is not reached too quickly, the code of the Bitcoin blockchain states that a so-called Bitcoin halving must always take place after 210,000 blocks have been calculated. The halving then ensures that the block payment for the miners is halved. While at the beginning of the digital currency, the block reward was still 50 Bitcoin, the reward will be halved in the coming days, for the third time in the history of Bitcoin. In a few days, the miners of the coins will only receive 6.25 instead of 12.5 bitcoins for the calculation of a new block within the network.

In order to keep the Bitcoin miners, who have to bear high energy costs due to their available computing power, happy despite a lower block reward, the price per Bitcoin must be adjusted as a result of halving. Because if the block remuneration halves and the price per Bitcoin does not rise, the lucrative mining suddenly becomes a loss business.

Crypto experts outdo each other with Kurzielen

The past shows that previous halvings have subsequently led to extraordinary price increases for Bitcoin. This fact now leads to many supposed crypto experts now proclaiming a new bull market for the digital currency. For example, the co-founder of crypto bank Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, firmly believes that Bitcoin will rise to around $ 50,000 after the halving.

Due to the currently very rapidly increasing prices on the crypto market, many other experts have increased and renewed their price targets in the past few days. These include the eternal Bitcoin bulls Tom Lee, Mike Novogratz and Anthony Pompliano. Price targets of well over $ 100,000 per Bitcoin are no longer an exception in these circles. "I'm officially increasing my target for Bitcoin. I made this forecast for the first time when it was $ 1 and I said it could climb up to $ 100,000. I'm increasing my official target for the first time for eight years and now say he climbs to $ 400,000, "said well-known television host Max Keizer in an interview with the news channel Infowars.

Furthermore, the US venture capital investor Tim Draper firmly believes that Bitcoin will climb to $ 250,000 by 2024. For 2028, Bobby Lee, the CEO of Bitcoin Wallet Ballet, has even spent a target price of $ 500,000. 

The past is no guarantee of the future

Such price targets, however, defy any fundamental basis and cause the entire crypto scene to lose reputation. Because well-founded and comprehensible analyzes usually do not need lurid and fictitious course goals. The Bitcoin bulls also do not know how the digital currency will develop in the future. Although the upcoming bitcoin halving theoretically speaks for a new rally, events from the past cannot simply be projected onto the future. Especially investors who believe in an efficient market should now ask themselves whether the effects of the upcoming bitcoin halving have long been priced in. Bitcoin has already gained well over 125 percent in value since its March low, at around $ 3,900.