Corona crisis: how to plan for the future despite uncertainty

Nobody knows exactly how things will go in and after the Corona crisis - in every respect: Public and private life and the economy are massive and indefinitely limited. Nevertheless or precisely because of this, it is important not to give up future planning.

If you want to prepare for the future during the Corona crisis, you cannot take a familiar planning route with precise forecasts as a guide. At the moment there are so many uncertainties that the plan is unlikely to work. Experts explain how to plan when everything seems uncertain.

Developing scenarios is essential

Günter Müller-Stewens is emeritus professor of business administration and explained to WirtschaftsWoche that in times of uncertainty no precise plans could be made, but rather the option room should be opened. Making accurate plans "requires predictions that are currently not possible." Therefore, it is now important to "develop scenarios and create choices."

Because: According to Müller-Stewens, it is known from brain research that people who develop scenarios recognize what lies ahead faster than others - regardless of whether the scenarios developed are true. So it's worth the effort.

"You have to do a permanent balancing of goods"

Entrepreneurs, according to Müller-Stewens, would have to do a permanent trade-off between economic damage and the well-being of the employees. A scenario development could help. When creating a scenario, it is important to incorporate the constantly new developments and to use different starting points such as the restriction of public life.

Fabian Sting, professor of business administration, researches the risks in supply chains. He recommends to WirtschaftsWoche to differentiate between known and unknown uncertainties - and not only during Corona times: Known risks are, for example, existing political conflicts, but a virus is a sudden occurrence and therefore unknown. In the best case, you should be prepared for both uncertainties. He describes the problem of the Corona crisis with the words: "The greatest challenge is to find the balance between efficiency and flexibility."

It will not be the same as before the crisis

People who, unlike entrepreneurs, are less affected by the effects of the measures should also think about their future. Because it is relatively certain that not everything will be as it was a few months ago. The Zukunftsinstitut presents four possible scenarios for the period after the crisis. These go from a "super safe society", in which everyone is next to themselves, through a permanent crisis mode to a resilient society that learns from the crisis.

Michael Horx, founder of the institute, uses the so-called Re-Gnose to look into the future. You put yourself in a future time and look back at the current present, so look at the situation as objectively as possible. This creates, he writes on his website, a different kind of future awareness, which can result in less dramatized forecasts.

If you listen to the experts, it becomes clear that those who plan for the future during Corona should definitely develop scenarios - otherwise failures are inevitable.