In 2020, the bitcoin rate increased by 49%, to the level of $ 10,700 on October 5. In mid-March, the first cryptocurrency dropped to a local minimum of $ 3800; in August, an annual maximum of about $ 12,400 was set.
In recent years, Q4 has become one of the most volatile periods for BTC. For example, in November 2018, the price of a major digital coin began to plummet from $ 6,500 and hit a low of $ 3,200 by mid-December. A year earlier, the situation was the opposite: the main growth of the coin began at the end of September from marks within $ 4,000, and in December 2017, Bitcoin set a historical maximum value of $ 20,000, having risen in price by 400% in two months.
1.1 "US Presidential Election Will Push Bitcoin Price"
To date, bitcoin has stabilized above $ 10,000, but interest in it as a volatile speculative asset remains at a high level, said Valery Petrov, RACIB Vice President for Market Development and Regulation. According to him, the upcoming presidential elections in the United States will only spur this interest, which may lead to an influx of money into the cryptocurrency market and push up the bitcoin rate.
"From the point of view of RACIB, levels above $ 11,000 are expected, prices may reach $ 11,500. In case of non-standard changes in the political arena, the volatility of the crypto market may even grow, which will lead to even higher quotes," predicts Petrov.
1.2 "It all depends on whether there will be a total lockdown"
Now, when there are no doubts at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic, the situation in the stock markets largely depends on what decisions the largest economies, primarily the United States, will make to curb the spread of infection, said Dmitry Kryshtal, Business Development Director of MonolithosDAO. The level of industrial production in the United States, the purchasing power of the population and other indicators that affect the entire world economy directly depend on whether it will be again a total lockdown or only point quarantines.
The negative scenario suggests a possible repeat of the March collapse, although the decline in stock indices may not be so rapid, followed by bitcoin, says Kryshtal. “The optimistic scenario is that the United States will not introduce tough lockdowns, the world economy will begin to recover, the stock market will continue to grow, then bitcoin has every chance to overcome the $ 15,000 mark by the end of the year,” the expert notes.
1.3 "Forecast within $ 10,000-12,000"
Bitcoin has an opportunity to rise, says Vladimir Panushkin, director of the Center for Social Matrix Technologies "Socioma". His forecast - fluctuations in the range of $ 10,000-12,000. This is due to the fact that the emotional background of the cryptocurrency market, very bright and energetic at the end of the summer, has now begun to work for preservation, not acquisition, the expert points out.
1.4 "The bullish trend will continue"
In the event of a second wave of coronavirus and new lockdowns, one would expect bitcoin to rise if one considers the cryptocurrency as a defensive asset, says Igor Kuchma, financial analyst at TradingView. The recent "sell-off" has not led to anything, so a return to the $ 11,600 level cannot be ruled out.
A breakout of the current consolidation could push the price back into a resistance zone of $ 11,600 to $ 12,300 or higher, he said. “The current policy on the part of the Fed, aimed at mitigating the effects of COVID, theoretically should lead to a further increase in inflation. This will fundamentally increase the value of gold and bitcoin, ”Kuchma believes.
He explained that the trend remains bullish for today and the recent consolidation, which is a series of lower highs and higher lows (also known as a triangle), indicates that the uptrend will continue.