The complexity of the network of the first cryptocurrency, despite the decline in its rate, remained at a level close to its all-time high. However, mining BTC even on aging devices continues to be profitable.
In September, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 8%, to $ 10,700, this was one of the reasons why the profitability of mining the first cryptocurrency fell by 11% compared to August. However, the recalculation of complexity, which took place on October 4, practically did not affect the indicator, leaving it at the level of 19.3 trillion hashes, which is close to the maximum.
The complexity of mining determines the amount of costs that a miner must incur to find a block in the cryptocurrency network. The higher the complexity, the more computing power is needed to run. The parameter automatically changes every two weeks, depending on several factors, in particular, on the time it took to find one block.
On average, it should take 10 minutes to find a block. If miners manage to find a block much faster than this time period, this suggests that mining cryptocurrency becomes easier and less costly. In this case, the recalculation increases the complexity, balancing the system. It also works in the opposite direction.
However, in early October, despite a significant drop in the profitability of cryptocurrency mining, the difficulty decreased by only 0.05%. According to Phillip Modnov, CEO of LAZM, the assessment of mining difficulty over two-week periods does not show the full picture. Launching data centers or transferring computing equipment takes a long time, plus possible accidents, technical outages. Therefore, the data for the month / quarter / half of the year are more informative.
"In recent weeks, there has been a jump in complexity as a consequence of the deterioration in the level of BTC production. Taking into account the stagnation (and even a slight drop in the BTC rate), a number of miners are clearly refusing to operate equipment (low-efficiency, or on conventionally expensive sites)", Modnov explained.
The main indicator for most miners is the break-even point of cryptocurrency mining. This means that the cost of calculating one coin, for example, bitcoin, is equal to its average market rate. If it falls below the break-even point, many miners decide to suspend production of the asset until the price recovers. This leads to a drop in the hash rate and a decrease in complexity.
Modnov said that for his company, the point of stopping equipment at current parameters is $ 8000 for devices such as Bitfury B8 / Antminer S9 and $ 4000 for more powerful equipment such as Antminer S17. Dmitry Shuvaev, director of development at BitCluster, called other figures. According to him, the break-even point for the S17 73th / s device is $ 5980, for the top Antminer S19 110th / s model - $ 4132.
Miners have different break-even points, as this value depends on many factors. For example, from the cost of renting premises, electricity prices, maintenance, and so on. Michael Jerlis, CEO and founder of EMCD, explained that each investor has a different entry point into the digital asset mining business. However, using modern tools such as hedging, research analytics and proper CVP analysis, the break-even point can be controlled.
Even aging devices like the Antminer S9 remain profitable. However, it makes no sense to buy such equipment new. On average, the payback period for new devices starts from a year. During this time, the difficulty of mining cryptocurrency is likely to grow even more. This means that the S9 will become even less efficient, and will probably not be able to pay off.
Experts recommend purchasing newer and more modern models. For example, Bitmain's Antminer S17 devices, taking into account the complexity of the network and the BTC rate, today bring from 6 thousand rubles. profitability per month (electricity costs at a price of 2.75 rubles per kWh are included), emphasized in BitCluster. This means that they will pay off on average in two years. In case of an increase in the value of bitcoin, this period will be reduced.