What is risk?
“Risk is the potential for uncontrolled loss of something of value.” (Wikipedia)
Since the beginning of March stocks plunged, Dow from almost 30,000 points landed hard on 20,000 points. As we might have expected, we thought that Bitcoin would take advantage of it but the opposite happened. From the highs of this year recorded around 10,400 USD it plunged over 50% to its min. 4,900 USD.
This week we have started to see the recovery in the crypto market however a lot of investors are remaining cautious. Some altcoins for example Dash increased over 50% in the last week, but there is still uncertainty in the market.
I have seen that some people who invested in cryptos wanted to go somewhere else.
But my question is where exactly?
We are looking for a safe heaven. Does it even exist during these stormy times?
A lot of people were betting on Gold which during the shock also plunged but now Gold is almost about reaching the record high levels.
Maybe the decision for me is much easier because I am currently living in Mexico and because all mechanisms of certainty just stopped working in our national economy.
I will tell you why: Our national currency was hitting its highs when Trump was elected and was threatening our country with the Trade war, back then in 2016 USD/MXN was around 22 pesos per USD. The new President Lopez Obrador kept our peso in a range between 18 and 20 USD, there was a perhaps too much stability.
However in the last month from the end of February, after the world stock shock our peso plunged, it came from 18.8 to 25.3 today. There is one theory in TA, which says, once you overpass the record highs there are very high probabilities of additional devaluation of your national fiat over 20%. Maybe the exchange will get under control but there are more possibilities that our exchange rate will go above 27 pesos per dollar.
I personally have expected this situation from a long time to happen.
Now talking about number, it’s over 35% of devaluation in 1 month. Other hard currencies aren’t doing that well either, Eur/Usd is around 1.07 – euro will start to flirt with the parity, if euro overpasses 1:1, we may easily see euro around 0.9 USD in the second part of the year, British Pound (GBP) fell to 1.17 per 1 USD, hope Brits will maintain GBP above parity.
Swiss Franc almost recovered from the shock and it’s very close to parity with USD.
Another theory is that investors during recession opt for USD and Swiss Franc. However it’s hard to evaluate which country will overcome this sudden hard landing. What I can almost predict that Eurozone will be affected by large shutdown of their third and fourth biggest economies – Italy and Spain.
Now some people think in recovery, and it’s quite plausible. After all the hardships for Bitcoin, our king recovered from 4,900 USD to 6,650 USD at this moment and is headed to fight a battle with the resistance located around 8,000 USD.
Some altcoins recovered, such as Dash – which went from 45 to 70 USD, BCH which went from 140 to 220 USD. Now you can see why I recently fell in love with Bitcoin Cash, in fact BCH is a better altcoin than most of the top altcoins; maybe a lot of will disagree but I prefer it to Litecoin, XRP and Ethereum. It managed to have better performance than Ethereum in the last months.
However a lot of altcoins are still in a standby which means that they start to make some small undecisive moves headed upwards. Hydro took a strong beating when it plunged from 0.00075 USD to 0.00021 but now it is around 0.0003.
However I would like to tell you that I realized also this: Despite all these ugly conditions, I was able to make profits for Refund token.
I will explain it a little how it works for me:
For example I obtained 0.02 BCH from my investors, got around 5,000,000 Honk tokens, then I sold them for 0.03 BCH and the same BCH was converted into 12,000,000 Honk. So even if the price of Honk goes lower, I am able to keep increasing value because I get more Honk and increase Bitcoin Cash holdings which has started to increase vs USD thanks God. Probably those are small amounts, but we are progressing as much as we can.
During my first cashback for investors, I achieved a profit of one fund (10% of total investment) around 1,000 % however the profit of these 2 weeks wasn’t that good – it’s around 80-120% but we are still capable earning this number because I don’t quit and I hunt opportunities. And now we are about to hit the total value of assets for 0.16 BCH scheduled for this weekend
What I do basically, I move BCH and Honk from one exchange to another. I have 3 places to do so: memo.cash, Bitcoin.com (it’s an exchange too) and Altilly. I feel like I got married to Honk and BCH, I know the prices what is convenient and what isn’t.
What I like about Honk trading on Altilly, I can trade it in 4 pairs: BCH, BTC (there are no operations), XQR (token of altilly) and Doge. So Honk, Doge, BCH, XQR never sleep – I make them i work 24/7 even on weekends.
I would like to outline here one fact that despite of this strong volatility in crypto market, there are tons of opportunities how to make cryptos and be increasing your worth.
For example I also realized another thing. Let’s suppose one number: My crypto worth was 100 USD, which 1,880 pesos one month ago, now let’s say this the worth even if it declined to 75 USD, it’s still 1,875 pesos. So I wouldn’t be losing money.
Now, maybe I want to have something secure without these beatings of altcoins, bitcoins and pesos.
What I will do?
Small investment into Swiss Franc (CHF) or into Swiss Franc stable coin, I recently have discovered that there is one stable coin pegged to CHF.
What am I expecting for these times?
Bull run or Sideway market for cryptos. After shocks there tends to be recovery.
I personally think there will short time recovery for Bitcoin and Altcoins – maybe for 1 quarter.
And there also can be another bear plunge as of June or July. I expect another stock market plunge between August and October of this year. But this time, we have one advantage, we had already this surprise in March so it won’t be that a new factor but we should get more ready for it because there may be more surprises.
However I strongly believe in one fact for all the crypto community has expected crypto recovery, I think we will have it, but I personally expect it for the last 2 months of this year and 2021.
BTC halving can also mean a pressure for Bitcoin itself. I hoped for Litecoin to increase after its halving last year but I was so wrong, it went from 100 USD to 40 USD in 2019 after halving.
This is what I expect personally but I also may be wrong; I strongly recommend to everybody to study the bases of Technical Analysis – if you are locked up during these times, take your time and check it out a little and also check expert’s opinion and candlestick charts for each crypto.
Whatever happens in the stock market, I will remain here because there are countless opportunities and lots of results for Refund token (RFND) have to delivered and lot of articles on Uptrennd have to be written as well.