Recently it is a big science popularization of dog names. What kind of dogs are Doge, Shiba, Akita? No matter what the dog is, it's all about frying. The bull market has rested, and the bear market is still early. People have joked that it is now a dog market. From air currency fake fakes to make up a grand story, esoteric and difficult technology, white papers full of mathematical formulas, roadmaps that bluff people into a daze, and overdraft trust to conduct so-called financing outside the law; to NFT calls it art the high price, and delivers a WYSIWYG electronic picture or animation, and then returns a lot of real money; then it doesn’t need anything at all when it comes to meme coins, the whole logo, build a website, Just send an ERC-20 token and put it on uniswap to start speculation. The story of rich wealth from tens of thousands of dollars speculation to wealth freedom in one or two months stimulates people's nerves. This is the so-called meme culture, complete reductionism. For the stir-fried leeks without studying, studying, or thinking, it provides the purest form of stir-fried leeks that have been stripped of all content that has nothing to do with the stir-frying. thing. Blockchain, with its freedom and openness, has become an excellent social experiment ground.
The madness of the dog market is its end. Rising prices will become the cause of price bursts. How does pure price speculation evaluate its due price level? This involves inferences about the irrational psychology of the masses. There is such an interesting question. Pick a number from 0 to 100. If the number you choose is closest to two-thirds of the average answer of all people, then you are the winner and you will win the super prize. So, which number should you choose, which is the most likely to win the grand prize?
Once you think about this question carefully, you will find that your answer will approach 1. Because the average of 0-100 is 50, two-thirds of 50 is 33; others will think the same, so they should choose two-thirds of 33, 22; others will also think of 22, so they should choose three-thirds of 22 The second, 15; keep repeating this reasoning, you can't stop at all, you will always advance to 1. However, the rationality and depth of thinking of people in the real world are extremely limited. What is the depth of thinking of most people? You can also think about two levels, that is, when you think about 22, it ends. In other words, most people can think "others will think like me" but cannot think "others can think others will think like me". Therefore, you should choose 15, which means that it is one level deeper than the public's thinking, and only one level deeper, instead of surpassing the public too many layers, one more layer is just right, this is the best choice to win the public. In fact, in 1987, someone really did this social experiment. The Financial Times published this question in the form of an advertisement, and the final average figure was 18.9. Therefore, those who can think a little more, choose 13 and win. The result of this experiment is a little bit smaller than the theoretical value of 15.
We use this purely human rational thinking defect principle to examine the price of Dogecoin. Since the current consensus target price of the popular order is $1, this price is enough to make Dogecoin into the top three market capitalizations, on par with Bitcoin and Ethereum. So smart speculators will definitely think: Will I believe in 1 dollar? The fool only believed the dollar that the dealer was calling. So what would I think? Definitely run before 1 dollar. Just estimate a discount. The 50% discount feels too early to satisfy my greed. The 20% discount is too dangerous. I’m afraid I can’t run away. Then compromise. The 40% discount is about two-thirds of the US dollar. That is a 0.6 dollar retreat. However, I think others will definitely think like me, 0.6 dollars retreat, then I must retreat before them. I'm so smart, I had expected them to think so, so I left early and gave them a 40% discount for 0.4 dollars.
This is what the old saying goes, seek from above, gain from it, seek from it, and gain from it. Calling 1 US dollar, the actual price must be less than 1 US dollar. For Bitcoin's current bull market, if everyone rationally believes that the top is $150,000, then it will definitely not reach $150,000. Only the masses are completely crazy and crazily believe that it will exceed 200,000 U.S. dollars, reach 300,000 U.S. dollars, or even 400,000 U.S. dollars, so that the eternal bull market, the top of this round of bull market is expected to reach 150,000 U.S. dollars.
There is nothing new under the sun. The crazy hype of meme coin has shocked many people. But in fact, as early as 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto discussed this issue with everyone. It's about the history of the failure of remonetization of silver. In the Bitcoin forum on July 9, 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto told everyone the story of the Hunter brothers who went bankrupt in 1979 when they hyped silver:
"Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt tried to monopolize the world silver market in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and once held more than half of the world’s deliverables. Silver. During Hunt's hoarding of precious metal silver, its price rose from US$11 per ounce in September 1979 to nearly US$50 per ounce in January 1980. Two months later, due to margin trading on commodities The rules were changed, and the price of silver eventually collapsed, falling below $11 an ounce, most of which fell sharply in one day, which is known today as Silver Thursday."
Satoshi Nakamoto has studied and thought about the process of price speculation and monetization. Pure price speculation is not enough to monetize Bitcoin, that is, from a scarce thing to a store of value asset and further becoming a medium of exchange. Not any air or meme, coupled with crazy hype, can become an asset or currency. Not all things with a so-called limited amount are scarce. For these very core underlying principles, most people are indistinguishable. It is based on in-depth thinking about the underlying principles of currency that Satoshi Nakamoto designed the operating mechanism and core parameters of Bitcoin, so that Bitcoin has superpowers similar to the magic of attracting stars, absorbing investment, speculative funds and speculation capital, as fuel , To help itself complete the great feat of a century of monetization process.