A Crypto Feuilleton
Looking through recent crypto reporting , assorted blogs and random
opinons of non certified financial writers I am truly amazed by the
ingenuity of authors, who come up weekly and often daily with
something to say about the topic.
Recently I met one of a rare specimen , an officially accredited
financial adviser. A CFA holder, a Chartered Financial Analyst ,
someone who was certified via mind boggling tests to assure
everyone he knows what he is talking about.
The gist of what he was saying was that top
research and analysis will help you if there is a trend to follow and
if you can lay a hand on reliable data . An exact day to day
prediction is not possible as price movements are random walks,
unless you move your markets yourself in the desired direction.
Decentralisation is a good idea like communism when Marx wrote about it,
the reality of course is the different interpretation of what it means
and how to get there. More quality data obviously will allow for a
better analysis, especially in hindsight.
A blockchain itself is a system centralized around it’s own coin
and governance token as well as assorted side projects running on it.
The next step in the evolution will have to be to bring big industry
into the blockchain space. Some start has been made already, like
the recent HBAR and others , who can see the benefit , efficiency
and profit.
The current use of Bitcoin as master colateral or guiding light
for the market is unfortunate as it will tend itself to be
susceptible to manipulation by ever larger entities who have their
hands full of fiat or are able to print fiat at will and hence
see crypto as an interesting sidekick.
Maybe we need more than one Bitcoin ?
Raw material markets will move into crypto space rather than rely
on fiat only. Recent , albeit, unhappy events already point into this direction.
Success for decentralisation may come if you need millions of whales
to act as one , especially if there are only thousands possible.
Luna seems to try to do this, but still needs some way to get there.
Once it has achieved this goal will it become too powerfull ?
What will be the future social contract between people ?
As blockchain technology evolves, people start to use it and
see the advantages compared to current fiat shenanigans
perpetrated by politicians who in most cases talk a lot but
do not have the faintest idea of how it all works.
There also is uncertainity about the actual people who
run the blockchains and the employed programmer teams as well as
the blockchain auditors. Who checks the auditors ?
Currently myriads of non certified financial writers, are the
knowing or unknowing biased source of information for the public.
Without any supervised standards of behaviour anyone can tell
anything they, their dog or a metaverse bot can dream up.
The words “Do your own research” usually invalidates some of the
good points written in many articles . I read the article in the hope
the author did the research , which can be relied on.
Can we have Certified Smart Article Writers , who are never wrong ?
We need blockchains being more active to ween people off fiat.
You earn crypto, you spent crypto in the shop, hotel and elsewhere.
This of course is more easily said than done.
Those who read these kind of articles know about crypto, but
most people still do not. They do not and can not care .
They know a wallet. They know there is not much inside.
With what they have , they can not be bothered to buy into any
token as long as there is fiat they can relate to in terms
of paying for the grocery.
Why shall I use crypto to pay for the extra transaction fee
if the vegetable I buy is already too expensive ?
I think this is the issue to overcome which need to be addressed.
Currently the blockchain gurus live in their own little fifdoms ,
while governments try to hold up their sky with CBDC reinvention of
fiat currencies. For the near future we will have a hybrid
system for everyone until any kinks are worked out and
crypto is easier to use and follow for the general population.
Try to explain to someone that your money is in the
electronic wallet , the wallet is an address which looks like
nothing you have ever seen before , has a great
security feature and password with 25 letters and numbers
which you can not remember. You are 87 and your fingertips
do not really work on the fingerprint reader.
The paper with the password got wet in the rain and you cannot read it.
You remember you have this card which is ok and accepted, now
the cashier asks you to put in the pin code to confirm
the transaction, the pin code was send to your phone
which you left at home so that you do not lose it while
foraging for vegetables. Luckily you still had a few fiat coins
in your pocket.
Given the current demographic distribution of more old and
less young people I believe the first blockchain which
overcomes these and similar issues will be the one who
wins the blockchain wars of the future .
Someone said : I do not need crypto , I will soon go to a retirement home .
To whom I said : I need it. I will go into the Metaverse and stay forever young.