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Bitcoin (BTC) had a small red candle last week as the largest cryptocurrency reached a two-year low as the citizens of the globe turned their attention to the World Cup in Qatar. The collapse of FTX still weighs heavily on Bitcoin and other risk assets as investors wonder which domino will fall next. Genesis Trading who holds around 650K BTC halted trading last week, not a good sign.
Remember inflation? Yes one of the big drivers of the crypto winter has almost been forgotten as of late. In the United States, the latest figures are encouraging which hopefully will lead to the Federal Reserve easing off the rate hike gas pedal. In Europe, things are a little more dire and the Central Bank there has been slow to raise rates so expect action there. Another big driver of cryptos dive was a rising US dollar, although it appears to be weakening as of late. If not for FTX, crypto may have been on the uptick.
From a technical and historical standpoint, we have some interesting opposing factors at play. Technically, we are seeing lower trading volume and at the same time the Bollinger Bands a getting closer indicating incoming volatility and more downward pressure. Historically, the crypto bear market has reached its typical length and percentage losses so this is when the market normally trends sideways for some time before heading up and to the right.
So have we reached the bottom? Historically speaking I would say yes but from a macroeconomic standpoint and current crypto market environment I would say no. Bitcoin could well fall down to the $12K level with more bad industry news given by how spooked the market is with $10K not out of the question if we have another FTX or Terra situation occur.
The Crypto fear and greed index, highlighted below, is at 21 and down three points from last week staying in the "extreme fear" range.
Take a break from thinking about Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market by watching some football. Today, I will be cheering on my birth country England and adopted country USA as they kick off their group stages.
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital cryptocurrency. Bitcoin was invented by the person or persons under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto as described in the Bitcoin Whitepaper released on October 31, 2008. The original cryptocurrency began trading in January of 2009 and could be transferred in a peer-to-peer fashion implemented using open-source software. The transactions are recorded and stored on a public ledger called a blockchain. Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be minted with one million being owned by its creator(s).