CryptoExplorers says
In the past two days, the CryptoExplorers has studied the 10-year Treasury bonds of the United States, refined and shared with everyone. The reason for studying U.S. debt is that the current Bitcoin market is completely dominated by U.S. institutions, and the strategy of U.S. institutions is to dynamically adjust according to Fed policy and market fluctuations. Therefore, the trend of U.S. bonds (especially 10-year Treasury bonds) It is particularly important here. If you understand the madman's words, you will be more confident about the future trend of Bitcoin for a period of time. The macro fundamentals look at the general trend, and technology and news are the fuse of the short-term trend.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield has recently continued to rise and has exceeded 1.5%. This means that the risk-free rate of return of the US dollar is 1.5%, which is already higher than the annual dividend rate of the stock market. We don’t care what the yield of the Treasury bond is. Soaring, this rate of return alone is sufficiently attractive for some large capitals to withdraw from the risk market. Therefore, when the U.S. Treasury yield rises sharply, it means that the risk market will show a downward trend.
Secondly, let’s talk about why U.S. Treasury yields have risen. The main reason is naturally continuous inflation. Although U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, the real interest rate of U.S. Treasuries (after deducting price increases) has still fallen. , Which means that when you lend money to the country, your purchasing power is still declining. This will further lead to a rise in U.S. bond yields, leading to a further fall in the capital market. Therefore, the Fed’s printing of money will accelerate the rise in prices on the one hand, and on the other hand the increase in U.S. bond yields, which will cause a large amount of funds to gradually withdraw from the risky market and choose safer bonds for investment. Therefore, the current epidemic has allowed the Fed to enter In an endless cycle stage, this performance is the continuous increase in the yields of US Treasuries printed with banknotes.
The overall logic is actually relatively simple. The CryptoExplorers sums it up for everyone: the Federal Reserve printing money-leading to an increase in inflation expectations-leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields (because the yields of buying U.S. Treasuries cannot outperform actual inflation, selling bonds causes yields to rise) – The risk market drops – the Fed accelerates money printing – inflation expectations are greater – interest rates continue to rise – the risk market continues to fall.
A bunch of big heads in the United States now seem to be caught in a very bad infinite loop. CryptoExplorers predict that this infinite loop will end when the epidemic becomes warmer. The solution is to quickly raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet and reclaim currency, as Powell said in his speech yesterday. ："Interest rate hikes will happen when the economy is fully recovered." So whether it is the current infinite loop or the future shrinking of the balance sheet, the cryptoexplorers will not see too much opportunity in the risky market, so the Bitcoin hype is likely to come to an end, combined Madman had previously judged the correction of the monthly line level, it should not be surprising that this wave of corrections consolidated for 2-3 months. In addition, Goldman Sachs expects the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note to rise to 1.9% by the end of the year, which is a bit scary.
The gray-scale negative premium has reached nearly 12%, a record low. On the one hand, the demand side is insufficient, on the other hand, the supply side is crazy. On the demand side, due to the increase in competing products, the adoption of ETFs, and the lack of optimism about the Bitcoin market, there are fewer and fewer institutions to buy Bitcoin through grayscale. On the supply side, a large number of locked GBTCs are unlocked and continued to make profits. It's over. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust also seems to have fallen into an infinite loop. No one buys negative premiums – keep unlocking – continue negative premiums – continue no one buys – causing panic. There are two final results. Either grayscale smashed BTC to protect GBTC, or proposed to the SEC that BTC can be redeemed through GBTC 1:1. Either way, the more than 600,000 bitcoins in Da Pai Yao’s belly will eventually be smashed. To the market.
There is also a very interesting data. Although Tesla has made 1 billion U.S. dollars since buying Bitcoin, the U.S. stock capital market has voted with its feet. The stock price has fallen by more than 30%, indicating that Tesla holds Bitcoin. The future expectation of the currency is very bad. From the side, we can see the true willingness of American institutions at this price.
The over-the-counter USDT premium rate is 1.5%, which shows that the funds entering the market through USDT are still flowing continuously. These people are investors who are down and waiting for bottom hunting.
21Shares AG will list Ethereum and BCH ETP on the Deutsche Börse on March 9. The European market is also compliant with the encryption market, which is still a very good sign in the long run.
The American Blockchain Association will meet with senior representatives of Biden zf on the supervision of encryption regulations, including Yellen, BlackRock executives and so on. The main purpose is to wash these big heads and help them understand the value of encrypted networks. It seems that the future of the US crypto market will be brighter.
The brokerage giant Charles Schwab is considering starting a cryptocurrency brokerage business. If this brokerage business opens up, a large number of investors will be rushed into the world. After all, it is one of the world's largest brokerage companies, and the future is still very bright.
Bloomberg wrote in the outlook that Bitcoin is accelerating to replace gold, and $100,000 is the next threshold. Madman agrees very much with this view. Although Bitcoin will have short-term pains, it will never affect the changes that Bitcoin brings to the world, let alone affect its long-term consensus and value.
Gemini launched a new fund to meet the needs of institutional custody. Cryptocurrency is really a blue ocean market, there is nothing, nothing to make money.
Kraken CEO thinks that it is very reasonable for Bitcoin to reach 1 million US dollars. This kind of shouting madman dislikes it very fast. The times are changing too fast, and no one can be sure about the future. Only through the continuous changes of the world every day, we can have a deeper understanding. this world. There are people who call for how much money, and the last time will always choose the right one. Therefore, we fry coins, prefer to speak logically, not to listen to letters and guesses at will.
The total lock-up volume of the Defi protocol is US$45.7 billion. The recent increase has not been obvious, indicating that Defi has entered a bottleneck period. Later Defi's hype will be expected to decrease. A new thing is needed to break through this bottleneck and enter a new growth space. Defi tokens will also fluctuate or pull back at high levels with the amount of locked positions.
Market analysis
Bitcoin:
CryptoExplorers wrote in his analysis yesterday that 52500 is likely to be the second top of the current round of market. Today the market has fallen again, which further confirms this point of view. At present, we have to pay attention to whether it can be supported near 45000. The madman believes that with the current bargaining army still, it is impossible to make a sudden downward swing. Therefore, in the short term, it is likely to oscillate around 45000-49000 for a few days. It coincides with the weekend, and this short-term shock will continue. It should be a boring period, waiting patiently for the direction after the shock. The big-level madman still thinks that the callback will continue, and the long-term bull market logic remains unchanged. This belongs to the callback phase of the bull market.
ETH:
Once again stepped back on support, short-term linkage pie shocks dominated.
DOT:
Continued stagflation at high levels is likely to cause selling pressure, and lighten up is the main focus.
XRP:
It hardened a bit and was pressed back, but it was stronger than other mainstreams, and there was still a certain rebound expected.
LINK:
Today, there is a sharp correction and heavy volume, so it is not suitable to participate.
BCH:
Weak, don't take the knife.
LTC:
Linkage is the main factor and shocks.
ADA:
Stepping back on the support has a certain rebound, after the rebound, it still falls back.
XMR:
Recently, it has been weaker, and it will be reduced every rebound.
DOGE:
The boss of Dallas Mavericks established a Dogecoin payment through Bitpay, but Doggo is still quiet, indicating that the funds that should be called in have been shouted out, and it is still not appropriate to be overly optimistic.
UNI:
It’s not a good thing to see Dobby’s super large transfers on the chain, and it’s probably a whale cashing out at a high level.
SUSHI:
After attracting more, it fell sharply today. If you participated in the chase before, you should stop the loss first after the rebound.
MKR:
Net income was about 6.6 million U.S. dollars. All indicators have grown pretty well. This is the value of Defi. Really profitable projects can use valuation to calculate its value. So Defi will look at it in the long run. There is still a lot of room for growth.
Nothing, it was shocked on the weekend, and there is a high probability that the adjustment will not be finished yet. If you are an investor who holds on a yearly basis, ignore such large fluctuations.
That's it for today, I wish you all a happy weekend
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