Bitcoin rallied on Monday, kicking off the week with a spike up to $61K before getting pulled back down, closing the daily candle just a hair under the $60K level. This is a bullish candle as Bitcoin continues to make higher highs and higher lows and possibly even forming a small inverted head and shoulders, repeatedly testing and retesting resistance at $60K; leading us to believe the dam is about to break to the upside.
(April 12, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin is about to break out to the upside; it's that obvious. This confluence of bullish technical patterns and price action scream higher prices soon, so I would be flabbergasted if Bitcoin is less than $65K by May 1. Bitcoin's repeated reaches above $60K reflect the massive buying pressure and decreasing supply that's contributing to a massive supply crisis that could cause a squeeze to the upside any day. Thousands of Bitcoin is flying off of exchanges on a daily basis, being sent to private and offline wallets. We should see a break to $65K, $70K, and very likely higher in the near future. Longer consolidation patterns like we've experienced since January typically result in longer and more intense breakouts, giving us plenty of momentum and ammunition for a sustained rally.
If Bitcoin breaks above $60K with an impulsive candle and clears $62K, that should open the floodgates to $65K and $70K in relatively short order. Given Bitcoin's mid-five-figure price now, multiple-thousand dollar intraday price swings are the norm. By that measure, $65K or even $70K might be too conservative to be considered a "rally." $100K is absolutely on the table for Q3, maybe even Q2.
Bitcoin's RSI is just about 63 and trading pretty flat but with plenty of upside.
Long-Term:
As you can see in the model below, we have yet to see the true bullish parabolic rally in which the majority of gains are seen. However, even if you believe in gradually lengthening cycles, you can't help but notice we're probably not far off from the next major wave up. If you account for a slight lag versus the previous bull market cycle, we are rapidly approaching a major rally to new highs which is to be followed by a brief pullback, and then a steep acceleration to exponential new highs.
Fundamentals:
2020-2021 has been a fascinating case study for the institutional inflows into Bitcoin, particularly how Bitcoin is siphoning capital that has historically been allocated to gold. This should come as no surprise, as gold has barely moved over the past 12 months whereas BTC is up over 1,000%. If this is a glimpse into the future, then this bodes poorly for gold and bullishly for Bitcoin over time.
Support: Immediate tentative support at $55K, 50 Day EMA at$50K.
Resistance: $60K, $65K, $70K, then $10K intervals up to $100K.
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