Bitcoin fell hard last week, dropping from near the highs around $60K to now around $45K, giving back all of the previous week's gains and more. This is a bearish candle, but Bitcoin is in a bull market and drops like these are to be expected. We'll be keeping our eyes on support levels, but see this as a buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity.
(February 28, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin's fall from $58K to $45K = 23%, a relatively standard (if conservative) correction. This correction looks similar to Bitcoin's January correction in which Bitcoin retraced 30% from $42K to $29K, only to relatively quickly turn around and resume higher a few weeks later. We're now over a week into this correction, indicating if this correction is to resemble January's BTC correction, then this should one should bottom this week if it hasn't already.
Long-Term:
Bitcoin is completing a Wave 2 correction which could have a bit more downside before it terminates but not much. This would put in a local bottom and higher low on our longer-term chart, as seen above. Bitcoin is firmly entrenched in a decisive bull market and longer-term uptrend. As history has shown multiple times before, in this asset class and others, buying the dips and HODLing is the only way to make money in a bull market. The one thing you absolutely cannot do during a bull market is short-sell (or sell early). It's always okay to take profits, but shorting Bitcoin has long-proved a fool's errand. Upon completion of this corrective W2, Bitcoin should continue to $60K and then march towards $100K. After that, who knows, but based on my chart above's W3 projection, increasing volume, and reset RSI, I think up it's irresponsible to not be long in Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.
Weekly Highlights:
First Bitcoin ETF listed in Canada
Morgan Stanley plans USA ETF
MicroStrategy bought >$1 billion more BTC
BlackRock started “dabbling” in BTC
Another $1.9 Trillion stimulus coming in March
Bitcoin miners have started accumulating again, for the first time since the 27th of December (Glassnode)
Another Bitcoin ETF will be launched in Canada by CI Global Asset Management
MIT announces 4-year project to strengthen Bitcoin Network Security.
Strategy:
Buy the dips. HODL. Stake for passive interest.
Traditional Markets
The 10 Yr Yield rallied to yearly highs, lifting the US dollar to nearly $91 on the DXY and putting additional pressure on gold which finished the week in the low $1,700s.
Support:
50% fib around $43.8K
Major support at $40K; absolute floor.
Resistance:
Immediate-term = roughly $60K.
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