Bitcoin fell again on Thursday, rallying earlier in the day again before the sellers regained control, giving back the gains and finishing the daily candle in the red down to just under the $48K level. This is a bearish candle as Bitcoin hasn't been able to pick up any steam since selling off, but we could simply be consolidating while Bitcoin shakes out any remaining weak hands before heading higher again.
(February 25, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Short-Term:
Bitcoin's short-term weakness continues as we drift sideways/slightly lower following a 25%+ selloff. $47K appears to be quite supportive, which is right around the 50 Day EMA, so I'll be looking for those two supportive factors to hold, which would give us a picture-perfect W2 bottom, setting up Bitcoin for a humongous Wave 3 rally higher. TLDR; the bottom is probably near.
If BTC falls below $47K, then I think $40K is almost certainly Bitcoin's floor at this point.
Long(er)-Term:
After Bitcoin completes this W2 correction, which should be no later than mid-March, Bitcoin should grind back higher as it begins a larger W3 higher (potential W3 of W3). A conservative measured move of 1.612% of the micro W1 that just terminated around $58K measures up to the 2.272% Fibonacci extension level around $99K. A more aggressive move measuring 2.612% of the recent W1 would send Bitcoin up closer to $125K (literally off my chart above).
Fundamentals:
Bitcoin's fundamentals have not changed; this is simply a short-term blip that should be bought unless proven otherwise. If you were waiting to buy the dip, now's the time.
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Support:
38.2% fib around $47.2K.
50% fib around $43.8K
$40K.
Resistance:
Immediate-term = roughly $60K.
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