Ethereum rallied again last week, finding support earlier in the week and reaching over the $2,000 mark later in the week before pulling back a bit over the week, closing the weekly candle just under $2,000 around $1,935. This is a bullish candle as ETH prints another higher low and higher high, setting a new ATH and is undervalued against Bitcoin.
(February 21, 2020 7:30 PM EST)
Outlook:
Ethereum continues its ascent towards $2,000, its immediate-term target and a major milestone as ETH looks to ascend into the multi-four-figures for the first time in this next market cycle higher. As you can see in the chart above, my primary view is a minimum $2,000 price target that could extend up to about $3,200 depending on the magnitude of this breakout; based on the heightened inflows into crypto before and now especially after the Gamestop v. Wall Street war, conservative projections can and likely will be exceeded. The trend is up across all timeframes, the question is whether ETH breaks higher immediately or gets rejected by $2,000 in the short-term, only to then breakout higher shortly thereafter.
In many ways, ETH appears to follow BTC inexactly as ETH interestingly mimics BTC's previous market cycles, following a similar price cycle up and down, and even somewhat tracking the same highs and lows. Now, if that was the case, then ETH is in the early stages of Bitcoin's 2016-2017 cycle, which, of course, Bitcoin topped around $20K. Now, that's not to say that ETH has to follow BTC to $20K exactly like BTC did, however, it wouldn't be unusual for ETH to track a similar trajectory up to $10K or so and maybe even wick higher on a blowoff top, depending on the intensity of the impulsive Wave 5 late in the cycle.
In the ETH/BTC chart below, you can see ETH has struggled against Bitcoin, dropping below 0.04 and more recently the 50 Week EMA as well. However, this is following a major rally to start 2021, indicating this pullback may be a corrective Wave 2. If this is the case, then we may be approaching a local bottom/higher low, indicating a low-risk level to add to longs before reversing back higher. If ETH can find support at the 61.8% fib around 0.0317 or the 200 Week EMA slightly lower, and bounce from there, we'll look for ETH to break above 0.04 and resume the uptrend to higher highs in satoshis.
Historically, the ETH/BTC ratio trades between the 0.04 and 0.08 level, and typically peaks during bull markets north of 0.10 ETH/BTC, so as you can see based on this ratio, ETH is quite low historically in this respect, even below 0.04 again. As far as price targets go, 0.04 and more importantly 0.05 are our immediate price targets, which at roughly $57,000 BTC would equate to $2,280 and roughly $2,850 respectively.
From my perspective, all signs indicate it's probably wise to buy ETH or earn ETH now before prices continue to ascend in dramatic throughout the rest of 2021 and further. Buying ETH under $2,000 is like buying Bitcoin under $30K; not much higher than the previous ATH, and not likely to last much longer.
Support: Look for immediate support around $1,750, which was supportive recently, and then $1,500, a stronger and previous resistance level.
Resistance: Immediate-term price target and resistance of $2,000. Above that, look for resistance around $2,500 and then $3,000.
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