Ethereum broke out, breaking above the $2,500 level late last week and north of $3,000 early on Monday. This is extremely bullish as ETH has pushed to new ATHs in USD and BTC pairings, and is now closer to larger, more significant price targets such as $5,000 and 0.1 ETH/BTC than 0.
(May 3, 2021 8:30 PM EST)
Short-Term:
ETH's USD breakout is great but the more significant accomplishment is breaking above the 0.05 ETH/BTC level, a major resistance level on the road back to historical highs in satoshis, marking the halfway mark to 0.1 ETH/BTC and the lower end of the typical bull market "top" range. As you can see, we're still a ways from there, but we're starting to make substantive progress, so as crypto continues to grow and BTC continues to rise, ETH should benefit as well.
The answer to the title? Not close.
Given the mainstream adoption of crypto, layer 2 scaling solutions, and fiat hyperinflation, ETH could easily double or even triple in value in BTC. In fact, I'd say ETH is better positioned now than it was in January 2018 to reach a cycle peak around 0.14, whereas now it more easily justify 0.15 or maybe even 0.2.
ETH's widely anticipated EIP-1559 launch in June should provide another boon to prices as it the EIP will change the fee structure and burn millions in fees as opposed to reissuing them to miners, essentially putting a cap on the monetary supply or possibly even making it deflationary
Weekly Chart:
ETH/BTC:
ETH breaking above 0.05 is eye-opening but I'll be looking to see how ETH finishes this weekly candle. If it closes above the 0.05 level, then we may go looking higher. If ETH spikes up to 0.055 or even 0.06 and then retreats back under 0.05, then we should look for a pullback to a new higher low around the 0.04 level leading up to London Hard Fork in June. It's also worth mentioning that, as you can see in the ETH/BTC chart above, ETH has broken well above the upper ascending trendline, indicating a move away from the standard deviation. These breakouts can be impulsive and dramatic in intensity, but eventually revert to the mean. We are progressing nicely but remember, alts tend to have most of their gains last in bull market cycles, so by that measure ETH likely is just building up for a parabolic run in late 2021 or early 2022, much like 2017-2018.
Support: $2,500 and/or 200 Week EMA at 0.042 ETH/BTC.
Resistance: $3,500 and/or 0.06 ETH/BTC.