Bitcoin rallied a bit on Monday, initiating pulling back to about the $46K level before turning around and rallying to nearly $50K, closing the daily candle just above $48K. This is a neutral to slightly bullish Doji candle as Bitcoin found buyers to buy the dip, taking us back to the highs as Bitcoin continues to form another ascending triangle pointing to higher prices ahead.
(February 15, 2021 7:30PM EST)
Outlook:
Bitcoin continues to print higher lows and higher highs and is trading in a nice ascending triangle right now that is pointing higher. This leads us to believe that Bitcoin will breakout higher, indicating a bullish break above the $50K level which is a major psychological milestone for Bitcoin in terms of price and market cap. A breakout higher would likely lift BTC to $55K, which would roughly equal a $1T Bitcoin market cap which would then enable more conservative companies and funds to take long positions on Bitcoin given the inherent size and liquidity of the asset class.
For now, we're buying dips and watching for a breakout higher, as once Bitcoin prints an impulsive bullish candle above $50K, the next logical stop wouldn't be until at least $55K, $60K, or maybe even $75K. Bitcoin continues to move in ~$10,000 ranges which allows for fairly predictable S/R ranges, and given the bullish direction of the market, it's really just a matter of finding a lower-risk entry for you (if that's your prerogative) at retracements.
The fundamentals continue to be driven by institutional demand that exceeds the daily amount of Bitcoin mined (PayPal), programmatically decreasing monetary supply (next halving in May 2024), fiat inflation at the biggest scale in history (22% of US dollars ever printed were printed in 2020), and a wave of institutional investors are now entering Bitcoin positions for the first time (BNY Melon, Twitter, Tesla, etc.).
In the meantime, we are simply in a buy the dips and HODL mode as Bitcoin grinds higher.
Traditional Markets
In traditional markets, gold struggled again, drifting lower to under $1,820 on the daily despite the US dollar also falling, trading below the 50 Day EMA and just above $90.
Support:
Look for tentative support at the $45K level, then $40K which should offer plenty of support.
Resistance:
Look for resistance at $50K, then $55K which roughly equates to a $1 trillion market cap for Bitcoin, then $60K, then every $10K until $100K.
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